壹 中國經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)
A股在10月1日至10月7日休市，10月8日星期五開市。港股10月1日休市，10月4日開市。在此期間，有一系列中外數(shù)據(jù)和事件有可能影響市場走勢。首先，中國官方制造業(yè)和非制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)將會在9月30日發(fā)布。經(jīng)濟處在下行通道疊加疫情以及限電的影響，采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)可能不會有較好的表現(xiàn)。9月30日A股收市之后，歐美股市開盤會對該數(shù)據(jù)做出反應(yīng)。
貳 美國就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)
其次，美國9月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)將會在10月1日美股開盤前公布。如數(shù)據(jù)符合預(yù)期，則11月美聯(lián)儲宣布縮減債券購買將會順利成章。美國這波疫情的新增病例已經(jīng)開始向下走，有利于就業(yè)恢復(fù)。因此，9月份的非農(nóng)數(shù)據(jù)很可能會符合預(yù)期甚至略超預(yù)期。
叁 債務(wù)上限的討論
再次，美國債務(wù)上限的討論也可能對市場造成影響。市場很清楚這是美國兩黨爭奪利益的一個焦點。所以，面對暫時無法通過債務(wù)上限導(dǎo)致政府關(guān)門的情況，市場反應(yīng)也比較溫和。比如2013年因債務(wù)上限兩黨爭論導(dǎo)致政府停擺，從10月1日持續(xù)到10月16日。由于美國政府必需在10月17日之前提高債務(wù)上限，否則就構(gòu)成違約，兩黨在10月16日晚間達成協(xié)議，10月17日凌晨由時任總統(tǒng)奧巴馬簽字生效。道瓊斯指數(shù)在10月1日下跌持續(xù)到10月9日，最大跌幅為2.15%，之后反彈。到10月17日兩黨達成協(xié)議后，道瓊斯指數(shù)已經(jīng)超過9月30日的高點。
肆 美國主權(quán)債務(wù)評級和國債收益率
但如果評級機構(gòu)借此機會下調(diào)美國的三A級評級，就有可能對市場造成較大沖擊。比如2011年標準普爾將美國三A級債務(wù)評級下調(diào)，美國主權(quán)債務(wù)危機爆發(fā)，導(dǎo)致全球股市暴跌。標準普爾再次下調(diào)美國評級的可能性仍然存在。另外，美國國債收益率上周五上漲到1.4%以上。如持續(xù)上升會導(dǎo)致資金流出新興市場。
伍 中美關(guān)系
隨著華為高管歸國，中美關(guān)系有所緩和。市場預(yù)期接下來美國有可能會取消對中國進口商品征收的關(guān)稅。考慮到中國仍是美國國內(nèi)政治斗爭的一個焦點，短期應(yīng)該不會見到關(guān)稅取消。但中美關(guān)系的任何改善都有利于提高投資者的風險偏好。
陸 上周港股熊冠全球
上周A股和港股均下跌。港股恒生指數(shù)跌幅2.92%，熊冠全球。上證指數(shù)和深成指分別下跌0.02%和0.01%。歐美和其他新興市場股市均上漲。
I. China official PMI
A-share will stop trading from Oct. 1st to Oct. 7thand resume trading on Oct. 8th. HK market will stop trading on Oct.1st and resume trading on Oct. 4th. During the national holidays some economic data to be released and events might have an impact on the stock market. Before the national holidays China official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) and non-manufacturing PMI in October will be released on Sept 30th. This set of economic data will affect A-share as well as European and the US stock markets, which will open after China’s stock market closes. This set of data might be not be very good as China’s economy is on the downward trend. Moreover, the pandemic and that local governments tried to limit power supply only exacerbate the situation.
II. The US non-farm payroll
Second, the US non-farm payroll data in September will be released on Oct. 1st. If this data is in line with expectation, then the Fed would announce taper in Nov and then execute it in Dec. But if it is much expected then it might cause the Fed to wait and see.
III. Debt ceiling
The third is the debt ceiling discussion between the two parties in the US. While market understands that the two parties just try to get more benefits for themselves via the discussions about debt ceiling. It might cause the government to shutdown temporarily. In 2013, the US government shut down for due to the debt ceiling from Oct. 1st to Oct. 16th. During this period Dow Jones Index fell 2.2% maximum and then rebounded strongly. By Oct. 17th when the US government reached the deal on debt ceiling Dow Jones Index was higher than Sept 30th.
IV. Rating downgrade and treasury yield
But if the rating agencies downgraded the US ratings then this would cause the world stock market to crash, just as what happened in 2011 when Standard Poor downgraded the US sovereign rating. The last is the US treasury yield, which has gone up above 1.4% last Friday. If it kept going up, capital might flow out of emerging markets to the US market.
V. Last week market summary
Both A share and HK stocks fell last week. Hang Seng Index fell 2.9%, the worst-performing index around the world. Other major markets in the world all went up.
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