壹 A股大跌
A股周三受到歐美股市調整影響大幅下跌,申萬28個行業(yè)中只有農林牧漁、銀行和家用電器板塊上漲,其余25個行業(yè)下跌。其中采掘、鋼鐵、國防軍工、有色金屬、化工等前期熱門板塊跌幅較大。市場大跌會導致投資者情緒不高,很多投資者“芯鋰苦”。恭喜你,在這一點上你與股神是相同的。
貳 股神遭遇股市大跌
彼得·林奇,曾經執(zhí)掌富達麥哲倫基金長達13年并且年復合收益率超過20%的股神,曾經在書中描寫過股市大跌時他的心情。1987年10月19日美國股市大跌時,他正在英國度假。股市大跌導致麥哲倫基金當天下跌18%。麥哲倫基金當時的規(guī)模為100億美金,一天就損失了接近20億美金,相當于一個海上島國一年的GDP。彼得·林奇寫道:心如刀割的他根本分不清吃的是鱈魚還是大蝦。股市大跌導致他不僅食不甘味,而且無心游玩,最后提前結束度假返回辦公室。
叁 反思
幾年后他的反思是即使10月19日的行情讓你對股市的走勢感到驚恐不安,你也不必在這一天甚至在第二天把股票拋出,你可以逐步減持你的股票投資組合,從而最終能夠獲得比那些由于恐慌將股票全部拋出的投資人更高的投資回報。因為從11月份開始股市就穩(wěn)步上揚,到1988年6月,市場已經反彈了400多點,也就是說漲幅超過了23%。
肆 投資優(yōu)秀的公司
從這次大跌的經歷中,彼得·林奇總結出3點經驗或教訓:①不要讓煩心之事毀掉一個很好的投資組合;②不要讓煩心之事毀掉一次愉快的度假;③當你的投資組合中現(xiàn)金比重很小時千萬不要出國旅游。他指出投資最重要的是如何尋找到優(yōu)秀的公司。不管某一天股市下跌508點還是108點,最終優(yōu)秀的公司將會勝利,而普通公司將會失敗,投資于這兩類完全不同的公司的投資者也將會相應得到完全不同的回報。股市大跌其實是好事,讓投資人有機會以打折的價格購買優(yōu)秀的公司。
伍 港股韌性較好
港股在金融地產帶領下上漲,而原材料和能源板塊大跌。港股國企指數(shù)年初至今下跌18%,恒生指數(shù)下跌8%,二者均為主要市場中表現(xiàn)最差的指數(shù)。但另一方面對外部沖擊的韌性也相對較強。美股道指上漲,而科技股繼續(xù)下跌。美國債收益率有所回落。美國眾議院通過了債務上限法案,但因共和黨明確表示不支持債務上限,因此,該法案將無法通過參議院。
I. A-share fell sharply on Wednesday
A-share fell sharply on Wednesday. Apart from bank, farming and fishery and home appliance that rose, the remaining 25 sectors fell.Energy, mining, iron and steel, and petrochemical sectors fell the most. Investors felt the pain from losing money. Well, your feeling is the same with the legendary investor Peter Lynch.
II. The legendary investor in 1987 market crash
Peter Lynch ran Megellan Fund in Fidelity for 13 years and achieved an compound annual return above 20%. He wrote in one of his books about what he experienced when the stock market crashed on Oct. 19th 1987. The Megellan Fund’s AUM was US$ 10 billion and lost 18% on that day due to the market crash. Peter was on vacation in the UK. The big fall of the stock market made him have no appetite for food and torn his heart. He concluded his vacation earlier and went back to the office.
III. Reflections
Several years later he reflected that one should not sell stocks on the panic day or the day after. He or she should cut exposure gradually and would get much better prices than on the panic day. In fact the stock market began to rise in November and went up 23% by June 1988.
IV. Lessons learned
He then shared three lessons from this. The first is to maintain your portfolio as it is despite the market crash. The second is to enjoy overseas trip. The third is not to travel overseas when one’s portfolio only has a small percentage of cash. In the end he pointed out that investment is to look for excellent companies. As long as you invest in an excellent company you will get good returns, no matter how much market could drop. The market crash offers big discount to excellent companies. So treasure every market crash.
V. HK market was resilient
HK markets rose. Financial and property sectors rose the most while energy and raw material sector fell the most. Both Hang Seng Index and China Enterprises Index returned negatively year-to-date. This in fact provides buffer when facing the external shocks. The US stocks were mixed with defensive stocks rising and tech stocks continuing slide. 10-year treasury yield took a pause. The House of Congress passed raising debt ceiling act. Yet as the Republicans would not support raising debt ceiling the act would be doomed in Senate.
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