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        壹 8月份進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期

        8月份出口數(shù)據(jù)超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，出口以美元計(jì)同比上漲25.6%，超出是市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的17.1%，也高于7月份的19.3%。對(duì)各個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)的出口都有增長(zhǎng)，但最主要的是對(duì)歐盟的出口增速較高。進(jìn)口同比上漲33.1%，也超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。

        貳 經(jīng)濟(jì)也許不太差

       一方面海外疫情尤其是東南亞疫情導(dǎo)致部分訂單轉(zhuǎn)移到國(guó)內(nèi)，另一方面，因?yàn)檫\(yùn)力受限，部分國(guó)內(nèi)和海外訂單提前。半導(dǎo)體等產(chǎn)品的出口增速也較快。8月份數(shù)據(jù)顯示出口仍是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力。超預(yù)期的出口也許意味著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能并不太差。海外疫情連綿不斷造成供應(yīng)鏈被打破，我國(guó)當(dāng)前可能是全球唯一能夠保持正常生產(chǎn)的國(guó)家。如果出口持續(xù)超預(yù)期，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在3、4季度下行的速率可能會(huì)很平緩。

         叁 全球通脹超預(yù)期

        歐元區(qū)通脹率已經(jīng)達(dá)到3%，為10年來(lái)的最高水平。德國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲3.9%，為1993年12月以來(lái)的最高水平。德國(guó)在魏瑪共和國(guó)時(shí)期曾經(jīng)發(fā)生過(guò)惡性通貨膨脹。因此，德國(guó)從那之后一直把通脹視作大敵。當(dāng)前無(wú)論是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還是歐央行都認(rèn)為通脹是暫時(shí)的，因?yàn)橥浿械妮^大上升來(lái)自于供應(yīng)鏈的破壞。但這個(gè)暫時(shí)要持續(xù)多久沒(méi)有人知道。歐美疫情控制不力很可能使供應(yīng)鏈再次遭到打擊。同時(shí)，很多大宗商品價(jià)格持續(xù)飆升，對(duì)通脹也構(gòu)成壓力。

        肆 央行如何應(yīng)對(duì)？

        如果通脹不是暫時(shí)的，則各國(guó)央行面臨較大挑戰(zhàn)。如果過(guò)早收回流動(dòng)性，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將會(huì)夭折。歐央行在2008年全球金融危機(jī)之后就曾經(jīng)犯過(guò)這樣的錯(cuò)誤，導(dǎo)致歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入二次衰退。但如果落后于通脹，則通脹有失控的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)不那么差，通脹可能會(huì)很高，這種情況下我國(guó)央行會(huì)如何應(yīng)對(duì)呢? 也許市場(chǎng)期待的對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)支持的政策要等得更久一點(diǎn)。

       伍 過(guò)去幾年美股九月份是上漲的

       因8月出口數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期，A股和港股上漲。上證指數(shù)已經(jīng)逼近前期高點(diǎn)，有策略師看到4000點(diǎn)。美股因擔(dān)憂Delta疫情的負(fù)面影響而下跌。高盛調(diào)低美國(guó)2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速預(yù)測(cè)至5.7%，市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)期在6.2%。摩根·斯坦利將美國(guó)股市評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)到低配，認(rèn)為9、10月份股市將會(huì)面臨調(diào)整壓力。9月份歷史上看確實(shí)是一個(gè)調(diào)整的月份，但是過(guò)去幾年9月份都是上漲的。

I. Export-import data was better than expected 

China export in August jumped 25.6% year-on-year, better than 17.1% expected and higher than 19.3% in July. Export grew across the board but thatto Europe grew the fastest. Import grew 33.1%, higher than expected as well.The better-than-expected import-export data was because that overseas orders shifted from Southeast Asia to China as COVID-19 pandemic made countries in Southeast Asia hard to organize mass production. Moreover, due to the shipping challenges orders for the Christmas festival were made earlier than previous. Export growth in China could be maintained at a relatively high level in the remaining four months of this year. This is mainly due to the pandemic. Around the world only China can control the spread of Delta variant in an efficient way. As such the 3rd and 4th quarter economic growth might not slow down too much in China. 

II. Inflation is higher than expected

Yet inflation is still a concern around the world. Germany saw its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inAugust rose 3.9% year-on-year, the highest reading from Dec. 1993. The CPI in Euro-region reached 3% year-on-year, the highest in 10 years. Germany ever suffered hyperinflation in history. Hence, policy makers in Germany always take inflation as their top policy target.

III. Challenges for central banks 

However, at this moment both the Federal Reserve in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) consider inflation as transitory.Yet, it is hard to make it clear how long the transitory inflation would last.This actually poses big challenges for these policy makers. ECB made a mistake in 2011 by withdrawing supporting policies earlier and caused the Euro-region tobe in depression for the second time after 2008 global financial crises. This time they wowed not to make the same mistake. Yet given the high inflation,they might risk acting too late. For China if economy is better than expected,then the supporting policies might come later than expected.

IV. Market summary

The better-than-expected export-import data in August boosted both A-share and HK stocks. DOW and SP500 fell due to concern on the pandemic.

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