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      壹 上世紀的“蔡經理”

      無論是約翰·聶夫還是彼得·林奇，在他們各自的書中都無一例外的提到一個蔡經理。蔡經理全名叫做杰拉德·蔡（Gerald Tsai），是上世紀50-60年代富達基金著名的基金經理，當時是家喻戶曉的一個名人。聶夫是與其同時代的基金經理。當彼得·林奇在70年代中期加入富達基金的時候，他的母親就是因為蔡經理而聽說過富達基金，可見蔡經理在美國投資者的影響力。

      貳 蔡經理鐘愛題材股

      在其《約翰·聶夫論投資》一書中，聶夫寫道：蔡經理買進的都是題材股，這些題材股通常是小公司。在聶夫看來，很多小公司只是因為投資人看好未來的盈利前景而導致股價上漲，是“博傻投資理論”發揮號令。聶夫因此稱蔡管理的基金是“腎上腺素”支配的基金。1965-1967年三年的時間里，蔡管理的基金年復合收益率50%，這是令人瞠目結舌的業績。而聶夫堅持不參與題材股的炒作，其所管理的基金與蔡管理的狂飆基金的收益差距很大，因而被人批評為食古不化的老頑固和對市場不敏感。

      叁 熊市業績不佳

      1968年美國股市結束了10年牛市，開始走入低迷。蔡經理的基金業績也隨即低迷。而聶夫因為做了正確的事，在1968年和1969年都業績表現出色。蔡從富達基金出來自立門戶后，所管理的曼哈頓基金在1968-1969年遭遇熊市，表現不佳，凈值最多下跌了55%，基金管理規模也從7億美金下降到5400萬美元。而聶夫管理溫莎基金長達31年，年復合收益率為13.7%。

      肆 人人都愛蔡經理

      為什么追求題材股的基金經理會對大眾產生這么大的影響力呢？因為賺快錢更能喚起大眾的情緒，而如聶夫一樣堅守風險收益比的基金讓投資人覺得乏味。雖然長期看，聶夫的基金存活的時間要比蔡經理的長很多，但是這不妨礙人們去追逐蔡經理為他們在短期內賺塊錢。通過投資賺錢很容易嗎？芒格曾經說過：投資從來不是一件容易的事。

      伍 主要市場均下跌

      A股和港股大幅下跌，美股小幅下跌。美國9月份消費者價格指數周三公布，同時摩根大通和達爾塔航空公布3季報。

I. Tsai in the 1960s 

Both John Neff and Peter Lynch mentioned a famous fund manager called Tsai, whose full name is Gerald Tsai. Tsai was a fund manager with Fidelity in the 1950-60s and was a household name at that time. Actually when Peter Lynch began his career in Fidelity in the mid-1970s, his mother knew Fidelity because Tsai ever worked in this firm. 

II. Tsai loved small companies 

Tsai mainly bought small companies with promising prospects, i.e. theme stocks. But these stocks might have this or that kind of problems that would not guarantee a long-term earnings growth potential. Neff hence called his funds controlled by adrenaline. From 1965 to 1967 Tsai achieved 50% return for each of these three years, which was really impressive and outstanding. Neff did not chase those small stocks and his fund’s performance was far lagged behind that of Tsai. He was therefore criticized as being stubborn and having no nerve for the market. 

III. Tsai did not perform well in bear market

Yet from 1968 the US concluded 10-year bull market goal and turned into bear market. Tsai left Fidelity and set up his own fund called Manhattan Fund. The fund suffered 55% loss at the worst time and the AUM shrank from initial US$ 700 million to 54 million. Neff’s fund performed well during the bear market. He managed his fund called Windsor Fund for 31 years and achieved annual compound return of 13.7%. 

IV. Reasons that everybody loves Tsai 

So why investors only remember Tsai rather than Neff? The reason is that everyone likes those who can make money in a fast way rather than those who make money in a steady way. Even if everyone knows that fund managers such as Neff can make money for them for a longer period of time, they can’t help chasing those fund managers like Tsai with the expectation that these fund managers can make big money in a short period of time. Well, Munger ever said: investment is never easy.

V. Market sentiment is low worldwide  

Both A-share and HK stocks fell sharply while the US stocks fell slightly.The US September CPI is to be released on Wednesday. Also JP Morgan and Delta Airline will report 3rd quarter earnings on Wednesday.

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