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      叁 蝴蝶效應(yīng)

      而推動(dòng)酒價(jià)下跌的原因可能與該高端白酒的基本面并無(wú)太大關(guān)系。據(jù)報(bào)道該白酒收藏者中的一些地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商因資金緊張而拋出大量存貨，從而推動(dòng)百酒價(jià)格下降。所以，看上去似乎是因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)行業(yè)出問(wèn)題而波及了另一個(gè)不相干的行業(yè)。但經(jīng)濟(jì)中各個(gè)行業(yè)都有千絲萬(wàn)縷的聯(lián)系，蝴蝶效應(yīng)其實(shí)在經(jīng)濟(jì)中并不少見。在經(jīng)濟(jì)上行期，我們能看到一榮俱榮；經(jīng)濟(jì)下行期，就是一損俱損。

      肆 總體市場(chǎng)沒有泡沫

      投資人需特別警惕那些有泡沫的領(lǐng)域，這些領(lǐng)域通常是人群聚集的地方，在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行期也易發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件。A股市場(chǎng)總體估值較低，不存在泡沫。上證指數(shù)在2021年10月29日（下同）的靜態(tài)市盈率為13.7倍，處于歷史上18.4%的分位；深成指靜態(tài)市盈率為26.9倍，處在歷史上58.4%的分位。深成指估值相對(duì)較高主要是因?yàn)閯?chuàng)業(yè)板估值較高。創(chuàng)業(yè)板指靜態(tài)市盈率為63.3倍，處在歷史上80.2%的分位。從估值角度看，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指可能存在一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。創(chuàng)業(yè)板指前十大權(quán)重股中部分個(gè)股3季度業(yè)績(jī)低于預(yù)期，如這些個(gè)股基本面持續(xù)不佳可能會(huì)拖累板塊表現(xiàn)。

      伍 美股上周表現(xiàn)佳

      上周全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)指數(shù)上周漲跌各一半。其中恒生指數(shù)下跌2.9%，跌幅最大；上證指數(shù)和深成指分別下跌0.3%和1%。3季報(bào)部分公司業(yè)績(jī)不及預(yù)期，導(dǎo)致A股和港股調(diào)整。納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)、法國(guó)指數(shù)和標(biāo)普500分別上漲2.7%、1.4%和1.3%，表現(xiàn)最佳。美股業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期，推動(dòng)股市上行。10月中國(guó)官方制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)繼續(xù)下滑至49.2，表明經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在下行中。

I. Liquor prices fell 

It was reported that prices of a high-end liquor went down sharply lately, which was partly due to that its company allowed the liquor to be sold inboxes. From the beginning of 2021 till now this company did not allow the liquor to be sold in boxes hoping to curb its prices. But due to that the liquor is more easily stored, sold and certified in boxes, a bottle of liquor in boxes costs RMB 300 more than those sold in bottles. 

II. Speculation is playing a key role

As we analyzed in “The crash of those high-flying stocks “茅股”崩盤背后” this high-end liquor is not only bought for consumption but also for speculation. Some investors even leveraged to buy the liquor in hope for the prices to  go up further and make money. With the prices down these investors likely were forced to sell the liquor as their leverages became a burden. 

III. Butterfly effect 

It was also reported that some property developers sold the liquor as they were faced with liquidity crunch. While this seems to be a butterfly effect it is not unusual in economy as all things link together. One sector rises with other sectors when economy goes up and vice versa when economy goes down. 

IV. No bubbles in broad market 

At this moment investors should take some caution in those areas with bubbles. There seems to be no bubbles in the broad market: Shanghai Composite Index is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTWPE) of 13.5x and at 18.3% percentile in about 30 years. But Chinext Board is valued at 63.3x at 80.2% percentile in history, which looks risky. Some top-10 weighting stocks in Chinext Board missed on 3Q2021 earnings. If their fundamentals deteriorate further then Chinext Board might suffer Davis double-killing.

V. The US stocks performed the best  

Both A-share and HK stocks fell last week due to the weaker-than-expected earnings in 3Q2021.  Hang Seng Index in HK market fell 2.9% and was the worst-performing index among global 16 major stock indexes. The US stocks led the global markets due to better-than-expected earnings in 3Q2021. China official Purchasing Managers’ Index in October came in at 49.2%, reflecting that China’s economy is still sliding. 

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