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市場在告訴我們什么？周二A股和港股均泥沙俱下。A股28個行業全部下跌，但是低估值板塊跌幅較少，包括房地產、建筑材料和交通運輸跌幅在0.2-0.4%。而高估值板塊包括休閑服務、食品飲料和醫藥生物跌幅在3.6-4.8%。港股12個行業均下跌，其中跌幅較少的是金融和綜合業，跌幅較大的是科技和原材料行業。市場對周二的下跌有各種猜測，其一是央行周二在7000億中期便利借貸到期后只續作了6000億，外加100億的逆回購。這說明央行在7月15日的降準只是置換到期的中期借貸便利，并不是寬松的開始。這與市場預期的貨幣寬松有所不同，疊加周一發布的經濟數據全面低于預期，市場因此大跌。當然中美關系以及媒體報道的嚴查市場黑嘴等消息也對市場構成沖擊。但是這些就是市場大跌的理由嗎？我們認為根本原因還是一些板塊和個股缺乏安全邊際。所謂安全邊際，就是買入的股票價格要與其內在價值有一定的差值，這個差值就是安全邊際。安全邊際大，所能承受的股價下跌的風險也較大。所謂內在價值，根據《證券分析》一書的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆，通常由資產、收益和股息等事實和可以確定的前景決定的，也即由企業的發展前景以及其所能創造的收益和股息率所決定。格雷厄姆其實在20世紀20年代的早期就開始提倡內在價值和安全邊際的理念。由于未來充滿變數，因此投資者是自身對抗未來的不確定性，因此應該以低于內在價值的成本進行投資。內在價值這一理念發展到現在，投資人將企業在可預見的未來所能創造的自由現金流作為確定內在價值的依據。高估值板塊的企業未來所能創造的自由現金流折現在是否能夠超過當前股價存在較大不確定性。這意味著這些股票的安全邊際很低或者是沒有的。因此，在面對未來經濟存在下行壓力可能會造成企業盈利下行而政策又不能如預期及時出手的情況下，高估值板塊的下跌雖是意料之外，卻也在情理之中。投資要投的是具有較高安全邊際的股票。否則，就是投機或者是賭運氣。

美股下跌。7月零售數據環比增速下降1.1%，市場預期下跌0.3%。Delta病毒對美國經濟的負面影響逐漸體現。美元指數創出今年以來的新高，達到93.144，據3月底的高點93.286僅一步之遙。美元指數上漲帶動大宗商品價格全線下跌。

What does the market tell us? Both A-share and HK stocks tumbled on Tuesday. In A-share leisure service, food and beverage and medicine and healthcare sector fell the most at 3.6-4.8% while property, construction material and transportation fell the least at 0.2-0.4%. In general, those high-valued stocks fell more than thelow-valued ones. Some investors owed the sharp drop of stocks to that the People’sBank of China renewed Medium-term Lending Facility at a smaller amount than that due on Tuesday. This together with the lower-than-expected economic data in July crushed the stock market. Others thought that geopolitical tensions made investors decrease their risk preference. Yet the root could be that these stocks lack safety margin. Safety margin is a concept that was brought up by Benjamin Graham in the early 1920’s. Benjamin Graham is famous for his book “Security Analysis” and being the tutor for the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Graham believed that stock investors were faced with great uncertainties and should buy a stock at a price that should be lower than intrinsic value of the stock,which is determined by the growth prospects of the company. Nowadays intrinsic value refers to the discounted free cash flow that a company can create in a foreseeable future. The stock prices of those high-valued might be a little lower or even higher than their intrinsic value. Hence,when the economy might slow down and policies might not be brought up timely these stocks would be faced with earnings slowdown and valuation contraction. Investing in a stock with a high margin of safety is the right way to invest. Otherwise,it is speculation.

The US stocks fell sharply. Retail sales in July fell1.1% month-on-month, higher than 0.3% expected. Delta variant was negatively impacting the US economic recovery. The US dollar index reached above 93 and wasonly one step away from the high reached at the end of March. Commodity prices fell across the board. Investors are concerned that Delta variant would weigh heavily on the economy.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。