壹 半年報業(yè)績兩級分化
A股上市公司2021年半年報截止8月31日都將發(fā)布完成。截止8月30日，上市公司業(yè)績兩級分化比較嚴(yán)重。周期股包括上游的煤炭、鋼鐵、銅、鋁以及航運股，業(yè)績都大超市場預(yù)期。而舊賽道股包括白酒、醬油、醫(yī)藥等行業(yè)的很多公司盈利都不及預(yù)期。
貳 舊賽道泯然眾人矣
白酒行業(yè)中個別公司的業(yè)績雖然超預(yù)期，但應(yīng)收票據(jù)飆升，顯示盈利質(zhì)量不高。個別公司業(yè)績小幅正增長甚至負(fù)增長，比預(yù)期的差很多。為什么去年的賽道股今年就“泯然眾人矣”？難道這些賽道股不努力嗎？非也。主要原因是投資人對這些賽道股的預(yù)期太高了。
叁 周期無處不在
事實上，任何行業(yè)都存在周期。即使消費行業(yè)這樣一個弱周期行業(yè)也存在明顯的周期。驅(qū)動消費周期的就是居民可支配收入。從2015年以來，我國城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的年增速在8%左右的水平。對消費的承受能力就是由收入水平高低所決定的。因此，一些消費品一直強調(diào)消費升級以及漲價的邏輯也受到這個因素的制約。產(chǎn)品價格漲的太多了超過老百姓的消費能力就意味著遭遇了周期的拐點。
肆 新賽道也會崩盤
新賽道股包括新能源、光伏等行業(yè)的上市公司業(yè)績雖然較好，但是估值已經(jīng)直逼甚至超過舊賽道股高峰時期的估值。雖然業(yè)績增速強勁，但有些公司的股價在業(yè)績發(fā)布后大幅下跌，與1季報發(fā)布時的情況相像。這主要是因為高估值意味著高期望。一旦公司的基本面有一點瑕疵，可能就遭到投資者的拋售。這種情況在芯片、智能AI等熱門賽道股里比較多。
伍 周期可能再度輝煌
周期股業(yè)績超出市場預(yù)期，一方面說明周期股在多年調(diào)整之后進(jìn)入了業(yè)績的上行期，另一方面也反應(yīng)市場對周期股業(yè)績預(yù)期不夠。而市場對周期股業(yè)績預(yù)期不夠主要是因為2008年金融危機以來，周期股沒有給投資人賺過錢，很多投資人在周期股上“折戟沉沙”。但周期股經(jīng)過10多年的產(chǎn)能去化，產(chǎn)能和庫存都去得非常徹底，再度輝煌的時刻可能已經(jīng)到來。
陸 美股連漲7個月
A股成交量創(chuàng)出近期新高，市場分歧加劇。周期股上漲，而券商、家電等板塊下跌。美股周一道指下跌，而標(biāo)普500和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)上漲。三大股指均連漲七個月。因美聯(lián)儲鴿派立場，美國10年期國債收益率下跌，支撐股市尤其是科技股上漲。
I. Divergence of earnings in 1H2021 earnings
All of the listed A-share companies are expected to release their 1H2021 earnings by August 31st,2021. Until now the cyclical stocks’ earnings are above expectation to a great extent. This compared with those hot good-track stocks who were mostly disappointed. The so-called old good-track stocks including those in liquor, soy sauce, medicine and edible oil. These stocks’ 2Q2021 earnings either grew at a mere single digit or declined year-on-year. Some of them delivered decent earnings growth but their account receivables rose significantly, implying that earnings quality was not high.
II. Consumer sector is also subject to economic cycle
Does this mean that these old good-track stocks did not try their best? This is certainly not the case. For these consumption and healthcare stocks they are also subject to economic cycle. Compared with the cyclical stocks their cycles are not that obvious but they do exist. From 2015 till now Chinese urban citizen disposable income per capita grew at around 8% per annum. The consumption upgrade should be based on the growth rate of income. If products’ prices rise more than income, then they would be faced with less volume and slower growth of revenue. When that happens then the consumption stocks are faced with downwards cycle.
III. New good-track stocks
The new good-track stocks including those in photovoltaic and new energy generally delivered strong earnings growth. Yet their valuation is as high as those old good-track stocks at their peak levels or even higher. Some companies’ stock prices fell sharply even with very strong earnings growth in 2Q2021. The reason is that with such high valuation investors’ expectation is high as well. If there are any potential risks associated with fundamentals investors would dump the stocks completely.
IV. Cyclical stocks might come back
As for cyclical stocks they have not made money for investors over the last 10 years. After cutting inventory and capacity for around 10+ years their products are in shortage at the moment of the global economic recovery. These cyclical stocks might come back gloriously.
V. A dovish Fed supports stocks
The US 10-year treasury yield fell as Fed was expected to begin taper before the end of the year. Nasdaq rallied due to the lower treasury yield. A-share and HK stocks were mixed with cyclical stocks rising and home appliance and brokerage sector falling.
聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。
免費咨詢電話：0757-2833-3269 或 131-0659-0746
公司名稱：上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司 HESS Capital, LLC
公司地址：廣東省佛山市順德區(qū)天虹路46號信保廣場南塔808
Copyright 2014-2020 上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司版權(quán)所有
滬ICP備2020029404號-1
