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      壹 滯漲到衰退

      我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在從滯漲階段走向衰退階段。根據(jù)喬治·達(dá)格尼諾在《駕馭周期》一書中的總結(jié)，滯漲和衰退分別是經(jīng)濟(jì)的第三和第四階段；而第一和第二階段分別是復(fù)蘇和繁榮階段。滯漲階段的特點(diǎn)包括：貨幣供給增速持續(xù)下降；貨幣走勢(shì)疲軟；股票市場(chǎng)萎靡不振；經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩，最終位于長(zhǎng)期潛在增長(zhǎng)率之下；企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)見(jiàn)頂；大宗商品價(jià)格見(jiàn)頂；短期和長(zhǎng)期利率見(jiàn)頂；通脹持續(xù)上漲后開始下降。而到了衰退階段，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速已經(jīng)低于長(zhǎng)期潛在增速，并且伴隨著緊縮的貨幣政策和持續(xù)減少的貨幣供給，以及企業(yè)不斷地削減成本，經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)疲軟。但是，由于成本下降，企業(yè)的邊際利潤(rùn)率開始好轉(zhuǎn)。衰退期的特征包括：貨幣供給增速持續(xù)下降，但只要短期利率見(jiàn)頂，貨幣供給就會(huì)增加；貨幣先抑后揚(yáng)；股票市場(chǎng)雖然低迷，但是會(huì)逐漸向好；經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)下行。

      貳 衰退期債券和股票投資都有機(jī)會(huì)

      根據(jù)喬治，滯漲期不適合投資金融工具，而適合投資硬資產(chǎn)，包括能源和黃金類股票、大宗商品、房地產(chǎn)和藝術(shù)品等。而衰退期非常重要，因?yàn)橹八邢碌闹笜?biāo)在這個(gè)階段都會(huì)反轉(zhuǎn)，包括通脹見(jiàn)頂回落、短期利率和債券收益率持續(xù)下行，此時(shí)債券的投資機(jī)會(huì)開始顯現(xiàn)。而低通貨膨脹率和低債券收益率使得股票具有投資價(jià)值。最終，當(dāng)央行開始釋放流動(dòng)性之后，股票市場(chǎng)迎來(lái)進(jìn)一步的上揚(yáng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)周期也進(jìn)入第一階段—復(fù)蘇期。

      叁 等待隧道盡頭的光

      我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在今年3月份達(dá)到頂點(diǎn)之后，開始下行，經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入第三階段—滯漲期。近幾個(gè)月，利率水平持續(xù)走低，預(yù)期經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入衰退期，而剛剛公布的九月份的貨幣供應(yīng)量數(shù)據(jù)看，社融存量增速仍在下行，但是廣義貨幣的增速已經(jīng)觸底回升，疊加近期政策表態(tài)，預(yù)示經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能進(jìn)入了第四階段。投資者在這一階段無(wú)需悲觀，要為即將到來(lái)的股市上漲做好準(zhǔn)備。在隧道盡頭的光，一定是政策寬松的信號(hào)發(fā)出的。

      肆 市場(chǎng)綜述

      A股探底回升。美國(guó)9月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比漲幅均超預(yù)期，但美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率回落，科技股上漲。

I. From stagflation to depression  

China’s economy is shifting from stagflation to depression. According to George Dagnino, there are four stages in economy. They are recovery, prosperity, stagflation and depression. The characteristics in stagflation stage include that money supply slows down, a weak currency, economy slows down and would go below potential growth rate, profit growth rate slows down, interest rate goes down and commodity prices reach peak levels. And when it comes to depression stage, the economy slows down further and remains at a low level due to that enterprises cut costs and monetary policies remain stringent. But with the cost coming down the marginal profitability of enterprise would turn positive. In summary the characteristics of depression stage include that economy is continuously weak and money supply still remains at low levels. But once interest rate comes down money supply would go up. Stock market performs poorly in depression stage. But when money supply comes up, it would perform well. 

      II. Bond and stocks would perform in depression stage 

According to George, in stagflation stage one should not invest in any financial products. Rather he or she should invest in hard assets such as commodity, gold, property and arts,etc. Depression stage is very important as all of the leading indicators would reverse. The interest rate would peak out as well as inflation. Bond is a good investment in depression. And with the falling interest rate and bond yields stocks also offer investment value. Eventually central banks would inject liquidity into the financial markets. Stock markets would go up further. 

      III. The light at the end of the tunnel 

In the case of China’s economy it peaked in March this year and entered stagflation period. Recently, we noticed that interest rate came down. Meanwhile broad money supply (M2) in September also bottomed out. The most important signal is when PBOC would cut reserve ratio for commercial banks. This would mean that economy would enter the first stage and stock markets would rise. So remain patient for the stocks.

      IV. Market summary

A-share bottomed out.The US September CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, higher than expected. But treasury yield fell and tech stocks rallied. 

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