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 壹 上市可能是救命稻草

      近期，不僅有房地產公司因多元化經營導致巨額債務無法償付，還有個別制造業的民營企業也爆出因重大虧損和運營困難，無法償還債務的消息。巧合的是這兩家企業都曾經申請在A股進行下屬公司的IPO和借殼上市，但均未得到批準。也有企業近期撤回A股的上市申請。從其披露信息看，該企業的債務水平也較高。A股的IPO也許是某些企業的救命稻草，但如果允許這些企業進行IPO，很可能會加劇系統性風險。

       貳 高杠桿率加劇危機對經濟的沖擊

       前美聯儲主席艾倫·格林斯潘在《動蕩的世界》中分析了債務的重要性。他指出1987年股市大跌和2000年的互聯網泡沫破滅并沒有對經濟造成較大沖擊，主要就是因為美國實體和金融機構當時的杠桿率較低，而2008年全球金融危機對經濟造成自1929年大蕭條以來的重大沖擊，主要原因就是杠桿率過高。他假設如果2008年的房地產抵押貸款支持證券有低杠桿機構持有，如養老金和共同基金，這些機構也會遭受巨額損失，但是由于債務違約而導致的破產事件將會少很多，這樣對經濟的沖擊程度也會小很多。

       叁 影子銀行幫助提高杠桿率

       我們在危機的啟示中討論了人們對危機的認識通常是不足的。而這個不足主要是因為危機初始時，監管機構和市場參與者很難搞清楚杠桿率的高低。2007年底，雷曼兄弟的杠桿率高達30倍以上，而其他幸運度過危機的投資銀行杠桿率也都不低，比如美林證券的杠桿率接近28倍。這是從公開信息中看出的杠桿率。但正如橋水創始人達利奧所說的影子銀行在加杠桿的過程中發揮了重要作用，這也使得實際的杠桿率遠高于公開信息披露的杠桿率。

      肆 我國杠桿率總體穩定

      我們在去年底發表的信用債無序違約是股市的阿克琉斯之踵嗎？分析了我國的影子銀行，包括委托貸款和信托貸款的同比增速以及存量情況。可以看出我國影子銀行的新增規模增速是下降的，而存量也在緩慢減少。但加杠桿無處不在。如果一些企業通過上市而得以繼續加杠桿行為，那A股IPO豈不成了唐僧肉嗎？這一定不是二級市場投資人希望看到的。

     伍 上證指數上周下跌

    上證指數是全球16個主要國家和地區指數中唯一下跌的。美股上周上漲，好于預期的企業3季度業績暫時壓制了對經濟滯漲的擔憂。美國11月份將會接收國際旅客，市場對經濟復蘇的前景謹慎樂觀

I. High-leveraged companies' IPO were rejected

It was reported that some private company in manufacturing sector was faced with big losses and poor performance of businesses. As a result it was not able to pay big amount of debt. Before that some property company also was trapped in big debt burden. It seems coincidental that both companies ever applied for A-share IPO and was not approved. We also noticed that a well-known company withdrew its IPO application lately, whose debt burden was not low based on its disclosed information. Thanks to the decisions from supervising agencies that did not allow these companies to be listed in A-share. 

II. High leverage poses big risk for economy

Actually, debt plays a key role in economic crises. Alan Greenspan, the ex-Federal Chairman in the US, wrote in his book “Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting” that 1987 stock market crash and 2000 internet bubble burst did not cause economic to crash.The reason is that leverage levels were low during these two periods. Yet 2008 global financial crises caused the US economy to suffer the deepest recession from 1929. The reason is that leverage levels were too high. Lehman Brothers’ net gearing ratio was more than 30x at the end of 2007. Some investment banks that were lucky to get through the crises also had comparable gearing ratio. 

III. Shadow banking increases leverage

Also shadow banking makes things worse as it increases leverage levels in ways that are hard to be found out. We ever analyzed China’s shadow banking last November and concluded that shadow banking in China was in well controlled. Yet gearing ratio can be increased via many methods. If high-leveraged companies get listed in A-share, this means that their high gearing ratio can be maintained for much longer time. If this happens, the risk of investing in A-share also increases.

IV. Shanghai Composite Index fell last week

A-share lagged behind major stock indexes last week.Shanghai Composite Index was the only one to fall last week among 16 global major indexes. The US stocks rose boosted by better-than-expected 3Q2021 earnings. The worry about stagflation subdued for the moment.

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