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     壹 降準預期落空 

      雖然中國3季度經濟數據低于預期，市場普遍預期的降準并沒有發生。我國10年期國債收益率也再次回到了3%以上的水平，反應市場對寬松政策的預期落空之后的估值修正。有很多分析師對此做出了解讀，有的認為當前的經濟不振的主要原因不是需求側，而是供給側。而降準是對需求側進行刺激，因此不是對癥下藥。有的認為當前流動性并非不充裕，而是實體需求不足，降準不一定能對實體經濟的需求產生較大提振作用。

     貳 推繩子

    我們傾向認為在長期債務周期的后期，經濟進入低增長、資產低回報階段，央行難以將刺激性政策轉化為支出的增加。這個階段如果貨幣發行過多，可能會發生流動性陷阱，同時通脹走高，經濟不得不進入痛苦的通脹性去杠桿。這種現象被稱作“推繩子”。一個典型例子是德國魏瑪共和國在上世紀二十年代所經歷的惡性通貨膨脹。當時每個德國人口袋中可能都裝有幾十億馬克，甚至有段時間一個面包就需要 2000 億馬克，而一周的養老金都買不來一杯咖啡。由于紙幣價值每秒鐘都在變化，商家都不再將售價標示出來。家庭主婦用紙幣生火做飯，兒童用紙幣疊城堡。在魏瑪共和國的通脹性蕭條中，每輪央行印鈔之后，越來越多的貨幣不是進入實體經濟，而是投入到實物資產（如黃金）和外幣。股市短期表現較好，但是在債務危機中總體是下跌的。

     叁 我國經濟增速將會企穩

     魏瑪共和國的通脹性蕭條在中國當然不會發生。我國消費領域通脹水平較低，而生產領域通脹有望見頂回落。四季度中國經濟仍會趨勢性向下。但貨幣政策總體上是中性偏寬松的，財政政策會持續發力。明年1季度基建項目的啟動將會帶動經濟企穩。中長期中國經濟將會回到潛在增速水平，這個水平是3%、4%還是5%取決于中國勞動生產率的提升程度，也就是取決于中國科技發展水平。我們對短期股市不悲觀，對長期股市保持樂觀，相信科技創新將推動A股長牛。

     肆 外資流入A股和港股

     A股和港股上漲。人民幣對美元走強，距6月初的高點一步之遙。受人民幣走強影響，外資流入A股和港股。A股農林牧漁、食品飲料和醫藥生物漲幅居前，港股工業、必需消費和醫療保健行業漲幅居前。兩市周期股和房地產股回落。美股延續上漲態勢，上市公司3季度業績持續超預期。美國10年期國債收益率上漲到1.65%，為五月以來的最高水平。

I. Reserve ratio cut did not happen 

While 3rd quarter GDP growth rate fell in short of expectation in China market reacted to this set of data in a calm way. But many investors are bewildered as to why the reserve ratio cut for banks has not happened yet. Some analysts believed that this was because that economy slowed down in 3rd quarter due to the supply chain disruption. This can’t be solved by cutting reserve ratio. Others thought that given the low demand liquidity injected would not come to the real economy. 

II. Push the string

Our view is that at the later stage of a debt cycle economy slows down and return on investment also comes down. At this time when central bank injects liquidity it would be met with liquidity trap and risks higher inflation. This phenomenon is also called “push the string”. 

III. Weimarer Republik

A case in point is Weimarer Republik inthe 1920s. The nation suffered hyperinflation, in which a piece of bread might cost up to several billion Deutsche Mark. While central banks printed money very fast the money did not get into the real economy rather than go to buy gold or foreign currency. 

IV. China's economy would stabilize in 1Q2022

We do not expect hyperinflation to happen in China,though. The inflation in consumer side would maintain at relatively low levels in the next 6 months. While producer-side inflation has been above expectation it would see turning point soon. Economy might continue to slow down in 4thquarter. But monetary policy would maintain neutral to easing stance and fiscal policy would play a key role in supporting economy. We expect China’s economy to stabilize in 1Q2022 with infrastructure spending coming up and remain optimistic for stock market. For the long-term China’s economy would be determined by productivity improvement. This mainly comes from technology and innovation,which would support a long bull market.  

V. RMB went strong

A-share and HK stocks rose. RMB went strong against the US dollar and was close to the high point last June. International investors poured money into both A-share and HK market. The US stocks continued to rise as companies’ 3rd earnings beat expectation. 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.65%, the highest from last May.  

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