壹 放量滯漲
2021年9月的第一個(gè)交易日，A股成交量創(chuàng)出今年以來最高水平，超過1.7萬億人民幣。但是，上證指數(shù)和深成指均上漲不到一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。市場呈現(xiàn)放量滯漲的局面。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中，10個(gè)下跌，18個(gè)上漲。其中跌幅居前的是有色金屬、電氣設(shè)備和采掘，漲幅居前的是非銀金融、食品飲料和房地產(chǎn)。
貳 新抱團(tuán)股的估值
所謂新的抱團(tuán)股--新能源、光伏和半導(dǎo)體板塊是重災(zāi)區(qū)。9月1日A股市場84 個(gè)跌停股大部分來自于這三個(gè)行業(yè)。我們之前曾經(jīng)提示過新的抱團(tuán)股很有可能重蹈舊的抱團(tuán)股即白酒和醫(yī)藥的覆轍。一方面，新抱團(tuán)股與舊抱團(tuán)股一樣，都是在機(jī)構(gòu)資金的推升下上演了波瀾壯闊的行情，估值已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重脫離基本面。半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)很多個(gè)股的市盈率估值都是三位數(shù)。光伏板塊雖然估值還比較理性，但是也處在歷史高位。新能源的估值情況與半導(dǎo)體類似，估值畸高，三位數(shù)估值比比皆是。作為新能源電池的重要原材料，鋰的開采或提取成本在每噸2-4萬元人民幣之間，但鋰板塊股票估值一萬噸產(chǎn)量對(duì)應(yīng)上百億市值，估值泡沫巨大。
叁 新抱團(tuán)股的基本面
另一方面，近期新抱團(tuán)股負(fù)面消息不斷。在半導(dǎo)體板塊，國家大基金和實(shí)控人減持不斷，而臺(tái)積電方面又傳來要設(shè)備商降價(jià)15%的消息，對(duì)板塊構(gòu)成進(jìn)一步的打壓。光伏板塊的龍頭業(yè)績差強(qiáng)人意，市場擔(dān)心未來的盈利增長可能面臨挑戰(zhàn)。而新能源電池面臨擴(kuò)產(chǎn)的壓力，特別是龍頭企業(yè)前一段時(shí)間發(fā)布大額定增計(jì)劃，造成板塊承壓。
肆 冷門股表現(xiàn)較好
與這些高估值熱門板塊相反，低估值冷門股表現(xiàn)較好。這也是與他們的估值有關(guān)系。非銀金融中的券商和保險(xiǎn)估值都處在歷史低位，房地產(chǎn)板塊更是20年來的估值新低。食品飲料板塊在春節(jié)后經(jīng)過半年多的調(diào)整，估值也相對(duì)合理。漲幅較高的大基建板塊估值也處在多年的低位，股息率可以媲美銀行板塊。我們在你買與不買，價(jià)值都在這里中分析過低估值板塊的投資價(jià)值。從周二市場表現(xiàn)看，高估值板塊是“你賣與不賣，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都在這里”的一個(gè)好例證。所以，買股票是要看估值的。這是投資常識(shí)之一。
伍 關(guān)注本周五的美國8月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)
市場預(yù)期為增加75萬個(gè)工作崗位。9月份聯(lián)邦和地方的失業(yè)補(bǔ)貼均將到期，有可能會(huì)促進(jìn)就業(yè)進(jìn)一步好轉(zhuǎn)。中國8月份財(cái)新制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)16個(gè)月以來首次低于50。
I. Huge trading volume on September 1st, 2021
The first trading day of September saw huge trading volume in A-share at above RMB 1.7 trillion. 10 out of 28 sectors in A-share fell with the remaining 18 rising. Non-ferrous metal, electric equipment and mining fell the most while non-bank financials, food and beverage and property rose the most. II.New group-holding stocks' valuation
The so-called new group-holding stocks including energy, photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors are the most suffered. Among 84 stocks that reached down limit on September 1st,most of them came from these three sectors. We have reminded the risks associated with these sectors and predicted that they would repeat what happened to the old group-holding stocks including liquor and healthcare. The reason is that these sectors’ valuation was pushed to a limit by capital that flew in. Three-digit price-to-earnings ratio is pretty common in these three hot sectors. For lithium miners the valuation is also very extreme. The complete cost of mining lithium is RMB 20-40 k per ton. Yet the lithium miners are valued at more than RMB 10 billion per ton of lithium which they are expected to produce in a year. Moreover, these sectors’ fundamentals were faced with challenges. For semiconductor sector the national funds that invested in this sector began to cut holdings as well as those beneficial controlling persons who own companies in this sector.
III. Fundamentals are faced with challenges
For new energy sector the leading player has recently announced a big plan to expand capacity via issuing new shares. For photovoltaic sector the top player’s earnings in 1H2021 was disappointed, making market concerned about the growth prospects of this sector.
IV.Low-valued sectors performed well
Contrary to these high-valued sectors those low-valued sectors performed well. We have analyzed these sectors in “Value is there no matter you buy or not你買與不買，價(jià)值都在這里”. For high-valued sectors it would be that the risks are there whether you leave it or not. So when investing in stocks it is necessary to see their valuation levels at the first place. In fact, this should be a common sense.
V. Watch out for the key economic data
The US stocks little changed. Market pays attention to the US non-farm payroll data in August. China’s Caixin August manufacturing PMI came in below 50, the first time in 16 months.
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