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      壹 2008年金融危機肇始于次貸危機

      2008年美國的房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)生次貸危機繼而傳導(dǎo)到全球，引發(fā)全球金融危機。根據(jù)橋水公司的創(chuàng)始人達利奧的分析，美國房地產(chǎn)市場在2005年就呈現(xiàn)出泡沫的特征。具體表現(xiàn)為：資產(chǎn)價格偏高；市場預(yù)期目前的高價會繼續(xù)快速上行；普遍存在看漲情緒；利用高杠桿融資買入資產(chǎn)；賣家提前很長時間買入，旨在投機或應(yīng)對未來價格上漲的影響；新買家進入市場；貨幣寬松政策進一步助長泡沫，而收緊貨幣政策會刺破泡沫。達利歐還指出影子銀行也是泡沫時期的一個共同特征。在美國的房地產(chǎn)次貸危機中，影子銀行也發(fā)揮了作用。影子銀行使各方都受益，因為監(jiān)管缺位降低了貸款成本，降低了借款利率和還款難度，投資者的回報也能增加。但影子銀行通常會導(dǎo)致危機。

      貳 人們對危機認識不足

      2007年次貸危機剛剛發(fā)生時并沒有被認為是很嚴(yán)重的危機。時任美聯(lián)儲主席伯南克在2007年3月28日的國會聽證會上表示：次貸市場問題對整個經(jīng)濟和金融市場的影響似乎可以得到控制。2007年10月，美國道瓊斯指數(shù)創(chuàng)出了歷史新高14198點，隨后就因為美國銀行業(yè)績受到次貸壞賬計提的減值影響而股市大跌。誰也不曾料到，一年之后，股市下跌了50%以上。達利奧也坦言盡管他們進行了深入調(diào)研，考察了各類市場（特別是衍生品市場）參與者的持倉情況。但他們得出的結(jié)論是沒有人能夠掌握持倉的全部情況。很多風(fēng)險都是未知的應(yīng)該是2008年次貸危機最終演進成全球金融危機的一個深層次原因。

      叁 危機無法預(yù)防

      從達利奧的描述中，我們可以看到身處危機之中其實很難推斷危機的進程和危機影響的幅度，無論是普通的市場參與者還是美聯(lián)儲的高官，亦或是達利奧這樣的有先見知名的投資人。20世紀(jì)以來，危機總是隔一段時間來過一次。但人們除了應(yīng)對，似乎沒有任何能夠避免危機發(fā)生的辦法。所有危機背后都有人們急于逐利的心理，怕失去發(fā)財機會的恐懼以及全然不考慮風(fēng)險的盲目樂觀的情緒。如果真有能夠避免危機發(fā)生的方法，那就是遏制人性的貪婪。這顯然是無法做到的。

      肆 油價上漲壓抑股市

      A股下跌，港股上漲。油價上漲令市場擔(dān)憂經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇受阻，美股下跌。

I. 2008 Global Financial Crises  

Ray Dalio, the founder of the famous hedge fund Bridgewater, analyzed 2008 global financial crises in his popular book “A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises”. The crises were originated from property bubbles, which actually began from 2005. According to Dalio the US property market had typical bubble characteristics,which included high-rocket high asset prices, market expectation that high prices could still go higher, bullish sentiment, high leverage, new entrants to the market, and easing monetary policy that would boost bubbles while stringent monetary policy would burst bubbles. Moreover, shadow banking also played a role in the subprime crises. Due to lacking supervision measures, shadow banking provided lower cost loans to borrowers and those invested in shadow banking could get higher return. But shadow banking can lead to crises.  

II. Few people can fully understand the crises

Few people knew that subprime crises could lead to global financial crises. On March 28th,2007 when the Fed chairman Bernanke made testimony before the Congress he said that the negative impact that subprime issues had on the overall economy and financial markets were well under control. Dalio had tried to collect data on risk exposures of market participants but in vain. He concluded that nobody could have the whole picture of the risk exposure. In October 2007 DOW reached the highest point in history at 14810 and then saw itself to be nearly halved in one year. 

III. Lessons that can not be learned

In summary nobody, whether he is the highest-ranked official or common investor, can predict how far and how deep a crisis could go. While we experienced one crisis after another since the beginning of last century, we might have learned how to deal with it rather than how to prevent it from happening.Behind every crisis are those factors including the eagerness to be on board,the horror that might miss a fortune and the blind optimism. If there is a way to prevent crises, it should make people not become greedy. But there is really no way to accomplish that goal.

IV. High oil prices dented stock markets 

A-share fell while HK stocks rallied. The US stocks fell due to the rising oil prices. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。