壹港股大幅跑輸全球主要指數
恒生指數繼7月份下跌9.94%，創下2018年10月以來最大月度跌幅，8月只是稍微喘了口氣，9月截止21日又下跌了6.64%。恒生指數年初至今下跌11%。全球16個主要國家和地區指數年初至今只有三個是下跌的，分別為深成指、巴西指數和恒生指數。深成指和巴西指數分別下跌0.4%和8%。漲幅最高的俄羅斯和印度指數上漲22-23%。因此，恒生指數遠遠跑輸全球主要指數。
貳 多個行業指數估值處在20年最低水平
恒生綜合行業指數中很多估值都處在20年來的較低甚至最低水平。在恒生11個主要行業中，靜態市盈率估值處在50%以上分位的只有醫療和非必需消費行業，分別處在歷史上91%和62%的分位。而綜合、原材料和工業處在歷史上44%、39%和19%的分位。除去以上5個行業，其余6個行業均處在10%以下分位。具體來說，資訊科技業、能源、公用事業、金融、電訊、地產分別處在歷史上8%、2%、1%、0.2%、0.2%和0.2%的分位。對于這些傳統行業，這個歷史可以追溯到2001年。
叁 離岸市場
港股估值如此之低一方面與其是離岸市場有很大關系，歐美機構投資者主導這個市場。一有風吹草動，這些投資人就會甩賣離場，先觀望再做決策。
肆 做空機制
另一方面，也與沽空有很大關系。港股常年的沽空比例保持在10%左右。但當市場面臨較大不確定時，沽空比率會迅速攀升。周一，港股市場沽空比例（沽空金額/可沽空股份成交額）為22.7%。因有香港地產商和內地地產商的負面消息，資金做空港股。周二，該比率下降到18.7%，當前沽空金額168.9億港幣，而可沽空股份成交金額為998.5億。可沽空股份成交金額一般小于市場總體成交量，因為有些股票不能被做空。有國際知名投資人近期因中國出臺的一些政策和發生的一些事件而明確表示做空中國股票，A股沒有做空機制，所以，大量的空單都跑到了港股。
伍 A股中秋假期之后怎么走？
港股周一大跌，而周二上漲；美股周一大跌，周二小跌。市場關注美聯儲議息會議的結果和A股中秋假期后的表現。拭目以待。
I. HK market performed poorly
Hang Seng Index fell 9.94% in July, the biggest monthly fall from Oct. 2018. It fell another 6.4% in September and fell 11% year-to-date by September 21st. Among the 16 global major stock indexes, it’s the worst-performing index. There are three indexes out of 16 that fell year-to-date, which are Shenzhen Composite Index and Brazil IBOVESPA Index along with Hang Seng Index. Shenzhen Composite Index and Brazil IBOVESPA Index fell 0.4% and 8.3% respectively year-to-date. As a comparison the best-performing index year-to-date are Russia and India stock index, which rose 23% and 22% respectively so far this year.
II. Sectors' valuation are at 20-year lows
Among Hang Seng 11 composite sector indexes, six have a price-to-earnings valuation at 10% percentile historically. They are technology, energy, utilities, telecom, financial,and property, whose percentile are 8%, 2%, 1%, 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.2%. Some traditional sectors such as financial and property are valued from 2001, i.e.,their valuation are at 20-year lows.
III. An off-shore market
That HK market performed poorly is due to that it is an off-shore market. The investors that have pricing power in this market are those institutional investors from the European and the US. They would sell the market when there are any uncertainties. From July some policies that targeted equality and common wealth have caused panic among those investors.
IV. Short mechanism is another reason
And short mechanism in HK market further exacerbates the situation. Some reknown international investors have announced that they are shorting Chinese stocks.A-share does not have short arrangements. So they put all of their shorting orders in HK market. The short ratio, which is the total shortable stocks’ trading value divided by short position, has been maintained at around 10% in HK market for years. Yet when risks loom, the ratio can go as high as more than 20%. On Monday this ratio shot up to 22.7% while on Tuesday it fell to 18.7%.
V. A-share is the focus after the Mid-Autumn festival
HK market recovered partially on Tuesday following big sell-off on Monday while the US stocks failed to rebound on Tuesday. Investors are watching how A-share will perform after the Mid-Autumn festival as well as the FOMC results, which would come out earlier Thursday morning in Asia time.
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