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 壹 投資價值四要素

      在《大錢細思》一書，喬爾·帝林哈斯特指出：影響投資價值的主要有四個要素，即盈利能力、生命周期、成長性和確定性。他指出，從宏觀層面看，利潤豐厚的公司，在經營確定性較強的情況下，行業的周期性越弱，存活的時間越長。成長性也非常重要，歷史上許多公司在缺少盈利驅動后，價值都歸為零。他認為：除了規模較小的非耐用消費品行業，大部分公司很難兼具確定性和成長性。

       貳 將不安全邊際最小化

      他同時認為巴菲特是將“不安全邊際”最小化以應對不確定性。如果你將不要賠錢的投資原則放在第一位，那么減少不安全邊際就是你需要重點考慮的事情。發掘價值首先要辨別公司的盈利能力。如果篩選的公司盈利能力強，則要看這種盈利能力能夠持續多久。不同行業情況是完全不同的。如果一家公司沒有替代品，也沒有競爭者，那么它往往可以獲得較高回報。像自然壟斷型的公司包括電力和燃氣等，但這些公司的產品價格通常會受到政府管制。這些公用事業公司的生存和業務確定性要高于追求高利潤。

       叁 消費品公司和高科技公司

       品牌消費品公司在過去半個世紀的利潤率要高于其他任何行業。具備上述提及的四個要素中的三個，即盈利能力、生命周期和確定性，但成長性往往不足。高科技公司一般是盈利能力強、成長性高，但是他們一般生命周期短，同時面臨較大不確定性，包括是否被新的技術取代。在變化迅速的行業，公司只有通過不斷創新才能生存下來。他最后指出：投資是具有挑戰性的活動，在過程中投資者需要避免不切實際的期望。

       肆  看看A股市場

       喬爾所說的這些判斷投資價值的標準同樣適用于A股。結合估值來看，A股市場那些盈利能力高、生命周期處在朝陽階段，短期成長性和確定性都很強的公司估值都較高。而對于那些走下坡路的行業，估值很低，因為成長性不足。但是，A股市場一個比較矛盾的現象是：盈利確定性高的行業估值太高，而成長性不足的行業估值又太低。如果這些盈利確定性高的行業或者公司的盈利一旦低于預期，公司股價就會遭受較大打擊；而成長性不足的公司一旦業績增速提升，則會有估值的提升。

      伍 市場綜述

      周一A股和港股均上漲。騰訊展開回購，港股科網股大幅上漲。A股軍工股和周期股漲幅居前。美股全面上漲，納斯達克指數創出歷史新高。因美國FDA批準輝瑞的兩劑疫苗，疫苗股、經濟復蘇股和周期股大幅上漲。

I. How to find investment values? 

In his popular book “Big money thinks small” Joel Tillinghast pointed out that from macro point of view one should observe four aspects to find investment values. These include profitability, business cycle, growth and certainty. He further pointed out that for those companies with high profitability the ups-and-downs would become smaller if they can maintain high profitability with a high certainty. Apart from some small non-durable consumer goods companies most companies can’t have both growth and certainties. 

II. To decrease uncertainty of safety margin

Warren Buffett tried to decrease uncertainty of safety margin to the least by buying stocks at a big discount. If an investor puts principal safety as the top priority, then he or she should consider how to decrease uncertainty of safety margin. 

III. Utilities, consumers and high-tech companies

The first thing to find value is to see whether the company can make a profit. If a company can earn a lot of money, then it is necessary to see whether it can sustain this profitability for a long time. The situation differs from sectors. If a company does not have competitors then it can earn a lot of money. Utilities company usually are in this situation. Yet their products prices are regulated. This means that their earnings’ certainty is higher than profitability. Consumer stables have higher profitability, less volatility and certainty. Yet their growth isusually low. High-tech companies have high growth rate and high profitability.But their certainty is usually low and often faced with big volatility. In a fast-changing world, high-tech companies are often substituted by new technologies. 

IV. What happened and will happen in A-share 

What Joel mentioned also apply to A-share. However, in A-share there is a conflict. For those companies with high profitability and certainty their valuation is at extremely high levels. Yet for those companies with low profitability their valuation is at extremely low levels. This could change dramatically if high profitability companies deliver less earnings than expected or low profitability companies deliver earnings higher than expected.

V. A summary of global markets 

Global markets rallied. Tencent announced share buyback. FDA approved twodoses of vaccine of Pfizer, boosting vaccine stocks in the US.

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