壹 港股大跌與香港地產商
港股周一大跌，因受到香港地產和內地金融地產行業的拖累。《路透》早前引述三位主要地產開發商和一位知情本鋼特區政府顧問，本港開發商被告知，要運用資源及影響力維護國家利益，更要回饋社會，協助解決住房短缺問題。
貳 住宅供應增加是大趨勢
香港大地產商都囤積了大量土地。截止2019年底，香港五大地產商的土地儲備總計為660萬平米，占香港私人住宅用地面積的38.8%。香港住宅供應增加將是未來的大趨勢。摩根·斯坦利今年4月曾發表報告稱供應是壓抑樓價上升及令住屋可負擔的最有力工具，三個潛在解決供應的方案為農田轉換、填海和增加地積比。其中農田轉換近期已有所加快，如新地收購了古洞新發展區首塊公開招標農地(歷時15年規劃)。
叁 香港樓市或下跌
摩根·斯坦利預估對地產商的最差情景為政府公布積極的供應目標，如由目前每年供應3.5萬個增至超過10萬個，則香港樓價至明年底估計或會下跌20%。其基本情景假設為今年樓價會上升9%，明年則升5%。如果樓市下跌，則地產商的利潤也會承壓。香港本地開發商周一股價跌幅都在10%左右。
肆 外資怎么看某內地房地產公司
瑞銀估計該房地產公司債務規模在3130億美金，其中190億美金為境外債券。貝萊德、瑞銀和匯豐是該房地產公司最大的境外債券持有者。周一匯豐的信貸違約掉期上升了16%。市場擔憂該公司債務問題會傳染到全球市場，甚至認為將會影響美聯儲的貨幣政策。也有分析師認為該公司債務只是中國的問題，政府會采用債轉股等方式解決。彭博社報道，部分銀行已經為該公司的倒閉做好了準備，通過計提壞賬準備等。凱投宏觀分析師認為從中國政府處理包商銀行和2015年股災和貨幣貶值事件中可以看出，中國政府會允許短暫的金融混亂，但最終都會出手平息大規模的債務拖欠。
伍 市場綜述
周一歐美市場也大幅下跌，也側面反應了投資者對風險傳染的擔憂。美聯儲的議息會議結果將會在周三出爐，市場在不安中等待其是否會開啟縮減債券購買計劃的消息。截止上周五，美股已連跌三周，有分析師認為當前為買入良機。
I. HK market crashed
HK market crashed on Monday. One reason is that HK local property developers were told to contribute to the welfare of society and could not maintain their monopolistic positions. This means that they would not have the high margin as previously. All of the HK property developers' stocks fell at around -10%.
II. Housing supply is to increase
Both analysts from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley believed that the best way to contain the high housing prices were to increase supply. The property developers have a big land reserve. By the end of 2019 the five largest property developers have a land reserve at 660 square meters,which is 38.8% of the total land supply for private housing market. The increase of housing supply is certain in the future.
III. Housing prices to fall
Morgan Stanley estimated that if government can increase property supply from current 35,000 to 100,000 the housing prices would drop 20%. But the base case scenario they assume is that housing prices would increase 9% this year and then 5% in2022.
IV. International investors view a Chinese property company differently
UBS estimated that the property developer had US$313 billion debt with US$19 billion off-shore bond. Blackrock,UBS and HSBC are the largest off-shore bond holders of the company. HSBC’s Credit Default Swap, a derivative that measures risk of default, rose 16% on Monday. Some analysts worried that the debt issue would spread to the US and even make the Fed delay tapering. Others believed that this would be strictly a China issue.
V. Still no consensus so far
Capital Economics thought that Chinese government would allow temporary crisis in financial conditions but would intervene in case of large-scale default.They judged this from both Baoshang Bank and the drop of equities and RMB currency in 2015. There is no consensus on this issue. Market is waiting for news on restructuring in the coming weeks. The European and the US market also crashed. Investors wait for the results of the FOMC, which will conclude on Wednesday
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