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壹 A股和港股估值全球倒數(shù)

      截止2021年8月25日，全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)（包括主要西方國(guó)家、金磚五國(guó)除南非以及亞洲主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)）的主要指數(shù)中，A股和港股估值都處在較低水平。以靜態(tài)市凈率來(lái)衡量，恒生指數(shù)和上證指數(shù)的靜態(tài)市凈率分別是1.1倍和1.55倍，分別位于16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)指數(shù)估值的倒數(shù)第四和倒數(shù)第一。俄羅斯和韓國(guó)分別排在倒數(shù)第二和倒數(shù)第三。以靜態(tài)市盈率衡量，恒生指數(shù)和上證指數(shù)分別為11.2倍和14.2倍，分別位列16個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)指數(shù)的倒數(shù)第三和倒數(shù)第四。俄羅斯和巴西分別為倒數(shù)第一和倒數(shù)第二。

     貳 7月以來(lái)股市調(diào)整幅度較大

     7月以來(lái)出臺(tái)的一些旨在公平的政策使港股市場(chǎng)發(fā)生較大調(diào)整，海外跟蹤中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的指數(shù)調(diào)整幅度更大一些。美國(guó)金瑞中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)ETF過(guò)去6個(gè)月下跌了45%。它所重倉(cāng)的阿里巴巴下跌了30%，而教培股好未來(lái)和新東方分別下跌90%。有一些很看好中國(guó)的投資人也有些擔(dān)心，這些新出臺(tái)的行業(yè)規(guī)則會(huì)抑制企業(yè)家精神，對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展造成負(fù)面影響。但是，也有一些投資人堅(jiān)定看好中國(guó)，認(rèn)為調(diào)整是買入的機(jī)會(huì)。

      叁  低估值背后

      我們認(rèn)為中國(guó)A股和港股與韓國(guó)和俄羅斯的估值水平相當(dāng)，其實(shí)是外資對(duì)中國(guó)的誤讀。俄羅斯因?yàn)閲?guó)家治理問(wèn)題以及歷史上發(fā)生過(guò)國(guó)債違約事件，國(guó)際投資人一直給予其較低估值。而韓國(guó)因?yàn)榇笃髽I(yè)包括三星等都是家族企業(yè)，公司治理不透明；而且這些大企業(yè)基本都是企業(yè)集團(tuán)，業(yè)務(wù)包羅萬(wàn)象，所以投資人給予較低的估值。中國(guó)完全不同，私營(yíng)企業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)城市中90%的就業(yè)崗位，數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)占中國(guó)GDP比例高達(dá)40%。這意味著中國(guó)不會(huì)無(wú)限制的打壓私營(yíng)企業(yè)和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)。

      肆 中國(guó)的投資機(jī)會(huì)很多

     一些大型國(guó)外基金將中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)到低配，但看好其他行業(yè)的投資機(jī)會(huì)，包括新能源、自動(dòng)駕駛、硬件等。這些企業(yè)通常不是大型企業(yè)，有些甚至很小。他們代表中國(guó)創(chuàng)新的方向，而創(chuàng)新是中國(guó)變強(qiáng)的必由之路。

      伍 市場(chǎng)綜述

      中國(guó)8月的官方制造業(yè)和非制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)均下行，部分原因是受到疫情的影響。A股和港股均探底回升。美股從高位小幅回落。

I. Both A-share and HK stocks were valued at low levels globally

On August 25th, Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index was valued at 1.1x and 1.55x trailing-twelve-months price-to-book value (TTW PB). They were ranked as the last and the 13th among the 16 major indexes in the world, which include major developed nations and developing markets as well as major stock indexes in Asia, Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index was valued at TTW price-to-earnings (PE) of 11.2x and 14.2x respectively and were ranked at 13th and 14th in the 16 major indexes. Russia and South Korea were ranked at the 16th and 15th. 

II. Correction started from July 

China’s stock markets suffered some correction from early July. HK markets were down sharply at one point. Those funds with a focus on China also fell a lot. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF has lost 45% over the last six months, with Alibaba down 30% and tutoring companies such as New Oriental and Tal Education down 90% during this period. In the first two weeks of August about US$3 billion flew out of China, according to EPFR Global. 

III. This might offer a buying opportunity

Some China enthusiasts doubted that the policy aiming at equality might stifle the animal spirits needed to help fuel innovation and keep China’s economy growing. However, others took the opposite opinion and believed that the correction offered a good opportunity of buying. 

IV. China would continue to encourage innovation

China is a different nation from both Russia and South Korea. Russia has been valued at global low levels due to that it ever defaulted on national debts in history and that its national governance. In the case of South Korea, its economy is mainly directed by big conglomerates, which are managed by rich families and lack transparency in terms of corporate governance. China has an economy of US$15 trillion and is home of 1.4 billion people. The private sector contributes 90% of urban employment and digital economy is 40% of GDP. Private economy is encouraged in China and innovation is essential for China to become stronger. Hence, China’s stock markets should enjoy higher valuation. 

V. Market summary

A-share and HK stocks rebounded. China’s official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI in August fell short of expectation.

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