壹 護城河是指什么?
1999年,沃倫巴菲特在《財富》雜志發表了一篇文章,談到了護城河,并指出“被寬闊的、長流不息的護城河所保護的產品或服務能夠為投資者帶來烽火的回報”。企業的護城河包括無形資產(品牌、專利和監管牌照)、成本優勢、顧客粘性、規模效應和進入壁壘等方面。
貳 護城河五要素
無形資產和成本優勢都比較好理解。顧客粘性在很大程度上是指顧客使用產品的轉換成本。如果轉換成本很高,一般顧客很難轉換。比如一些手機零部件生產企業,通常在手機品牌商開始設計產品時就參與進來,這種情況下被換掉的概率較低。當然也不排除表現不太好的被淘汰的可能性。規模效應就是指增加新的客戶對企業帶來的額外生產成本是遞減的。通常,規模越大,企業的生產成本越低。當然規模效應是有邊界的。比如養奶牛的牧場可能幾千頭是合適的規模。萬頭牧場所帶來的環境污染以及對草場的壓力就會大很多,所以,規模大反而不經濟,適度最好。進入壁壘通常是指巨額的資本投入或銷售費用的投入。比如芯片行業的投資動輒上千億美金,這就帶來了很大的進入壁壘。
叁 護城河被打破了?
如果一家公司能夠通過競爭優勢,維持至少10年賺取超額收益的能力,則該公司擁有比較寬廣的護城河。但護城河不是靜態的,而是動態發展的。年初至今,一些擁有寬廣護城河的公司跌幅較大。他們的護城河被打破了嗎?護城河其實沒有被打破,但某些方面確實變得不那么具有競爭力了。比如一家醫藥公司,其研發費用占收入的比例一直保持在雙位數,研發能力保持在市場前列。但是,由于藥品集采失利,研發能力無法體現到盈利上,導致企業的業績低迷,被投資者拋售。再比如一家食品飲料公司,其品牌優勢明顯,但是由于產品價格高企導致客戶粘性下降,市場擔心這會影響未來的成長性。因此,有了護城河并不是一勞永逸,企業還需要不斷地努力以保持護城河的寬度和深度。否則,就有短期股價大幅調整的風險。
肆 全球股市上漲
A股和港股在消費醫藥股帶領下大幅反彈,美股因勞動節休市。8月份中國經濟數據即將發布,值得關注。
I. What is the moat?
In 1999 Warren Buffett published a famous article in Fortune magazine, in which he pointed out that a company with a broad moat that can last for a long time can make a lot of money for investors. The so-called moat of a company includes intangible assets such as brands, patents and supervision rules, cost advantage, viscosity of customers, scale effects and entry barriers.
II. Five elements of a moat
Intangible assets and cost advantage are easy to understand. A type of viscosity of customers refers to the high costs for a customer to shift to another producer or service provider. A case in point is in mobile components and parts producers. They usually participate in the mobile phone design of mobile brands from the beginning and adjust their production accordingly. Mobile brands would face big cost to shift to other components and parts producers. Scale effects are also familiar to investors. Yet scale effects have boundaries. It is not the truth that the bigger the scale the better the results. Take the example of raising milk cows, a couple of thousands milk cows have scale effects. But 10 thousand orabove would cause environmental issues and put a pressure to the grasslands. A type of entry barriers refer to big capital expenditure. This is especially true in foundry sector, in which US$ 100 billion capital expenditure is not unusual.
III. The moat can change
The moat is not static but changes from time to time. Year-to-date stock prices of some companies with broad moats have fallen sharply, implying that their moats are not strong in some aspects. Take the example of an innovative drug producer it has maintained its research and development cost to its sales ratio at double digits for years and enjoy competitive advantages in innovation drugs. However, due to that it lost in bids to national mass procurement of drugs its innovation advantage can not be turned into profits. In summary a company should make efforts to maintain its moat as long as possible.
IV. Global stock markets rose
A share and HK stocks rose.Healthcare and food and beverage sector led the rally. The US stock market closed for Labor Day holiday.
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