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       壹 股指多上漲

     上證指數年初至上周五10月15日（下同）上漲2.7%，從2月18日的高點下跌2.3%。創業板指年初至今上漲10.6%, 從2月18日高點下跌4%?？苿?0年初至今下跌2.5%，其高點在2021年8月6日達到，從高點至今下跌15%。

       貳 翻倍股

      指數總體上漲，但個股是分化的。年初至今有2012只股票下跌，但大幅下跌的股票并不多，只有47只個股跌幅在50%以上。2099只股票上漲，578只個股漲幅在50%以上。其中432只個股漲幅超過100%。這些翻倍股大多在鋰電池、半導體、新能源和光伏等熱門板塊，反應資金對這些板塊的追捧。除個別股票外，大多市盈率估值都是三位數的水平。少量翻倍股估值不高，有可能會延續漲勢。

      叁 腰斬股

     而下跌50%以上的股票可以分為幾種情況：一是遭受政策沖擊的股票，如教育股；二是債務率較高經營一度陷入危機的房地產股；三是去年的大牛股。這些股票在47只股票中占比接近1/2，占比最高。比如某醬油股，去年上漲63%，今年下跌52%；某手套股，去年上漲9倍多，今年下跌68%；某復合調味料股，去年上漲83%，今年下跌73%。最后一類是今年被ST的股票。如從2月高點算，下跌幅度超過50%的股票一共32只，其中大部分與年初至今下跌50%以上的個股重合。少部分不一樣的股票有的是受到個別房地產企業的影響或自身風險暴露。簡而言之，今年的腰斬股最有可能是去年的翻倍股。一方面高估值意味著對這些股票的期望很高，而難以達到；另一方面有些股票上漲純粹是炒作的結果，注定不會長久。

      肆 中國3季度經濟數據

      3季度中國經濟數據低于預期，一方面受到疫情和限電的干擾，另一方面經濟仍處在下行趨勢中。低于預期的經濟數據并沒有對A股和港股構成較大壓力，A股和港股均探底回升，反應市場對經濟下行預期較充分。但美股道指因中國低于預期的經濟數據而下跌，歐洲股指也普跌。雖然美債10年期收益率上漲到1.6%y以上，但科技股仍大幅上漲。納指和標普連續4天上漲。美股3季度凈利潤預計同比上漲30%。根據上周各大銀行，美國消費者支出能力強勁，支持美國經濟持續復蘇。預測美股調整的摩根斯坦利策略分析師認為市場比預期的韌性強。

I. Stock Indexes rose  

Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.7% year-to-date (October 15th , the same below) and fell 2.3% from its February high. Chinext Index rose 10.6% and fell 4% from February high. STAR 50 Index fell 2.5% year-to-date and fell 15% from its August high.

II. Stocks that rose more than 100%

While indexes rose broadly, individual stocks performed differently. Year-to-date there were 2012 stocks falling and 2099 stocks that rose. 47 stocks fell more than 50% and 578 stocks rose more than 50%. Also 432 stocks rose more than 100%,which were in lithium battery, photovoltaic, and other new energy-related sectors and semi-conductor sectors. Most of these stocks were valued at more than 100x price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting that market expectation for them are high. 

III. Stocks that fell more than 50%

Those stocks falling more than 50% fell into several categories. The first is that was targeted by policies, such as tutoring stocks. The second is property companies that were in big debt and ran into difficulties in operation. The third is those that rose more than 50% last year. This category comprises of the largest group as about half of the 47 stocks fell into this category. The last group is those stocks that were specially treated. 32 stocks fell more than 50% from February high. Most of them were stocks that fell 50% year-to-date. Some stocks were different due to their own risk exposure. 

IV. Risks associated with high-flying stocks

In summary, stocks that rose more than 100% could fall sharply the following year. The reason is that expectation for them is so high that they could not deliver. Also some stocks rise purely due to speculation. In this case their stock rally would be doomed to fade sometime later.    

V. Market summary

China 3rd quarter economic data came in lower than expected.But both A-share and HK stocks bottomed out, reflecting that market has priced in the slower economic growth. But DOW Index in the US and European stocks fell as investors were concerned about China’s economic growth rate. While the 10-year treasury yield rose above 1.6%, tech stocks rallied. SP 500 and Nasdaq rose for 4 days in a row, boosted by the higher-than-expected earnings growth in 3Q.

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