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       壹 創(chuàng)新行業(yè)引領(lǐng)市場

       近期市場上元宇宙概念股表現(xiàn)出色，投資人也紛紛學(xué)習(xí)了解元宇宙這個突如其來的概念。威廉·歐內(nèi)爾在《笑傲股市》一書中指出：強(qiáng)勢行業(yè)孕育超級牛股，順應(yīng)行業(yè)趨勢至關(guān)重要。對于一個創(chuàng)新主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，新興創(chuàng)新者通常會引領(lǐng)市場。這在美國股市上得到驗證。

       貳 創(chuàng)新隨時代而變化

      從美國股票歷史看，強(qiáng)勢行業(yè)跟隨創(chuàng)新的趨勢而變化。在上世紀(jì)50-60年代，航空航天曾經(jīng)多年獨領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷。上世紀(jì)80年代到2000年，計算機(jī)、食品醫(yī)藥等為強(qiáng)勢行業(yè)。牛市中的主導(dǎo)行業(yè)通常會產(chǎn)生外溢效應(yīng)。20世紀(jì)60年代末，航空產(chǎn)業(yè)由于噴氣式飛機(jī)的引進(jìn)而進(jìn)入復(fù)興時期，航空公司股票暴漲。

       叁 創(chuàng)新具有外溢效應(yīng)

       航空公司的增長在持續(xù)幾年后外溢到酒店業(yè)，游客對住宿需求的增加使酒店業(yè)股票強(qiáng)勢上漲。20世紀(jì)90年代，隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的騰飛，消費者對網(wǎng)絡(luò)訪問速度和帶寬的需求增加。網(wǎng)絡(luò)產(chǎn)業(yè)的股票暴漲，而專供光纖產(chǎn)業(yè)的公司股票也隨之上漲。歐內(nèi)爾將上述情況稱為股市里的跟進(jìn)效應(yīng)。還有一種被稱為親戚股票，這在制造業(yè)中很常見。比如20世紀(jì)60年代隨著航空需求的崛起，波音公司出售了大量噴氣式飛機(jī)。每一個噴氣式飛機(jī)都有一個莫納格萊姆公司制造的洗手間。該公司利潤上漲了2倍，股票最高上漲了10倍。

      肆 A股的創(chuàng)新行業(yè)

      A股市場也是創(chuàng)新行業(yè)引領(lǐng)市場。跟進(jìn)效應(yīng)和親戚股票現(xiàn)象在A股里也比比皆是。比如A股中航空和酒店通常表現(xiàn)一致：航空好，則酒店也表現(xiàn)好。反之亦然。元宇宙概念股中也能看到跟進(jìn)效應(yīng)：游戲產(chǎn)業(yè)股票表現(xiàn)好，光纖產(chǎn)業(yè)股票也表現(xiàn)好，因為VR、AR游戲?qū)捰休^高要求。隨著新能源和光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的火爆，不僅鋰電池股票表現(xiàn)較好，制造新能源電池和光伏材料的原材料價格都強(qiáng)勢上漲。創(chuàng)新行業(yè)引領(lǐng)市場，經(jīng)常會給人以“蕭瑟秋風(fēng)今又是，換了人間”的感覺。但如果沒有業(yè)績支撐，炒作終將停止。

      伍 市場綜述

      A股和港股下跌。科創(chuàng)50跌幅1.8%，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指跌近1個百分點，上證指數(shù)微跌。港股博彩股漲幅領(lǐng)先，因粵澳新通道青茂口岸周三開通。隨著粵港澳繼續(xù)開放通關(guān)，低估值的博彩股有望持續(xù)受益。美股道指連續(xù)第三天下跌，紐約聯(lián)儲主席發(fā)表講話認(rèn)為年底前開始縮減債券購買是合適的舉措。

I. Innovation sectors led the market rally 

Mettaverse-concept stocks have rallied recently in A-share. Investors participated in meetings and conferences to learn about the new concept. In his popular book “How to make money in stocks ” William O’neil pointed out that strong-performing sectors lead stock markets and to follow the market trend is key to make money. Those strong-performing sectors are usually innovation-driven.

II. Innovation sectors change from time to time 

At different times innovation drives different sectors. In the 1950 to 1960s, airlines led the market rally. From 1980 to 2000, computer sector was one of the best-performing sectors that drove the broad market. 

III.Spill-over effects

These strong sectors usually have spill-over effects. Take the example of airline sector in the last 1950-60s. Due to that jets were created airline sectors grew very fast. The travelling demands from consumers eventually pushed up demands for hospitality.  Hotel sector benefited and rallied along with the airline stocks. In the 1990s, with the booming of internet sector demands for internet speed and band grew very fast. The internet stocks rallied and those companies who provided optical fiber and cable rose as well. O’neil called the above phenomenon as follow-on effect. There is another effect which he called cousin stocks, which is especially true in manufacturing sector. While jets became popular in the 1960s, every jet had atoilet manufactured by Monagramm. The company saw its earnings grow 2 times andstock prices rose 10 times. 

IV. The same in A-share

In A-share both follow-on effect and cousin stocks exist. When mettaverse stocks rose, those fiber and cable producers' stocks also rallied. In new energy sector, the battery producer stock rallied. And its raw material providers’ stocks also rose quite a lot. It seems to investors that the market changes fast. But once these companies’ earnings growth slow down the stocks also lose momentum to go up.

V. Market summary

A share and HK stocks fell. STAR50 Index and Chinext Index fell 1.8% and 0.97% while Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly.The US DOW Index fell for the third day. Biege Book showed that economy moderated in July and August due to Delta variant. 

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