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      壹 滲透率達到10%

      產品或服務的滲透率與行業的生命周期緊密相關。在滲透率從0-10%的時候，行業處在初創期。這一階段行業增速呈現直線式上升。一旦達到10%的滲透率，行業就進入快速成長期。10%常常被視為需求爆發的臨界點，英文叫做critical mass。

      貳 新能源汽車

      以新能源汽車為例：從2009年我國發布《汽車產業調整和振興規劃》，正式啟動對新能源汽車的補貼，到2015年我國新能源汽車滲透率首次突破1%，用了6年；從2015年1%的滲透率到2019年的4.7%滲透率，用了四年。2020年雖然有疫情的阻礙，但新能源汽車滲透率仍然提升到5.8%。截止2021年9月底，新能源汽車市場滲透率為17.3%，新能源乘用車市場滲透率達到19.5%。也就是說，從5.8%到近20%的滲透率只用了大半年的時間。

      叁 仍將保持快速增長

      有市場參與者預計到2025年新能源汽車滲透率將達到50%，也即行業可以在未來四年內增長2.5倍以上，年復合增速約為37%。雖然和今年的增速不可同日耳語，但也是很快的增速。2020年下半年，中國純電的乘用車市場開始進入一個爆發期，并呈現與過去不一樣的驅動力。2020年之前，中國電動車的銷量增長主要是靠運營車輛，包括出租車、網約車等，這些車輛使用電動車可拿到新能源汽車補貼。但2020年補貼退坡以后，個人購車的需求大大幅提升，也即新能源汽車行業的增長驅動力變成了個人消費，這反而給行業發展提供了堅實持久的動力。

      肆 40%的滲透率

      當一個行業的滲透率達到40%后，行業進入成熟期。這一階段行業增速逐漸變慢，競爭加劇，新進入者搶奪頭部企業的市場份額，行業的利潤率出現拐點。這一階段盡管企業的盈利仍然增長，但已開始了戴維斯雙殺中的殺估值階段。當企業盈利開始下滑后，就開始殺盈利階段。歷史上有很多企業在其產品滲透率達到40%之際，股票市值也達到高點，如中移動和諾基亞，都是在全國手機和全球手機滲透率達到40%的時候達到市值高點。根據新能源汽車的增速和滲透率，行業進入戴維斯雙殺的時間可能并不遙遠。

      伍 全球股市調整

      A股和港股下跌。港股科技指數在連續上漲后三連跌，疑為獲利資金了解。煤炭板塊跌幅居前，國家擬對煤炭行業征收暴利稅。美股從高位滑落。

I. Penetration rate and sector's development stages  

Penetration rate of a product or service is correlated closely with sector development stages. When the penetration rate goes from 0%to 10%, the sector growth is the fastest. This stage is called the initial stage of a sector. 10% is usually called critical mass. After the penetration rate reaches 10% the sector goes into growth stage. 

II. New energy vehicle sector

Take the example of new energy vehicle (NEV) sector. In 2009 China issued the Plan for auto sector adjustment and development and began to subsidize new energy vehicles. By 2015 NEV’s penetration rate reached 1%, meaning that it took six years for penetration rate to increase from 0% to 1%. It took another four years for penetration rate to increase from 1% to 4.7% in 2019. In 2020 penetration rate of NEV reached 5.8%. By September 2021 the penetration rate of NEV reached 17.3% and that of new energy passenger cars reached 19.5%. This implies that it only took a little more than half a year for penetration rate to improve from 5%-plus to nearly 20%. 

III. Fast growth could be maintained 

Some expert in NEV sector predicted that NEV’s penetration rate would reach 50% by 2025,meaning that NEV market would expand by 2.5 times and compound annual growth rate would be around 37%. This is pretty fast. In 2020 when subsidies for NEV went off, Chinese consumers began to buy NEV and are the main driver of the fast growth of NEV sector. 

IV. Development stage

When a sector’s penetration rate reaches 40-50% the sector enters development stage. The sector’s growth rate slows down and sector’s margin becomes thinner due to that the new entrants enhance competition. According to historical experience many technical companies’ market cap reached the top with their products or services’ penetration reaching 40%. A case in point is China Mobile and Nokia, which saw the peak of market cap when China’s and global mobile phone penetration rate reached 40% respectively. It seems that it would not take too much time for NEV’s penetration rate to reach 40%.

V. Stocks corrected

Both A-share and HK stocks fell. The Tech stocks in HK market declined for three days in a row. US stocks also slipped from record levels.

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