欧产日产国产精品乱噜噜_羞羞视频免费观看网站_伊人在线视频_一级电影免费_久久免费综合视频_99国产精品国产免费观看

       壹 富可敵國(guó)的對(duì)沖基金

      塞巴斯蒂安·馬拉比的《富可敵國(guó)》一書刻畫了近代金融史上著名的對(duì)沖基金。這些對(duì)沖基金憑借管理人的能力做到了富可敵國(guó)。所有的對(duì)沖基金都曾經(jīng)遭遇過重大挫敗，而挫敗的原因各不相同。

       貳 長(zhǎng)期資本管理公司、老虎基金和量子基金

       像長(zhǎng)期資本管理公司，它的失敗不是由于衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方法過于簡(jiǎn)單，而是由于它想要對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確測(cè)量，而這是不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的。有一些對(duì)沖基金規(guī)模太大，市場(chǎng)崩潰時(shí)沒有辦法跑掉。比如2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅時(shí)的量子基金和老虎基金。這兩只基金在20世紀(jì)90年代末是美國(guó)最大的兩只對(duì)沖基金，盡管他們當(dāng)時(shí)的規(guī)模只有200億美金。老虎基金奉行價(jià)值投資理念，認(rèn)為科網(wǎng)股的泡沫遲早會(huì)破裂，因此重倉(cāng)了美國(guó)航空公司。可隨著美國(guó)航空公司的利潤(rùn)下降，股價(jià)在1999年初的三周內(nèi)下跌了29%。由于老虎基金重倉(cāng)該股票，很難拋售出來。老虎基金的風(fēng)格就是重倉(cāng)持有最多十只股票，在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫危機(jī)發(fā)生時(shí)，人人都知道他們持有的是什么股票。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手選擇在他們之前拋售這些股票。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫直到2000年3月份才開始破滅，再次印證了凱恩斯所說的“市場(chǎng)保持非理性的時(shí)間總是比人們預(yù)期的長(zhǎng)”。堅(jiān)持價(jià)值投資的老虎基金被迫關(guān)閉。與老虎基金相反，量子基金是由于重倉(cāng)科網(wǎng)股而在泡沫破滅后遭遇重大損失，不得不關(guān)閉。

        叁 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和收益是對(duì)等的

        還有一些對(duì)沖基金購(gòu)買了流動(dòng)性不足的資產(chǎn)，在一個(gè)流動(dòng)性不充分的市場(chǎng)中，會(huì)有大量的便宜貨，但因?yàn)殄e(cuò)誤所付出的代價(jià)也常常是巨大的。縱觀歷史上成功的對(duì)沖基金，無論成功或者失敗都是因?yàn)橹貍}(cāng)某一股票或投資品種造成的。所以，投資里風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和收益總是對(duì)等的。想要收獲多大收益，就要付出多大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。總之，沒有免費(fèi)的午餐。

        肆  市場(chǎng)綜述

        A股和港股再次下跌。港股本周再次遭遇股災(zāi)式下跌，指數(shù)全面跌破一倍凈資產(chǎn)。房地產(chǎn)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、博彩等板塊遭到全面拋售。這應(yīng)該是恒生指數(shù)歷史上第四次跌破一倍凈資產(chǎn)。歷史上看，每次恒指破凈后都會(huì)有表現(xiàn)較好的時(shí)期。A股因新能源板塊下跌。大幅美股探底回升。雖然8月份的零售數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)比上漲超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，但部分原因是因?yàn)檎{(diào)低了7月份的基數(shù)所致。投資人對(duì)9月份的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)仍然保持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。

I. More money than God

In “More money than God” Sebatian Mallaby described how those famous hedge funds rose and fell. The funds that lost a big sum of money and were forced to be closed made the same type of mistakes.

II. Three hedge funds that went bust

Long-term capital management tried to price risks which turned out to be impossible. Some hedge funds were too big to escape from the market. Tiger Fund and Quantum Fund were among them. Tiger Fund was a value investor and held a big chunk of America Airline stock. When the airline’s profit began to turn negative the stock price fell 29% in three weeks. Tiger Fund could not sell it out due to its big exposure. Quantum Fund was a trend follower and exposed to internet stocks heavily before the internet bubble went bust. It could not escape from the bubble. Both funds were closed in 2000. 

III. Risk and return are associated closely

Other funds invest in assets that were not liquid. The pricing of these illiquid assets might imply big mistakes and when things changed the prices could fall sharply. From the ups and downs of these famous hedge funds we can see that risk and return are positively related in investment. The higher return one would like to pursue, the higher risk he or she needs to take. In a word there is no free lunch.

IV. Hang Seng Index fell to 1x PB

A-share and HK stocks fell. HK stock market suffered crash this week. Property, gaming and tech sectors all fell sharply.Hang Seng Index’s valuation fell to 1x price-to-book (PB) for the fourth timein history. Every time Hang Seng Index falls below 1x it would perform well for some time. A-share fell due to the rumors that raw material for new energy sector might be procured in centralized manner. This sounds unlikely given that China does not own much Li-mines. The new energy sector rose quite a lot thisyear and investors might take profit before the Mid-autumn Festival holidays. 

V. Investors in the US market are still cautious

The US stocks bottomed out. Retail sales in August rose 0.7% month-on-month versus down 0.8% expected. Yet the retail sales beat came after the intial estimate forJuly was revised down sharply from a month-over-month gain of 0.5% to a decline of 0.8%. Investors are still cautious about the market in September, which is historically performed poorly.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。