壹 從眾心理
格林斯潘在《動蕩的世界》一書中分析了在股價上漲和下跌的過程中投資者心理發揮的作用。他指出在美國上世紀的股市上漲過程中，從眾心理發揮了很大作用，但是股價上漲的幅度似乎一次比一次弱。我們認為這也許是因為投資者變得越來越理性。在1929年大蕭條前5年，股市年均漲幅為28%；2000年互聯網泡沫破滅前5年，股市年均漲幅為22%；而2007年前5年股價年均漲幅為12%。
貳 恐懼心理
他同時指出恐懼是比狂熱強烈得多的人類心理傾向，因此，下跌往往比上漲來的劇烈。而克服恐懼是件知易行難的事情。他舉例說許多經驗豐富的投資者都在1987年10月19日創紀錄的股災中拋售了股票。雖然他們知道是錯誤的，但財富蒸發所帶來的痛苦導致他們想通過擺脫股市來尋求安慰。
叁 信用利差
恐懼或者風險可以用信用利差來反應。標準普爾10年期BB+級債券，即垃圾債券收益率與10年期國債收益率的利差在股價與房地產泡沫的高潮期收縮到2%，而在雷曼事件后的2008年金融危機高潮期則達到了近9%。在我國，信用利差也是觀察風險偏好的一個重要指標。通常選用較低級別的利率債與較高評級的信用債利率的差異來確定信用利差。
肆 如何克服恐懼心理
對于散戶而言，恐懼發揮決定性的作用。因為一旦虧完了，散戶就出局了。而只有資金雄厚的投資者才能夠承受周期性的市場沖擊，利用股市大跌建立有效的投資組合。那作為散戶如何能夠面對大幅回撤的股價和凈值損失呢？首先，散戶炒股也要有紀律性。如果回撤到一定程度，要及時止損。其次，對于處在防御性行業的公司，如估值不高，則可以等待危機度過。這些公司一般會持續增長，股價會創出新高。但如估值過高，則等待的時間會很長。如上世紀70年代的美國漂亮50，投資者需要等待10年股價才回到高點。最后，最好的避險辦法是對公司有比較深入的了解，同時在估值較低時介入。這樣，就不用擔心系統性風險。
伍 美股大漲
A股微跌。美國上周初請失業人數好于預期，公司盈利超預期，美股大漲。
I. Herd instinct
The ex-Federal Chairman Alan Greenspan ever wrote in his book “Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting” that psychology plays a key role in asset prices volatility. He pointed out that herd instinct actually determined stock prices going up in the last century. Yet the price increase dwindled in bull markets.In the five years before 1929 stock crash the stock index rose at an annual rate of 28%. But it was 22% and 12% per annum on average respectively five years before 2000 and 2007, which led to internet bubble burst and global financial crises. It seems that investors become more sensible with time passing by.
II. Horror
He also pointed out that horror is a type of psychology that comes with much more power than mania. As a result, stock prices always fall more sharply than the rise. And overcoming horror is much easier said than done. A case in point is stock crash on October 19th,1987 when stock index saw the largest daily decline. Many sophisticated investors sell stocks although they knew that it was wrong. The big pain of seeing fortune loss made them only want to get out of stock markets.
III. Credit spread
Horror or the risk investors are faced with can be measured by credit spread. The credit spread between 10-year junk bond and 10-year treasury yield narrowed to 200 basis point at the peak of stock and property market in 2007 and expanded to 900 basis point after Lehman Brothers went bankruptcy.
IV. How to overcome horror?
Individual investors are manipulated by horror more than institutional investors. As the game would be over if they lose all of their money. For institutional investors who usually have more capital to leverage, they can make their portfolio better when stock market crash. So for individual investors it is important to have disciplines in cutting losses. Moreover, they should know the stocks well, which would also help them to endure the temporary losses. Lastly, it would be wise to buy good companies at low valuation levels. This can help them to tide over any market risks.
V. The US stocks rallied
A-share fell slightly. The US stock rallied on good earnings report and better initial jobless claims last week.
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