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 壹 低利率孕育牛市

      悉尼·霍莫在其著名的著作《利率史》中說過一句話：利率是任何經(jīng)濟(jì)體的體溫計。利率不僅是衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)體的重要指標(biāo)，而且與股市也緊密相關(guān)。一般來說，利率上漲，股市下跌；而利率下跌，股市上漲。美國上世紀(jì)兩次長牛都是在低利率的環(huán)境下出現(xiàn)的。20世紀(jì)50年代，美國的實際短期利率一直在1.4%的低位。1949年到1956年美國股市開啟了一波長牛。到了80年代，美國10年期國債收益率從最高接近16%下降到5%，股市也開啟了一波轟轟烈烈的牛市。

      貳 投資債券還是股票要看利率

      有投資人不理解為什么利率和股市是負(fù)相關(guān)的關(guān)系。投資人在投資時，可以投資債券，也可以投資股票。當(dāng)債券利率較低的時候，投資人就會選擇投資股票；而當(dāng)債券利率高時，投資人就會投資債券。所以，在大類資產(chǎn)配置中，投資股票還是債券是最先考慮的問題。

      叁 我國過去利率水平偏高

      利率和股市的關(guān)系適用于全球，A股市場也不例外。我國10年期國債收益率過去20年在2.5-4.5%之間徘徊，表面上看利率水平并不高。但實際利率水平遠(yuǎn)高于此。溫州地區(qū)民間綜合融資利率（“溫州指數(shù)”）從2012年至今一直保持在雙位數(shù)，2012年最高達(dá)到21%。這一方面是由于拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的行業(yè)需要大量資金，如房地產(chǎn)；另一方面，中小企業(yè)一直面臨融資難、融資貴的難題。

      肆 未來有望持續(xù)走低

      但隨著央行推動降低對中小微企業(yè)的實際貸款利率，中央對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的三條紅線政策的逐步推進(jìn)以及對影子銀行的清理和整治，中國實際利率已經(jīng)開始走低。根據(jù)GDP平減指數(shù)計算的2021年6月份的實際貸款利率已降到1.08%，達(dá)到10年的新低。而溫州指數(shù)也從21%降到最近13-16%的水平。

      伍 A股也有希望天天漲

      這對股市而言無疑是好消息。近期，股市放量滯漲，人們猜測股市的資金來自哪里。其實，只要利率持續(xù)下降，各路資金都會來到股市。隨著中國治理整頓金融市場中的各種亂象，未來利率水平會持續(xù)下降。期待A股能像美國股市那樣天天上漲也許不是一個奢望。

       陸 A股的好消息來了

       北京交易所成立利好股市。專精特新中小企業(yè)、券商以及相關(guān)IT企業(yè)將會受益。A股和港股周四均上漲，低估值股票引領(lǐng)市場，而高估值的半導(dǎo)體、光伏和新能源持續(xù)調(diào)整。美國上周申請失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)好于市場預(yù)期，美股再創(chuàng)新高。

I. Interest rates and stock markets 

In his popular book “A history of interest rates” Sidney Homer said a famous sentence: “Interest rate is the thermometer of an economy”. In fact, interest rate is not only essential to economic growth but also determines stock market trends.In general, when interest rate is down stock market would rise and vice versa. Some might wonder whey interest rate and stock is negatively correlated. This is because bond and stock can be substitute of each other. When an investor wants to invest, he or she can invest in bond or stock. If interest rate is higher,he would choose bond. Otherwise, he would choose stocks. Hence, it is the foremost thing in asset allocation to determine which one should be invested more, bond or stocks. 

II. Interest rates in China were at high levels in the past

This negative correlation between interest rate and stocks apply to the world including China. While 10-year treasury yield of China has been around 2.5-4.5% over the last 20 years, the real lending costs were not low at all. The composite lending interest rate in Wenzhou (Wenzhou Index),a city in Zhejiang Province where private lending is prosperous, has been maintained at double-digit over the last 10 years. The highest lending cost was 21% in 2012.On one hand those sectors driving economic growth such as property need a lot of capital; on the other hand, small- to medium-sized enterprises (SME) have been faced with the challenges of getting low-cost capital. 

III. The falling interest rates bodes well for stock markets

However, the People’s Bank of China began to push down lending cost for SME from last year. The three-red policies for property companies mean that capital would not flow into this sector as previously. Also China has been cleaning up shadow banking for a couple of years. All of these decrease the lending costs. The Wenzhou Index has come down to 13-16% recently. As such the stock markets in China would go up as more money would flow in. Those who expect that A-share to rise continuously like the US stocks might not be disappointed.  

IV. Good news for China's stock markets

The establishment of Beijing Stock Exchange is good for A-share and HK stock market. Brokers and related IT companies would benefit the most. The US initial jobless claim last week came in better than expectation. The US stocks reached another record high.  

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。