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        壹 美元將走強

      美聯儲很有可能在9月21、22日的議息會議后宣布縮減債券購買規模的決定。市場預期我國央行將在10月份降準。一緊一松，中美兩國的貨幣政策將走向相反的兩個方向。從匯率的角度看，如果美國收緊流動性，對美元是有上行推動力的。但美元上行的幅度會有多大呢？或者反之人民幣貶值的幅度會在多少？我們在這次也許不一樣中分析過：由于通脹的高企，美國的實際利率可能較長時間保持在較低水平，這也意味著美元的上漲將不會有較強的支撐。

        貳 幅度也許有限

       當然匯率不僅與貨幣流動性相對強弱有關，也受到兩國經濟增長的相對強弱影響。從經濟增長的角度看，美國經濟很有可能在3季度達到此輪增長的頂點，此后將會下行。而中國經濟在今年3月份達到增長的頂點，此后就開始下行。從庫存周期的角度看，美國經濟的下行周期通常在12個月。因此，明年3季度大概率是美國經濟的最低點。而從歷史看，中國經濟下行周期通常持續一到兩年，因此經濟增速的最低點最快有可能在明年2季度觸及，最晚有可能在2023年達到（具體請參見2021年A股投資展望，其中對中美兩國的庫存周期有比較詳細的論述）。所以，未來中美兩國經濟都可能處在下行階段中。綜合考慮，美元上行的幅度可能是有限的，意味著人民幣貶值的空間也不會很大。

        叁 中國支持性政策不斷出臺

        近期國家出臺各種政策以支持經濟發展。社融增速可能在年底之前同比增速會持續下行，但廣義貨幣同比增速觸底應該是大概率事件。雖然未來隨著經濟增速再下臺階，廣義貨幣有可能會再次突破8%的最低同比增速水平，但這應該是一個平緩的過程，近期不會看到。政策支持下，經濟應不會太差，股市還有很多機會。

       肆 美股和A股今年表現差異較大

       進入9月份，各家投行紛紛下調標普500年底前的目標價，認為在新冠疫情的沖擊下，美國經濟將會走弱，美股年底前或面臨10%左右的調整。但年初以來我國資本市場與美股的表現差異巨大，美股如調整對A股和港股市場的沖擊應是有限的。

       伍 上周市場綜述

     上周A股和港股在全球漲幅居前。上證指數和深成指分別上漲4.2%和3.4%，在全球16個主要國家和地區指數漲幅居第2和第3位。美股道指連續下跌5天。

I.The US dollar would appreciate 

Market now expects that the Federal Reserve would announce taper at the FOMC on Sept 22nd this year and begin to implement it before the end of this year. In the mean time many analysts predicted that the People's Bank of China would cut bank reserve rate in October to boost the slowing economy. So China and the US would diverge in monetary policy with the US to strengthen it while China to loosen it. In this case the US dollar would appreciate and the RMB would depreciate. In “This time could be different(這次也許不一樣)” we have pointed out that due to the high inflation the real interest rate in the US might be maintained at low levels. Hence, the US dollar would not appreciate as much as previous. 

II.But not that much

But how much the US dollar appreciates and the RMB depreciates also depends on the economy growth rate of the US and China. China’s economy reached its peak level in March this year and the US economy is expected to reach the top in 3Q2021. After that both China and the US economy would come down for some time. In the US the economy slow-down in an inventory cycle usually takes 12 months, i.e., the US economy would likely reach its lowest point of growth rate in 3Q2022. And China’s economy would take one or two years to get to the bottom, which is 1H2022 or early 2023. In short economy growth rate does not support a very strong US dollar as well as a very weak RMB. 

III. A-share would not go down with the US stocks

Moreover, China has implemented many policies to stimulate economy. The broad monetary supply(M2)  growth rate has been at a very low level and would not go further lower in the near term. Fiscal policies are becoming more accomodative. Recently many houses in the US downgraded SP 500 price target at the end of this year due to Delta variant and the likely taper.Yet year-to-date the US and China stock markets performed quite differently. We do not expect that the US market correction would have a negative impact on both A-share and HK stock markets.

IV. A-share and HK stocks led the global markets last week

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. Among the 16 major indexes globally Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index were ranked at the second the third in terms of rise range. 

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