周三A股繼續(xù)下跌。A股主要指數(shù)均下跌超過1個百分點。申萬28個行業(yè)跟前一交易日一樣只有三個行業(yè)上漲，分別是綜合、公用事業(yè)和傳媒，跌幅居前的行業(yè)仍然是有色金屬、鋼鐵和化工。國儲局拋售電解鋁儲備傳聞仍然發(fā)酵。港股跌幅超過A股，主要指數(shù)均下跌2個百分點以上，12個綜合行業(yè)全部下跌，其中跌幅居前的是原材料、工業(yè)和可選必需。北上資金凈流入50億人民幣，南下資金凈流出69.4億人民幣。
A股港股連續(xù)大跌。本周A股和港股大跌是對全球經(jīng)濟樂觀預(yù)期的修復(fù)，歐洲疫情再起，部分新興市場國家加息，美國雖疫苗接種超預(yù)期，但疫情仍有再次蔓延的風(fēng)險。我們認(rèn)為全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇是漸進曲折的，但總體復(fù)蘇方向是確定的。A股和港股從春節(jié)后至今已調(diào)整了一個半月，抱團股雖跌幅較大，但估值仍處在高位，需觀察未來盈利增長情況。不過很多其他板塊和個股的估值都處在很有吸引力的區(qū)間，不易對市場過度悲觀。從2020年業(yè)績情況看，很多企業(yè)業(yè)績高速增長，并且2021年前景展望很有吸引力。有投資人擔(dān)憂當(dāng)前國際政治形勢。最新消息是美國國務(wù)卿布林肯號召北約聯(lián)合對抗中國在科技方面的崛起。中美會談后，國際形勢最新進展預(yù)示新冷戰(zhàn)格局似乎在形成。對我國而言，經(jīng)歷了2018年的中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，國內(nèi)很多企業(yè)已經(jīng)具備承受打擊的能力，而且雙循環(huán)的一個目的就是要構(gòu)筑國內(nèi)大市場，降低對外需的依賴程度。此辛丑不是彼辛丑。現(xiàn)在我們不僅有欣賞“清風(fēng)拂山崗，明月照大江”的實力，也有“他自狠來他自惡，我自一口真氣足”的自信。
歐洲3月份經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)超預(yù)期。IHS Markit數(shù)據(jù)顯示，歐元區(qū)今年3月制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）初值意外由前值57.9升至62.4，為1997年6月以來最高值，市場預(yù)期回落至57.6。制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出由前值57.6升至63，創(chuàng)有數(shù)據(jù)以來新高，因全球需求繼續(xù)由疫情大流行中恢復(fù)。新訂單增速加快，歐元區(qū)制造商創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會為2018年8月以來最高，主要受惠法國及德國推動。歐元區(qū)3月服務(wù)業(yè)PMI初值由前值45.7升至48.8，創(chuàng)七個月新高，市場預(yù)期46。其中服務(wù)商投入成本增速為去年2月以來最高。歐元區(qū)3月綜合產(chǎn)出指數(shù)初值意外半年來首呈擴張，由前值48.8升至52.5，創(chuàng)八個月高，市場原預(yù)期升至49.1，主要受惠制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出增速加快推動。商品和服務(wù)平均價格上漲至2019年1月以來最高水平，商品價格創(chuàng)近十年最大漲幅。
美股下跌。科技股大跌，納指下跌2個百分點，道指微跌。
A-share fell for the second day on slightly increased volume. Only 3 sectors out of the 28 rose, which were conglomerate, utilities and media. All of the 12 sectors in HK market fell with raw material, industrial and discretionary consumption falling the most. The market rumor that State Supplies Bureau was to release 50-ton electrolytic aluminum still pressured upstream stocks. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 5 billion. And south-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$6.94 billion.
Why A-share and HK stocks continued falling? The market corrected its previous optimistic outlook of the world economy as the pandemic surged in Europe, several emerging markets raised interest rate and the US pandemic seemed to spread again despite faster vaccination rollout. While most of the group-holding stocks’ valuation is still at hefty levels and need robust earnings growth to support the high valuation, many other sectors and stocks have strong earnings growth with reasonable valuation. Many companies who released strong 2020 earnings also provided promising growth prospect in 2021. Hence, it is unnecessary to keep pessimistic about the stock market overall. Some investors worry about geopolitics. We believe that China’s economy has decreased its reliance on export to a great extent. Moreover, dual-circulation aims to develop domestic market to deal with threats from the outside. China is no longer that nation 120 years ago. We have come a long way to stand up and to benefit from our own strength and confidence.
The European leading indicator was better than expectation. European manufacturing Purchase Manager Index (PMI)in March 2009 rose from 57.9 in Feb. to 62.4, the highest reading since June 1997 as global economy emerged from the pandemic. Service PMI rose from 45.7 in Feb.to 48.8 in March, the highest reading in 7 months. The European stocks rose while the US stocks fell as tech stocks tumbled.
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