壹 對Taper 的擔憂
A股近期走勢平平，遠不及美股和港股走勢靚麗。我們認為一個原因是市場對美聯儲縮減債券規模有所擔心。美聯儲預計將在11月4日議息會議結束后的新聞發布會上宣布縮減債券購買規模，并從12月份開始實行。近期美國國債收益率持續走高，從9月份最低的1.28%上漲到1.65%，短短一個多月的時間上漲了37個基點。美國國債收益率上漲對A股投資人造成一定的壓力，但并沒有阻斷北上資金投資A股的熱情。截止10月21日，北上資金本月凈流入84.5億人民幣，延續了年初至今每月都凈流入的狀態。
貳 對業績的擔憂
另外一個原因是對業績的擔憂。截至2021年10月20日，A股已披露上市公司預告數量為1103家，其中周期板塊表現較好，有色金屬、采掘、化工、鋼鐵行業已披露上市公司2021Q3利潤同比增速為191%、115%、222%、156%。而食品飲料、商業貿易、農林牧漁表現欠佳，業績同比增速分別為-275%、-129%、-249%。由于預披露的公司業績同比增速或者超過50%，或者低于50%，一些景氣行業預披露的公司代表行業最好的業績，整體行業的業績增速應沒有預披露的業績高；而景氣度較低的行業的業績可能也比披露的好。市場預期3季報業績增速將從2季度的高位回落。受上游原材料價格上漲的影響，中游制造業毛利率受到擠壓的現象比較普遍。
叁 擔憂需要時間緩解
肆 美股再創新高
A股和港股下跌。金融和房地產板塊走強。高層認為恒大的風險不會外溢，給市場提供了信心。美國上周申請失業救濟人數好于預期，標普500連續7天上漲，創出歷史新高。因特斯拉業績超預期，科技股上漲。美股過去20年，通脹和利潤率水平是成正比的。有知名策略分析師認為不應該擔憂通脹擠壓利潤率水平。不過如此高的通脹水平沒有對利潤率水平構成壓力可能也是因為流動性非常充裕。
I. concern about taper
A-share lagged behind HK market and the US stock market after the National Day holidays. One concern might be taper. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce taper on Nov. 4thand execute in December.The US 10-year Treasury Yield rose from 1.28% in September to 1.65%, i.e., up 37 basis points in one month plus. Yet north-bound capital has maintained net inflow in October so far at RMB 8.45 billion. This year north-bound capital maintained net inflow for every month.
II. Concern about earnings growth
The second reason might be concerns about 3rdquarter earnings. By October 20th there were 1105 companies in A share that pre-disclosed 3rd quarter earnings. Cyclical sectors performed well. 3rd quarter earnings in non-ferrous metals, mining, petrochemical, and iron and steel rose 191%、115%、222% and 156% year-on-year (yoy) respectively. While food and beverage, commercial trade, farming and fishery performed poorly. Their earnings grew -275%、-129 and -249% yoy. Pre-disclosure rules only require those companies whose earnings grow more than 50% or decline more than 50% to pre-disclose.Hence, the sector earnings growth might not be that good for cyclicals and bad for those saw big earnings decline. 3rd quarter earnings growth rate is expected to slip from the high growth rate in 2nd quarter. And margin pressure is not unusual, making market nervous.
III. SP 500 reached record high
A-share and HK stocks fell.Financials and property sector rallied as supervising agency considered that Evergrande was a separate case and would not cause risk to spread out. The US initial jobless claim last week was better than expectation. SP 500 reached record high. As Tesla earnings came in better than expected tech stocks rallied. A well-known strategist pointed out that over the last 20 years profit margin of SP 500 correlated positively with inflation. Hence, it is no need to worry about high inflation. Yet that the high inflation can be transmitted might be due to abundant liquidity to some extent.
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