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        壹 消費的增長來自收入驅(qū)動

       消費增長是由個人收入水平增速所決定的。截止2020年6月份我國城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的累計同比增速為11.4%，與截止2020年6月份累計同比增速1.5%相加，可得2020和2021兩年累計收入同比增速的平均值為6.45%。這個增速是2003年有統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)以來的最低值。

        貳 疫情沖擊

        這其中一個因素是疫情的影響。疫情對居民收入增速造成較大影響主要表現(xiàn)在其對第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的沖擊。根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局，2020年我國有3.58億人從事第三產(chǎn)業(yè)。任何一個行業(yè)中，80%都是中小企業(yè)，20%是大企業(yè)。據(jù)此可得約2.86億人在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中的中小企業(yè)工作，占我國總就業(yè)人口7.5億人的1/3強，分布在餐飲、住宿、旅游、娛樂等行業(yè)。疫情沖擊下，很多中小餐館、住宿旅游及其他服務(wù)性行業(yè)的從業(yè)人員都不得不因為疫情而面臨較長時間的暫時性失業(yè)，導(dǎo)致收入水平下降。

       叁 高收入人群不受疫情影響

       跟發(fā)達國家一樣，疫情下中國經(jīng)濟也存在明顯的K型復(fù)蘇現(xiàn)象：即高收入人群的收入基本沒有受到疫情的影響，反而因為資產(chǎn)價格收益如股市投資等而使收入水平持續(xù)提高，一個表現(xiàn)是在奢侈品市場。2020年，受疫情影響，全球奢侈品市場萎縮了23%，但中國奢侈品消費卻比2019年上漲了48%，占全球奢侈品消費的1/3。

        肆 大眾消費和奢侈品消費未來走向

       未來，我國經(jīng)濟潛在增速將會逐步下行，預(yù)計到5%以下的水平。經(jīng)濟下行的過程中，低收入人群仍然是受沖擊最大的。如何使低收入人群的收入水平保持一定的增速而不被落下，是近期政策的一個焦點。我們認為這些政策將會有助于消費的恢復(fù)，尤其是大眾消費。而中國的奢侈品消費可參照日本的經(jīng)驗。日本奢侈品消費在1995年達到頂峰，人均消費達到1996美元，占全球奢侈品消費的68%。隨后，日本消費開始趨于理性化和去品牌化。2018年，日本占全球奢侈品消費的10%。我國2021年取代日本成為全球最大的奢侈品消費市場。2021年以來，A股和港股市場的消費板塊都有較大幅度的調(diào)整，而近期有走強的跡象。這種走強能否持續(xù)還是看居民的消費水平能否支撐。

       伍 市場綜述

       A股下跌，港股上漲。A股周期股全線下跌，而消費板塊上漲。港股科技股跌幅較大。美股漲跌互現(xiàn)，道指上漲而科技股下跌，因美國10年期國債收益率持續(xù)上漲。

I. Consumption growth is driven by disposable income

Urban disposable income per capita growth rate in China grew 11.4% year-on-year by June 2021. In 2020, urban disposable income per capita grew 1.5% year-on-year. Combining the growth rate of 2020 and 2021 urban disposable income per capita grew 6.45% on average for these two years. This is the lowest from 2003 when the data was released for the first time.

II. The pandemic hit the lower-income population hard

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit hard on some groups of people,especially for those in the third industry. There was a population of 358million people working in the third industry. For any sector 80% are small and medium-sized enterprises. Based on this, there were a total of 286 people working in the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). They work in leisure and service, catering, travelling, etc sectors. SMEs in these sectors were hit hard by the pandemic as the latter caused them to stop businesses from time to time. 

III. Higher-income population is not affected by the pandemic

Yet for those high-income population they are not affected by the pandemic at all. Moreover, due to their investment in stock markets or other assets their income actually increased during the pandemic. This is reflected in the luxury consumption. In 2020 luxury consumption fell 23% globally while it rose 48% in China. China took one-third market share of global luxury consumption. Going forward China’s economic growth rate would come down to around 4-5%. During this process the growth rate of personal disposable income would come down as well. 

IV. The trend of luxury and mass consumption in the future 

How to maintain the growth rate of those lower-income population has become the policy focus. This would benefit mass consumption products. Luxury consumption reached peak levels in 1995 in Japan when it took 68% market share worldwide. After that consumers became more rational and consumed no-brand goods. What happened in Japan might give some clues about luxury consumption trend in China in the future.

V. Market summary

A share fell sharply while HK stocks rose slightly.Consumption stocks rose while cyclical stocks fell across the board. The US markets were mixed with 10-year treasury yield rising.

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