壹 食品在消費者價格指數中占比最高
近期蔬菜價格上漲，有的蔬菜單價已經超過豬肉價格。這會不會對消費者價格指數產生上行壓力？在我國消費者價格指數中，食品占比20.9%，是消費者價格指數中占比最高的項目。食品中占比最高的項目是畜肉類，占比5.42%；而其中豬肉占比最高，占消費者價格指數的比例為3.31%。鮮菜是食品項目中占比第二高的，比例為2.48%。
貳 中美消費者價格指數構成差異
中國和美國的消費者價格指數構成有較大差異。美國的消費者價格指數中占比最高的是住房價格，占比41.02%，主要指租房價格，其含義跟我國消費者價格指數的居住價格是一致的。其次是交通，占比為16.87%。食品價格占比第三，為15.25%。中美兩國消費者價格指數中食品占比差異是經濟發展水平所決定的。美國人均可支配收入食品的支出占比不到10%，而我國則接近30%。因此，食品對我國消費者價格指數的影響較大。
叁 鮮菜上漲的原因
鮮菜作為食品中第二大權重項，其對消費者價格指數也有較大影響。近期蔬菜價格的上漲一方面是因為原材料價格的上漲傳導到了蔬菜種植端，種子和化肥成本上漲增加了種植成本，而油價上漲也增加了運輸費。另一方面，個別省份接連遭受水災，很多葉子菜被雨水泡了爛在地里，造成蔬菜大量減產。今年天氣降溫也早于往年，造成蔬菜生長緩慢。最后，北方蔬菜退市，也推動了蔬菜價格上漲。蔬菜價格上漲推動消費者價格指數上漲時有發生。
肆不會對貨幣政策產生影響
2020年12月也是因為自然災害、低溫和運輸成本增加導致蔬菜價格上漲，使得“白菜價”不再是便宜的代名詞。蔬菜價格上漲短期將會推升消費者價格指數，但隨著蔬菜供應增加，蔬菜價格就會從高位回落。蔬菜價格真正回到低位恐怕需要到明年2月份，考慮到冬季蔬菜供應少于其他季節，疊加春節之前食品價格均會趨勢性上漲。我們認為蔬菜價格上漲也不會對央行的貨幣政策產生較大影響。一個是因為這是一個短期現象；另外，央行應該更關注核心消費者價格指數，而后者不包括食品價格。核心消費者價格指數與居住成本相關度較大。
伍 房地產稅長期利好股市
房地產稅將會打壓投資性需求，推動資金從房地產市場轉入股票市場，長期利好股市。美股連漲3周，道指和標普均創出歷史新高。標普5003季度業績預計增長35%。本周大的科技公司包括臉書、谷歌等報告3季報業績。
I. Vegetable prices have been on a soar recently
Some worry that the rising vegetable prices would cause monetary policy to become stringent. We believe this would not happen. Among China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) foods take the biggest weighting at 20.9%. Meat takes the largest weighting among foods at 5.42% while swine takes the largest weighting at 3.31%. Vegetable takes the second largest weighting among foods at 2.48%.
II. China and the US CPI weightings are different
The weighting of China’s CPI is different from that of the US. In the US CPI the largest weighting is residential cost, which mainly refers torental cost. Its weighting is 41.02%. The second largest weighting is transportation costs at 16.87%. Foods take the third largest weighting at 15.25%. The reason of the differences lies in the economic levels. In the US consumer only spends less than 10% of their disposable income on foods compared with close to 30% in China.
III. Several factors caused vegetable prices to rise
The vegetable prices increase in China was due to several factors.The first is the rising costs of planting and transportation costs as oil,chemical fertilizer and seeds costs rose with the raw material prices increase.The second is floods in some provinces, which caused vegetables to be flooded and supply shortage. The third one is fast-falling temperature, which made vegetables grow more slowly. The last one is that vegetable supply in the northern part of China came to a close.
IV. It is not a concern
Rising vegetable prices would push up CPI. But this happens from time to time.The most recent one was last December, when rising transportation costs, low temperature and natural disaster caused vegetable supply shortage. We expect the high vegetable prices to come down with supply increase. But it might maintain at a relatively high level until Feb.2022 as food prices would be on a rising trend before the Spring Festival. China’s monetary policy seems to follow core CPI more closely, which excludes food and energy prices.
V. Property tax would be levied in China
Property tax would push out investment demands for property, which is beneficial for stock markets in the long run.
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