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壹 抱團股再次崩塌

      上周抱團股的崩塌再次讓投資人損失慘重。今年以來A股市場抱團股屢次大幅調整。春節之后因為美債收益率上升以及央行收緊流動性導致估值高企的抱團股發生大跌。此次調整在3月中旬趨于緩和，之后抱團股重拾上漲態勢，同時新能源和光伏賽道崛起，資金再次緊密抱團新賽道。6月底、7月初以來，隨著政府對一些互聯網企業的管控加強，A股開啟第二波調整。首當其沖的還是抱團股。截止2021年8月20日，貴州茅臺從6月初的高點下跌了33.6%，從2月春節之后的高點下跌了41%。其他抱團股也有較大幅度的調整。持有這些抱團股的基金凈值也有較大回撤。我們之前曾經多次提示抱團股其實并沒有投資價值，因為其估值已經完全反應了所有的利好。股價的方向只能是下跌，而不是上漲。

       貳 抱團股仍面臨風險

      當前市場上很多熱門板塊都存在估值高的問題。雖然持有這些板塊的基金短期賺錢了，業績也不錯，但其實隱含著很大的風險。一方面，政策信號已經很明確，賺錢要公平。以壟斷地位賺錢未來可能會面臨政策的打壓。而很多抱團股之所以享受高估值，一個主要原因就是市場給予的壟斷估值溢價。另一方面，隨著美國逐漸收緊流動性，這些成長股的估值也會面臨壓力。同時，中國經濟增速在2季度達到同比高點之后，在3、4季度將會逐季走低。這些對企業盈利也會造成壓力。而央行可能在美聯儲收緊流動性的過程中也會保持克制，避免造成人民幣的過大波動。這也意味著不能指望國內流動性的放松很快到來，高估值股票因此面臨較大風險。

       叁 投資要賺業績提升的錢

       要想在今年規避這種虧損，其實是需要投資人想清楚投資要賺什么錢：是賺估值提升的錢，還是業績提升的錢。估值提升需要流動性的配合，而業績提升就是要尋找基本面優秀的企業。作為專業投資人士，尋找基本面優秀的企業從而賺取業績提升的錢才是其價值所在。以資金優勢抬升企業估值，即使短期股價上漲了，長期看也是不可能持續的。白酒醫藥等抱團股去年和今年的截然相反表現很好的詮釋了這一點。對于今年新的抱團股投資人也要小心，以避免重蹈覆轍。

        肆 市場綜述

       上周全球指數普跌。港股恒生指數在全球16個主要國家和地區指數中跌幅最大，5.84%；其次法國CAC40指數、臺灣指數和深成指，分別下跌3.91%、3.77%和3.68%。上證指數2.53%，下跌幅度居中。關注美聯儲在下周的杰克森年會上是否就削減債券購買表態。

I. Group-holding stocks tumbled again

Last week group-holding stocks tumbled again, which happened several times this year. The first is after Chinese New Year festival. Due to thefast-rising treasury yield in the US and that the People’s bank of China withdrawing liquidity, group-holding stocks fell sharply until mid-March. Then from late June and early July due to that government brought measures to crack down internet sector and tutoring sector, group-holding stocks fell again.  Until last Friday Kweichow Moutai fell 33.6%from its high in early June and 41% from its high in mid-Feb. 

II. To earn money from companies' earnings growth

The fall of group-holding stocks has created big losses for those funds holding them. To avoid such big losses,one needs to think clearly what money he or she should earn in investment, i.e.,to earn money from valuation improvement or from earnings growth. To earn money from valuation improvement it requires liquidity improvement. While to earn money from earnings growth it requires to find good companies. As professional investor it should be his or her duty to find good companies that can deliver strong earnings growth. In this way the professional investors can add value to those who trust them with money to manage. It is not sustainable to earn money from liquidity improvement. The sharp contrast of group-holding stocks' performance this year and last year illustrates this point well. New group-holding stocks in new energy and chip sector emerged in A-share from mid-March. These stocks might repeat what happened to liquor sector.

III. A summary of global markets last week

Hang Seng Index fell 5.89% last week and the worst-performing index among the 16 global major indexes. Shenzhen Composite Index fell 3.68%,the fourth worst-performing index globally. Global central banks will convene online for Jackson Hole annual meeting this week. Market is paying attention to whether the Federal Reserve chairman Powell would disclose any details on taper.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。