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       壹 限電將會導致中國經濟增速下降

       中國的限電將會導致3、4季度經濟增速明顯回落。摩根士丹利發表報告表示，若中國持續因限電帶來限產，將令第四季GDP增長減少1個百分點，中央或需要作政策微調和更有系統地減排。該行預計，減排將令9至12月的粗鋼產量按年減少9%，同時令7%的鋁產能停頓，全國29%的水泥生產受到影響，預計紙和玻璃將會是接下來兩個生產受到影響的行業。對基建項目的阻礙，將削弱第四季的逆周期寬松措施的效用。

       貳 為了碳減排

       在9月至少有5個省實施限電，令生產突然停頓，主要原因是中國減少碳排放的倡議，不過適逢疫情后出口帶動工業擴張，大部分省份達成減排目標的進度落后，因而采用運動式減碳，以達到減排目標。該行說，對煤開采限制及水力發電不足，也導致供電不足。國內的一些研究機構也預計中國3季度經濟增速有可能回落到5%以下，而4季度由于面臨去年的高基數很可能會回落到4%左右。

       叁 美國債務上限

      與此同時，美國的經濟也面臨下行風險。美國經濟增速在3季度可能到達環比高點之后將會下行。但是，兩黨在債務上限問題上如果無法順利達成協議，則美國政府有可能會面臨關門的風險。2013年，美國政府因債務上限問題導致關門造成80萬政府雇員臨時失業。這對美國經濟也將會產生負面影響。美國財政部長耶倫周二警告議員們必需在10月18日前提高債務上限，否則美國將會面臨危機。

       肆 美債利率上漲

       A股和港股上漲。A股周期股基本企穩，而消費板塊在周一大漲后回調。港股科技股漲勢如虹，有媒體報道海外機構過去三個月都在抄底科技股。美國10年期國債收益率上漲到1.567%，達到7月以來的新高。美元指數也上漲到去年11月以來的高點。受美債收益率上行影響，美股全線下跌，科技股領跌。從2013年的縮減債券購買看，國債收益率通常在美聯儲明示要進行債券購買計劃后會上漲，通常漲到開始實施的時候。據此，國債收益率有可能會持續上漲到今年年底。高估值的股票恐面臨估值回調的壓力。

      伍 幅度可能有限

     但國債收益率上漲幅度可能是有限的。我們在《美聯儲能退出寬松貨幣政策嗎？》中曾經分析過，因美國巨額債務負擔，國債收益率上行最大不會超過2%。另外，美股調整對A股和港股的沖擊也應該是可控的，原因就是A股估值不高，港股的估值在歷史的低位。年初至今A股和港股都沒有跟隨美股大幅上漲，港股反而是大幅回落。具體可參見美股如調整對A股影響有多大？

I. China's economy might slow down more than expected in 2H2021 

China’s economic growth might face some head wind in 3Q and 4Q this year due to power shortage. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a recent report that production cut due to power shortage could cost 1 percentage point of GDP growth rate in 4Q this year. It is necessary for governments to adjust policies or cut carbon emission in a more systematic way. 

II. Due to carbon emission

Morgan Stanley estimated that from September to December due to the efforts to cut carbon emission raw steel production volume would fall 9% year-on-year. 7% aluminum production capacity would become idle and 29% of cement production capacity would be affected negatively. Paper and glass production would be affected very soon. Morgan Stanley believed that the infrastructure investment, which is taken as an anti-cycle tool when economy is going down, would not go smoothly due to the shortage of raw materials and power. In September there were at least five provinces that limited power supply. The reason is that China has implemented energy consumption quota. Yet due to the booming export demand some provinces have been lagging far behind the required energy consumption quota. With the year-end in sight they had to cut power supply to satisfy the requirement. Some analysts in China also pointed out that China’s economic growth in 3Q might fall below 5% and 4Q might be around 4%. 

III. Debt ceiling 

At the same time the US economy would reach its peak levels in 3Q this year and slow down from 4Q. Moreover, the debt ceiling might force governments to shut down temporarily. In 2013, debt ceiling caused the governments to close down and 800,000 employees were unemployed for morethan 2 weeks. This would have a negative impact on the US economy.

IV. Treasury yield shot up

Both A share and HK market rose.A-share cyclical stocks stopped falling while liquor stocks corrected after the rally on Monday. HK tech stocks rallied. The US stocks fell sharply as 10-year treasury yield went up to 1.53%. Tech stocks fell the most. The US dollar index rose above 93, the first time from November last year. 

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