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周四A股主要指數(shù)漲跌不一。上證指數(shù)微跌，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指上漲0.81%。申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中11個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，漲幅居前的分別是計(jì)算機(jī)、紡織服裝和休閑服務(wù)，跌幅居前的行業(yè)是公用事業(yè)、建筑裝飾和銀行。A股兩市成交量創(chuàng)下去年10月份以來(lái)新低。港股恒生指數(shù)微跌，國(guó)企指數(shù)跌幅約1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。港股12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中5個(gè)下跌，其中跌幅居前的分別是科技、電訊和地產(chǎn)建筑。北上資金連續(xù)第二天凈流入，金額為29.5億人民幣。南下資金凈流出15.7億人民幣，連續(xù)第三天凈流出。

國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌崛起正當(dāng)時(shí)。根據(jù)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)驗(yàn)，當(dāng)一國(guó)GDP增速放緩，出口不振時(shí)，就是國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌崛起的時(shí)機(jī)。背后的原因是GDP高速增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)候，經(jīng)濟(jì)是粗放式發(fā)展，企業(yè)無(wú)需考慮產(chǎn)品品質(zhì)就能取得很高的收益。而GDP增速放緩一般都是工業(yè)化后期，此時(shí)人均GDP有很大提升，消費(fèi)者在有錢(qián)之后開(kāi)始對(duì)品質(zhì)的追求。2020年我國(guó)人均GDP超過(guò)1萬(wàn)美金，中國(guó)超越美國(guó)成為世界上最大的單一市場(chǎng)。而國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌也成為消費(fèi)者的首選。根據(jù)阿里研究院的統(tǒng)計(jì)，2019年線上中國(guó)品牌市場(chǎng)占有率達(dá)到72%。創(chuàng)新是驅(qū)動(dòng)國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌增長(zhǎng)的主要?jiǎng)恿Γ?019年品類創(chuàng)新對(duì)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模擴(kuò)大的貢獻(xiàn)度比2018年提升了15.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)達(dá)到44.8%。從新品銷售額占比和新品增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)度看，手機(jī)、服裝、家具、箱包配飾、運(yùn)動(dòng)戶外等是新品驅(qū)動(dòng)的重點(diǎn)行業(yè)。新疆棉事件無(wú)疑加快了國(guó)產(chǎn)品牌在服裝鞋帽等領(lǐng)域替代國(guó)外品牌的過(guò)程。2007年，本人曾帶著國(guó)內(nèi)某知名體育品牌在香港機(jī)構(gòu)投資者中路演，印象最深的就是他們抱怨某一線城市的消費(fèi)者對(duì)國(guó)外品牌的崇拜使他們很難滲透到這個(gè)市場(chǎng)。但隨著該品牌近幾年在紐約時(shí)代廣場(chǎng)不斷發(fā)布新品，品牌形象已足以比擬知名國(guó)際品牌，收入增長(zhǎng)也開(kāi)始領(lǐng)先國(guó)際品牌。歷史大勢(shì)，浩浩湯湯，順之者昌，逆之者亡。認(rèn)不清形勢(shì)的外資品牌注定被歷史拋棄。當(dāng)歷史車輪碾過(guò)的瞬間，你可能連他們的一聲嘆息都聽(tīng)不到。

美股探底回升。周期股帶領(lǐng)股市上漲，道指漲幅領(lǐng)先，納指微漲。上周初次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)為684,000，好于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。這是2020年3月中旬以來(lái)該數(shù)據(jù)首次低于70萬(wàn)人。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾談到在經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)之后逐漸退出寬松措施。

Major indexes in A-share mixed on Thursday. Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly while Chinext Index rose 0.81%. 11 sectors out of 28 rose, which were computer, textile and clothes and leisure service. Trading volume reached the lowest level since Oct. 2020. Hang Seng Index fell slightly while China Enterprises Index fell close to 1%. 5 out of 12 sectors in HK market fell with tech, telecom and property sector falling the most. North-bound capital saw the second-day net inflow of RMB 2.95 billion. South-bound capital saw the third-day net outflow of HK$1.57 billion.

It is time for national brands to emerge. According to what happened in developed markets, a country’s economy would slow down with export demand dwindles at post-industrialization stage. At this time residents usually enjoy much higher income levels and would require higher quality of life. In 2020 per capita GDP in China reached above US$10,000 and China has become the largest single consumption market. National brands have become the top choices of consumers. According to Ali Research Bureau national brands took 72% market share in online trading. Innovation is the main driver for the surge of national brands. Category innovation contributed 44.8% to national brands’ market share increase in 2019 versus 29.6% in 2018. Sales growth of mobile phone, clothes, furniture, and outdoors equipment are mainly driven by new products. What happened around Xinjiang cotton recently would undoubtedly promote the progress of national brands taking place of international brands. A domestic sports brand used to face challenges in a top-tier city due to consumers’ favoring international brands. However, it has improved brand image dramatically recently after releasing new products with innovation and fashion in New York Times Square. And its sales growth caught up with international brands very quickly.

The US stocks bottomed and rose. Cyclical stocks rose the most. Powell talked about exiting from quantitative easing when the economy recovers well.  

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