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      壹 A股三季報(bào)

      首先是中美三季報(bào)的情況。7-9月份，政策頻出。有一些行業(yè)和板塊因?yàn)橥话l(fā)政策而造成較大沖擊，因此，三季報(bào)應(yīng)該不會(huì)有較好的表現(xiàn)。但市場(chǎng)總是“幾家歡樂(lè)幾家愁”，也有一些行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)較快，上市公司業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊贂?huì)保持較快增長(zhǎng)。不過(guò)，也要考慮因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)已經(jīng)計(jì)入了較高業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊伲虼耍緢?bào)出來(lái)反而成為利好出盡股價(jià)下跌的觸發(fā)點(diǎn)。我們看到個(gè)別新能源上市公司上周就遭遇了這種“利好出盡”的沖擊。另外，9月中下旬開(kāi)始的限電舉措對(duì)部分上市公司的業(yè)績(jī)也會(huì)有影響。

      貳 三季報(bào)盈利增速預(yù)計(jì)下行

      今年一季度A股上市公司歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增幅為58.70%，二季度回落至41.75%；一季度和二季度凈利潤(rùn)環(huán)比增幅分別為59.28%和9.66%。二季度的盈利增長(zhǎng)主要是周期和成長(zhǎng)板塊貢獻(xiàn)的。預(yù)計(jì)三季度利潤(rùn)同比和環(huán)比增速都將回落。

      叁 美股三季報(bào)

      根據(jù)FactSet的數(shù)據(jù)，二季度S&P500公司的利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)89.3%，是2009年Q4以來(lái)的最大增速。其中87%的公司盈利超預(yù)期，創(chuàng)2008年以來(lái)新高。美股三季度盈利將從二季度創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平下滑7.4%，成為歷史上盈利第二好的季度；預(yù)計(jì)2021年全年的美股盈利將較2020年增長(zhǎng)62.0%，達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平。本周開(kāi)始，美股市場(chǎng)將迎來(lái)三季報(bào)發(fā)布的密集期，達(dá)美航空、摩根大通、貝萊德、美國(guó)銀行、花旗集團(tuán)、摩根士丹利等82家美股上市公司將發(fā)布三季報(bào)。

       肆 政策

      對(duì)政策而言，中美方向正好相反。中國(guó)市場(chǎng)投資人期待的是央行10月份或至少四季度能夠降準(zhǔn)降息；而美國(guó)則會(huì)收緊流動(dòng)性，最晚在11月份宣布縮減債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模，12月份開(kāi)始實(shí)行。中美金融周期逆向而行，對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響如何有待觀察。近期，各種漲價(jià)也是市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。我們一直認(rèn)為通脹是可持續(xù)的，具體可參見(jiàn)你在哪個(gè)陣營(yíng)？、通脹漲幅回落可能是暫時(shí)的及這可能是一個(gè)不一樣的超級(jí)周期。但由于中國(guó)豬肉價(jià)格仍處在低位，總體消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)的上漲還不明顯。而美國(guó)的消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域通脹有可能會(huì)維持在較高水平。

      伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

     上周五A股和港股均上漲。美國(guó)9月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期，但應(yīng)不會(huì)影響縮減債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模進(jìn)程。

I.  The 3rd quarter results of A-share 

The first major focus of the market would be the upcoming 3rd quarter results of both A-share and the US listed companies. As policies targeted some sectors were brought up in July, these sectors might not deliver good results.In contrast some sectors enjoy fast growth companies in these sectors are expected to deliver strong earnings growth in 3rd quarter. Yet,there is also the risk that market would sell on good news and these companies might see their stock prices correct sharply after earnings release. It did happen to some companies last week. In 1Q2021 and 2Q2021 A-share earnings grew at 58.7% and 41.75% year-on-year respectively and 59.28% and 9.66% quarter-on-quarter. The 3rd quarter earnings might come down both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 

II. The 3rd quarter results of the US companies

The US companies would release 3rd quarter results starting this week. According to FactSet, the 2nd quarter earnings of the US listed companies grew 89.3% year-on-year, the best quarter from 4Q2009. 87% of the listed companies beat market expectation. The 3rd quarter earnings are expected to slow 7.4% quarter-on-quarter from 2rd quarter record levels. The earnings of the US listed companies are expected to grow 62% in 2021, which is unprecedentedly high in history. 82 companies would release results this week in the US including JP Morgan and Delta Airline, etc. 

III. Monetary policies 

The monetary policies of China and the US are different. Market expects that PBOC would cut reserve ratio for banks in October or 4th quarter. But Fed is expected to announce taper in November and execute taper in Dec. What A-share and the US stock market would perform as Sino-US monetary policies are divergent is still uncertain. Also another focus is on the price increases of upstream raw materials. We discussed this in “Which side do you take你在哪個(gè)陣營(yíng)？?”.Inflation is to be here for some time. For China CPI might still at relatively low levels due to that swine prices are low. The US CPI might be maintained at high levels.

IV. Taper is to come soon

The non-farm payroll data in September of the US came in lower than expected. Yet this would not delay taper, which is expected to be announced in November and executed in December. 

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