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      壹 港股強勁反彈

      港股10月初以來表現(xiàn)強勁。恒生指數(shù)在10月5日觸及階段低點23681.44之后反彈。截止10月20日（下同）累計反彈幅度達到10.7%。國企指數(shù)也在10月5日觸及階段低點8359之后反彈，累計反彈幅度接近11%?？萍贾笖?shù)從10月5日的低點累計反彈14.9%。

      貳 仍熊冠全球

      盡管短期反彈幅度較大，但是年初至今上述三大指數(shù)均是下跌的，恒生指數(shù)、國企指數(shù)和科技指數(shù)分別下跌4%、13.6%和20.6%。今年全球股市表現(xiàn)都較好，下跌的指數(shù)很少。因此，國企指數(shù)和科技指數(shù)應該是熊冠全球。我們在現(xiàn)在可以開始和港股做時間的朋友和港股到底有多慘？中均作為具體分析。

      叁 科技股被低估

      科技股的上漲一方面是中資互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)估值被嚴重低估。騰訊和阿里巴巴2021年市盈率估值分別為25倍和22倍，而美股的FAANG股票中估值最低的臉書為25倍。騰訊和阿里巴巴的業(yè)績增速快于發(fā)達國家的對應公司，其估值也應該高于發(fā)達國家的相似公司。另一方面，國家對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的整頓有接近尾聲的跡象。

      肆 數(shù)字經(jīng)濟戰(zhàn)略

      同時，國家重申數(shù)字經(jīng)濟戰(zhàn)略的重要性，指出要充分發(fā)揮海量數(shù)據(jù)和豐富應用場景優(yōu)勢，促進數(shù)字技術與實體經(jīng)濟深度融合，賦能傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型升級，催生新產(chǎn)業(yè)新業(yè)態(tài)新模式?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)龍頭企業(yè)因其掌握海量數(shù)據(jù)以及應用方面的優(yōu)勢將在數(shù)字經(jīng)濟中發(fā)揮重要作用。摩根士丹利近期重申對阿里巴巴的買入評級，指出阿里巴巴的技術和基礎設施是推動中國經(jīng)濟在商業(yè)和科學領域數(shù)字化的重要力量，預期在合作伙伴生態(tài)系統(tǒng)支持下，垂直應用仍是其未來投資的關鍵領域。阿里云是中國關鍵技術開發(fā)商和數(shù)字化推動者，預期業(yè)務云邊際擴張趨勢強勁。我們也認可互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的競爭優(yōu)勢。但隨著中國經(jīng)濟增速放緩，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的業(yè)績可能也會受到一定的影響。政策底已現(xiàn)，業(yè)績底也將不遠。

      伍 美股再創(chuàng)歷史新高

      A股微跌，港股上漲。人民幣對美元繼續(xù)走強。美股標普500連續(xù)6天上漲，道指創(chuàng)出歷史新高。美股70%的公司已經(jīng)報告了3季報業(yè)績，其中86%超市場預期。

I.HK stocks rebounded 

HK stock market bounced strongly from early October. Hang Seng Index, China Enterprises Index and Tech Index rose 10.6%, 11% and 14.9% from the lowest point on 5th October to October 20th. However, the three indexes still registered negative return year-to-date at -4%, -13.6% and -20.6% respectively. As global indexes performed quite well in general, HK market lagged far behind other stock markets. We have analyzed HK market in “It only takes time for HK market to perform現(xiàn)在可以開始和港股做時間的朋友” and “How worse the situation in HK market was?港股到底有多慘？ ”.  

II. Tech stocks got additional boost

For tech stocks there are signs that supervision measures targeted them would come to an end. Moreover, they have got additional boost from national strategy to develop digital economy. Under this strategy further efforts will be needed in building a high-speed, ubiquitous, intelligent, and comprehensive digital information infrastructure that integrates space and ground, and the cloud and the internet. The leading internet players such as Tencent and Alibaba have competitive advantages as they have collected mass data and built infrastructure than can aid in developing digital economy. 

III. Valuation is at low levels 

Also compared with international peers, big internet companies in China are valued at low levels. Tencent and Alibaba are valued at2021 price-to-earnings ratio of 25x and 22x respectively. Facebook is valued atthe lowest level among FAANG stocks at 2021 price-to-earnings ratio of 25x. Companies in developing countries should enjoy valuation premium due to their higher earnings growth rate. 

IV. Wait for earnings bottome to come out

Morgan Stanley recently rated Alibaba BUY rating. It cited reasons that Alibaba’s cloud business would grow strongly and that Alibaba would invest heavily in vertical application. We believe that policy bottom of the tech companies have come out. Yet with China’s economy slowing down these internet companies’ earnings might slow down as well. The bottom of earnings would come out soon. Then internet stocks could regain power to go up.

V. The US stocks reached record high

A-share fell slightly and HK stocks rose.DOW reached another record high. 86% of American companies that released 3rd quarter results have beat expectation.  

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