壹 市場機制調節不平等
納西姆·塔勒布在《非對稱風險》一書中談到了不平等現象。他認為不平等可以視作一種尾部的不協調現象,富人位于財富分布的尾部。贏者通吃效應越強,財富就越不平均。他提議引入一種機制,使得最強大的、最富有的人有可能因其承擔的風險過大而垮塌。塔勒布強調發揮市場的力量來應對不平等。但是,如果富人不愿意承擔過大的風險呢?
貳 不平等來自哪里?
法國經濟學家皮凱蒂強調運用政府的力量應對不平等。在《21世紀資本論》中,他指出由于資本的回報率(r)大于經濟的增長率(g),導致現代社會不平等現象的加劇?,F代工業革命并沒有真正改變r和g的關系。在十九世紀,經濟增長率從0%增加到了1%至2%。股票市場的投資回報率也從5%增長到了6%到7%,而資本的長期回報率以工業投資的新形式甚至達到了7%。在二十世紀,只有第一次世界大戰、第二次世界大戰這種非常特殊的事件會導致經濟在戰后迅速增長。在歐洲和日本,增長率在五十年代、六十年代和七十年代都是6%,這就算是一個奇跡了。歷史來看,大多數國家不可能永遠保持5%的增長率。從長遠角度來說,一個國家處于世界科技前沿的時候,生產率的增長率可能在1%到2%。這比投資回報率要低很多。
叁 如何調控?
這并不是說不平等的程度會變得無限大,而是意味著不平等會保持相當一段時間。所以如果r是5%而g是1%,這就意味著擁有大量財富的人只需要用他們資本收入的五分之一去投資,他們就可以繼續享用他們的財富,假如沒有稅的話。在標準的經濟模型里,r總是比g大。在發明與革新飛速增長的同時,不平等也是巨大的,比如第一次工業革命時期和當前。資本家和市場的力量非常強大,需要強大的公共機構去調控和整改這些力量。
肆 股市投資也會產生不平等
在股市里我們運用貼現現金流公式計算一家上市公司的內在價值時,就是假設風險投資回報率(r)高于企業的長期經濟增長率,長期看,公司的增長率其實就是經濟增長率(g)。因此,從這個意義上說,在股市投資其實就是享受高于經濟增速的資本回報率。如何調控這里面的不平等?美國有資本利得稅,我國還沒有征收。隨著國家調控不平等政策的加強,資本利得稅和其他各種稅都會逐漸推出。
伍 市場綜述
周二A股上漲。央行超量續做逆回購500億人民幣,當日到期300億,給市場提供信心。美股標普500和納斯達克續創新高,美國10年期國債收益率上漲到1.325%,接近本月初的高點。
I. To solve inequality with market mechanism
Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote in his book “Hidden asymmetries in daily life” that imparity exists due to the mechanism of winner-take- all. He pointed out that the rich people are at the fat tails of the normal distribution of fortunes. To avoid inequality in a society the government should introduce an arrangement that would push those rick people to shoulder higher risk. The higher risk the rich people shoulder,the higher probability that they would fail and lose their fortune.
II.The roots of inequality
Contrary to Nassim’s idea of allowing market to adjust fortune distribution, Thomas Piketty wrote in his popular book “Capital in the 21st century” that government should bring up with measures to adjust fortune distribution including taxes,duties and etc. He based his arguments on that the capital return rate (r) is higher than economic growth rate (g) in the long term. This is the root that inequality widened in modern society.
III.Government should play its role in dealing with inequality
In the 19th century economic growth rate increased from 0 to 1 or 2%. Yet stock investment return rate increased to 6-7% from 5%. The long-term capital return rate in new technology could be as high as 7%.Economic growth rate was temporarily at a higher rate than capital return rate after the World War I and World War II due to the fast recovery and reconstruction of economy. The inequality widens with innovation becoming faster. The economic growth rate in the long term for those countries at the frontier of technology innovation is 1-2%. Yet capital return can be maintained at 5%. As long as capitalists take 1% of their capital to invest, they can maintain their fortune very easily if without taxes. Capital and market mechanism are very strong. Hence, it is necessary for government to bring up with measures to deal with the issue of inequality. Piketty’s suggestions seem to apply to China’s situation well. More measures on this issue are to be released.
IV. A summary of global stock markets
A-share rallied as the People's Bank of China injected liquidity into the market by renewing more reverse-repo in a larger amount than those due on Tuesday. The US 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.352%. Both SP500 and Nasdaq Index reached record high.
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