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壹 白酒股的邏輯發生改變

      周四各種茅集中崩盤，崩盤的背后是邏輯的變化。以某著名白酒公司為例，其酒的零售價格今年以來持續上漲，近期已達到3000元每瓶，但股價從2季度開始與持續上漲的酒價背離。這背后就是擔憂老百姓的消費能力不足以支撐這么高的酒價。因此，當周四有媒體報道其批發價調降200元時，其實是契合了市場的擔憂。同時，由于該酒的開瓶率一直較低，意味著很多酒其實并沒有被消費，而是儲存起來了。因此當價格下跌時，這些儲存起來的酒很有可能出現在市場中，加劇價格的下跌。之前上漲的邏輯是酒價持續上漲，由于供給受限，因而需求無法得到有效滿足。下跌的邏輯變成了價格越跌，供應越多。

      貳 醫藥股的邏輯

     而醫藥茅的崩塌也是邏輯發生了變化。以某著名創新藥企業為例。其股價上漲的時候市場認為其管線足以支撐起比當前大幾倍的市值，估值應參照美股輝瑞的市值。但當集采失利后，市場發現創新藥再好，也需要降價進入集采才能獲得較高的市場份額。藥茅下跌的時候開始跟輝瑞比市盈率，發現輝瑞長期以來也就20倍左右的市盈率。

     叁 實質是預期變了

     為什們上漲時一套邏輯而下跌時又一套邏輯呢？無論對于白酒還是醫藥，其實這些所謂的好賽道都存在風險，只不過當市場上漲的時候，投資人要么視而不見，要么就是選擇性的忽略掉這些風險。因此，股價只反應了最樂觀的預期。而當股價下跌時，市場才猛然發現原來風險這么多，而且隨著股價越跌越深，風險不但沒有減少，反而一個又一個新的風險冒出來。其實，也是因為悲觀預期開始后，風險逐漸地被注意到了。所以，投資需要理性判斷，不能過度樂觀也不宜過度悲觀。不過，一般人都很難做到這一點。所以，投資最終就是挑戰自己。

      肆 投資者有可能對經濟增長過于悲觀

     衡量經濟數據是高于預期或者低于預期的程度的花旗意外經濟指數近期達到-37。這是疫情發生以來首次跌入負區間。這主要是因為Delta病毒。市場擔心Delta病毒將加劇通脹，進而影響消費需求。經濟學家對美國經濟2021年的增長預測從6月份的6.5%下調為6%。相應地，由于Delta病毒的沖擊，經濟學家也下調了對中國經濟增速的預期。但好消息是，經濟意外指數已經處在歷史上20%的分位，即80%的時間該指數都高于當前水平。這意味著未來的經濟數據大概率會超預期。周五杰克森年會將在線上舉行，市場關注美聯儲任何關于收縮債券購買計劃的細節。年會前市場情緒謹慎，全球股市普跌。

I. Logic behind the liquor stock

On Thursday good-track stocks fell sharply, reflecting that logic has changed for these stocks. Take the example of a famous spirit stock, its liquor price rose from the beginning of this year to RMB 3000 per bottle recently. Yet its stock prices went south after Chinese New Year festival as market was concerned that consumption volume would become less due to the high liquor price. Moreover, given that many bottles of the liquor are not consumed but stocked for prices increase, they would come into the market with liquor prices coming down. When stock prices rose, the logic is that its supply was limited and liquor prices could rise continuously. And when stock prices fell, more and more supply would come out.

II. An example of a pharmaceutical company

A famous innovative pharmaceutical company was faced with the same dilemma. When its stock price was going up, market expected that its strong pipeline of innovative drugs would support a much bigger market cap if taking Pfizer as valuation benchmark. But after its drugs failed to enter the national centralized purchase list market found that innovative drugs should not be given such a high valuation. Then compared with the 20x price-to-earnings ratio of Pfizer the pharmaceutical company was highly valued. 

III. Expectation has changed

In fact, whether in the case of the liquor company or the pharmaceutical company the risks mentioned above have alwaysbeen there. But when the stock prices are rising market omit them. And when stock prices fell, market began to pay attention to these risks. So when investing it is wise to remain not so optimistic and pessimistic.

IV. Market might be over-concerned about economic growth prospects

Due to Delta variant economists downgraded the US GDP growth rate in 2021 from 6.5% to 6%. China’s GDP growth rate in 2021 was also downgraded by economists. But The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a score that measures the degree to which economic data is beating or missing estimates, has fallen into negative territory for the first time since pandemic. This implies that market might be over-concerned about economic growth prospects. Global markets were cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole annual meeting, which would take place on Friday virtually. 

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