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壹 三類投資機(jī)會(huì)
當(dāng)下,市場(chǎng)對(duì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景預(yù)期比較悲觀,但是對(duì)流動(dòng)性預(yù)期又相對(duì)樂(lè)觀。對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的悲觀預(yù)期和對(duì)政策的樂(lè)觀預(yù)期都無(wú)法在短期證實(shí)或證偽。這種情況下,我們認(rèn)為對(duì)A股市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行自下而上的投資可以挖掘出較好的投資機(jī)會(huì)。我們認(rèn)為三類投資機(jī)會(huì)值得關(guān)注。
貳 中小市值個(gè)股票
首先,低估值的中小市值股票。在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行期,中小企業(yè)受沖擊的程度往往要大于大企業(yè)。但是,上市公司的中小企業(yè)一般而言是各細(xì)分行業(yè)的龍頭企業(yè),在下行期往往會(huì)以較強(qiáng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)搶占市場(chǎng)份額,表現(xiàn)出較強(qiáng)的韌性。而反觀當(dāng)前的大企業(yè),也都是在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行期通過(guò)不斷擴(kuò)大市場(chǎng)份額而逐漸成長(zhǎng)為大企業(yè)的。中小市值企業(yè)也符合國(guó)家專精特新的政策導(dǎo)向。其中一些企業(yè)很有可能踏著政策東風(fēng)快速做大。建議在科創(chuàng)板和創(chuàng)業(yè)板中尋找這些公司。當(dāng)然,中小市值的細(xì)分行業(yè)包羅萬(wàn)象,從中選擇出較好的投資標(biāo)的不僅需要花費(fèi)一些時(shí)間和精力,而且需要具備一些行業(yè)背景知識(shí)和對(duì)個(gè)股的判斷能力。
叁 價(jià)值股
其次,是價(jià)值股,包括大金融和地產(chǎn)。我們?cè)?/font>現(xiàn)在可以開(kāi)始和港股做時(shí)間的朋友和你買與不買,價(jià)值都在這里推薦過(guò)這些行業(yè)。這些行業(yè)的估值都處在歷史較低水平。大金融中的券商和銀行的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊俨⒉徊睿kU(xiǎn)雖然遭遇行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題而導(dǎo)致業(yè)績(jī)不佳,但是估值已經(jīng)反應(yīng)了最差情景。銀行和地產(chǎn)都具有高于銀行5年期定期存款利率的股息率。持有這些股票,可以做到慢慢賺錢。
肆 疫情受損股
最后,疫情期間持續(xù)受到?jīng)_擊的行業(yè),包括旅游、航空、餐飲等。這些企業(yè)因?yàn)槭艿揭咔闆_擊,估值一直處在歷史較低水平。隨著疫情緩解,這些股票也會(huì)有較好表現(xiàn)。總之,我們對(duì)A股和港股都保持相對(duì)樂(lè)觀的態(tài)度。盡管3、4季度經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)面臨一些壓力,但是堅(jiān)持投資理念一定會(huì)取得較好收益。
伍 市場(chǎng)綜述
周二A股和港股均上漲。港股科網(wǎng)股大幅上漲,因京東2季度業(yè)績(jī)超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期,同時(shí)騰訊展開(kāi)股票回購(gòu)。國(guó)際投資人也開(kāi)始緩解對(duì)投資中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的擔(dān)憂。美股連續(xù)第三天上漲,三大股指均創(chuàng)出或接近歷史新高。中國(guó)疫情已經(jīng)被良好地控制住,美國(guó)疫情也出現(xiàn)緩解跡象。市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不再悲觀,轉(zhuǎn)而關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在杰克森年會(huì)上會(huì)釋放關(guān)于削減債券購(gòu)買的任何細(xì)節(jié)。值得注意的是,即使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮減債券購(gòu)買,美國(guó)市場(chǎng)在未來(lái)一年仍有可能獲得1萬(wàn)億美金的超額流動(dòng)性。
I.Investment opportunities in A-share.
Market worries about the slowdown of economy in 3Q and 4Q this year but is optimistic about the likely easing policy measures. It is hard to prove that economy would slow down dramatically and that easing policy would come any time soon. Hence, at this point it might be wise to pick stocks that with solid fundamentals and low valuation. In A-share we recommend three types of opportunities.
II. Small- to mid-sized market cap stocks
The first is small-to mid-sized market cap stocks. Small and mid-sized companies usually perform worse than bigger ones when economy slows down. However, for those listed companies they are often market leaders in niche markets and can gain more market share when demands dwindles. Moreover, these companies would be encouraged by the recent policies of encouraging “Specialized,Fined, Peculiar and Innovative Little Giants. We believe that in STAR Board and Chinext Board there are companies that have good investment values.
III. Deep value
The second is the deep value stocks including financials and property. Both banks and brokerage sector grew their earnings strongly. And banks and property sector offer attractive dividend yield, which is much higher than 5-year time deposit rate. Also their valuation is at years’ low levels.
IV. Pandemic-affected sectors
The last group is those sectors that suffer from the pandemic including airlines, catering and travelling,whose valuation is at historical low levels. With Delta variant well-controlled,they are set to perform. In summary we are optimistic about the investment prospects in both A-share and HK market. The roads ahead are bumpy but they would lead you to good return.
V. A summary of global stock market
Global stocks continued rally. HK tech stocks rallied as JD 2Q2021 earnings came in better than expected. Also international investors understood that the recent measures brought up by Chinese government do not hurt listed tech giant as seriously as previously thought. Moreover, both China and the US are showing signs that Delta variant is well controlled, boosting optimism about global economy. The US stocks are at record levels after three-day rise in a row. Market is paying attention to any details of tapering from the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual meeting.
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