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      壹 新股破發

      A股市場近期不斷有新股破發。一是科創板和創業板上市的新股估值過高，有些個股定價在幾十倍的市盈率，遠高于行業平均水平，首日破發也是可以理解的；另一方面，也反應了市場當前的熱度不足以及IPO項目對市場資金的分流。今年前三季度共有373家企業登陸A股，逼近去年全年新股數394家，有業內人士稱今年新股數有望達到500家，再創新紀錄。如果新股破發的現象持續，相信管理層會對IPO節奏進行調整。港股市場一直是全球IPO前幾位的市場。如果市場低迷，做承銷業務的投行將會與擬上市公司溝通，選擇更好的時間窗口進行IPO，這樣可以獲得更好的定價。相信隨著A股市場注冊制的不斷推進，國內的券商也會幫助上市公司選擇較好的時間窗口進行IPO。近期不僅新股破發，基金募集提前結束或失敗的消息也頻頻見諸報端，顯示市場的“冷”正在慢慢擴散。

      貳 熱門板塊

      另一方面，很多熱門板塊卻屢創新高。周一，受到新能源車強勁增長的帶動以及國家發布碳中和碳達峰相關文件的消息刺激，新能源和儲能板塊大幅上漲。9月單月國內新能車銷量35.7萬輛，同比增長148.8%，環比增長11.4%，滲透率達17.3%，其中新能源乘用車市場滲透率超過19%。2021年1-9月動力電池累計裝機量達92GWH，同比增長169.1%。9月單月裝機量達15.7GWh，同比增長138.6%，環比增長25%。今年新能源車的增速超出市場預期，A股相關板塊也表現靚麗。但其中一些股票的估值在三位數市盈率，利好應已經在股價中。

      叁 行業表現

      市場冷與熱的鮮明對照還體現在行業的表現上。年初至今（截止2021年10月25日），A股28個行業中12個上漲，16個下跌。其中漲幅最高的三個板塊采掘、電氣設備和有色金屬分別上漲53.3%、51.7%和43.3%，而跌幅最大的三個板塊家用電器、非銀金融和傳媒分別下跌21.7%、17.7%和17.1%。我們在翻倍股和腰斬股中分析過股價過熱后就會回調，而股價跌幅較大后也存在反彈的需求。

      肆 美股新高

      A股上漲而港股下跌。美股再創新高，美國國債收益率大幅走低。

I. IPOs do not perform well 

The IPO debut recently has been lackluster. One reason is that for those to be listed in Chinext and STAR Board they were priced too high. Some of them were issued at 60-70x price-to-earnings ratio, much higher than their sectors’ valuation levels. Another reason is that market seems not as hot as previously. By the end of 3rd quarter there were 373 companies got listed in A-share, which is close to 394 in 2020. It is estimated that 500 companies would be got listed in A-share this year. We deem that supervising agencies might cut the numbers of IPOs if market continues to perform poorly.In HK market underwriting investment banks for IPOs would communicate with companies if market turns negative. This is what an underwriter should do under the registration system. We believe that in the future Chinese brokerages would also do the same thing. By 18th September 22 mutual funds failed to raise enough funds and could not be set up. 

II. Hot sectors

But on the other hand,some hot sectors have notched new highs. Sales volume in new energy vehicles in September reached 357000, up 148.8% year-on-year and 11.4% month-on-month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 17.3% and that of new energy passenger cars has reached 19%. Moreover, the central government issued a new document on carbon neutral and carbon emission peak. The new energy sector rallied on Monday on these two pieces of news. Yet some stocks’ valuation is hefty and it might have priced in all of the good news. 

III. Sector performance diverged

The hotness and coolness of A-share is also reflected in sector performance year-to-date. Among the 28 sectors 12 sectors rose while the remaining 16 sectors fell. The top three best-performing sectors are mining, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal, which rose 53.3%,51.7% and 43.3% respectively. While the three worst-performing sectors are home appliance, non-bank financials and media, which fell 21.7%,17.7%and 17.1%. But things might change with time passing by.

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