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這個夏天有點涼。7月份的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)全面低于預(yù)期。工業(yè)增加值和社會消費(fèi)品零售總額同比增速分別為6.4%和8.5%，預(yù)期為7.9%和11.6%。1-7月固定資產(chǎn)投資累計同比增速為10.3%，預(yù)期為11.4%；出口同比增速為19.3%，預(yù)期為20.8%。同時，對比6月份，所有數(shù)據(jù)呈現(xiàn)下滑態(tài)勢。六月份上述四個數(shù)據(jù)分別為8.3%、12.1%、12.6%和32.2%。之前發(fā)布的采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)和社融增速均指向7月經(jīng)濟(jì)會回落。但是，回落幅度超出市場預(yù)期。這一方面與Delta病毒和水災(zāi)有緊密關(guān)系。另一方面，對教培行業(yè)的打擊也對消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生不利影響。自教培新規(guī)出臺后，不斷有教培機(jī)構(gòu)倒閉、裁員的報道。教培行業(yè)有1000萬從業(yè)人員，該行業(yè)還帶動商業(yè)租賃、餐飲娛樂等上下游行業(yè)。因此，對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響不容小覷。7月數(shù)據(jù)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)增速已處在快速下滑中，未來能否盡早企穩(wěn)一方面取決于疫情的控制程度以及災(zāi)后重建力度，另一方面，取決于支持性政策何時出臺。周一，國常會開會討論經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，提出要加強(qiáng)跨周期調(diào)節(jié)，保持經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行在合理區(qū)間。據(jù)媒體報道，本周地方債發(fā)行將達(dá)到3700億人民幣，創(chuàng)下今年周度發(fā)行的高峰。這些地方債將會促進(jìn)今年下半年和明年年初的基建投資。同時，6月份的貸款加權(quán)平均利率也在歷史上首次下跌到5%以下，達(dá)到4.93%，顯示寬信用就在路上。未來財政政策和貨幣政策將變得更加積極，從而對經(jīng)濟(jì)和股市提供支撐。8月13日晚公布數(shù)據(jù)顯示美國8月密歇根大學(xué)消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)初值錄得70.2，據(jù)較7月份下降了13.5%，僅有的兩次更大降幅發(fā)生在2020年4月經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)閉期間(-19.4%)和2008年10月大衰退最嚴(yán)重時期(-18.1%)。8月份信心指數(shù)大幅下滑主要因為美國消費(fèi)者擔(dān)憂疫情對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長形成擾動。消費(fèi)占美國GDP80%左右，因此美國經(jīng)濟(jì)未來也將面臨下行風(fēng)險。Delta病毒讓全球同此涼熱。

周一A股和港股表現(xiàn)疲弱。因經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期，有色金屬板塊在A股和港股均跌幅居前。港股科技板塊跌幅也較大，騰訊、美團(tuán)等大型科網(wǎng)股再次大幅下跌。有媒體報道對大型科網(wǎng)股的所得稅優(yōu)惠已取消。美股道指和標(biāo)普500再創(chuàng)新高，國債收益率下降。截止周一，標(biāo)普500已經(jīng)從2020年3月23日的最低點上漲了一倍。得益于貨幣和財政政策支持，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)下二戰(zhàn)后最快速的復(fù)蘇。

The economy is cooling down due to Delta variant worldwide. China’s economic data in July came in much lower than expected.Industrial value-added and retail sales in July rose 6.4% and 8.5% year-on-year(yoy) respectively versus 7.9% and 11.6% expected. Fixed asset investment fromJan. to July rose 10.3% yoy versus 11.4% expected. Export grew 19.3% yoy versus 20.3% expected. Also compared with June economic data slowed down across the board. The slowdown was both due to the pandemic and flood in some parts of China. Moreover, new regulations on after-school tutoring also impacted consumption.It is estimated that 10 million people work in after-school tutoring sector.The upstream of tutoring sector is commercial real estate and downstream is catering and other related service sector. After the new regulations came out in July, some training companies went bankruptcy or cut off employment. This would work against overall consumption. When the economy would stabilize depends on when the pandemic can be well-controlled as well as the reconstruction of flooded area. It also depends on whether supporting policy measures can come out timely. It was reported that composite loan interest rate came down to historical low in June to 4.93%. This signals that the easing credit might be right on the way. In addition, special purpose debt issued by local government this week would reach the highest weekly level in 2021. Special purpose debt would support infrastructure investment in 2H2021 and early 2022. We believe these policies would also support stock markets. Due to Delta variant Michigan consumer confidence index in August came down to 70.2, one of the largest monthly drop in history. As consumption makes up 80% of the US GDP, the US economy would also face headwind from the fast spread of Delta variant.

Both A-share and HK market corrected. Due to the weaker-than-expected economic data raw material sector fell sharply. DOW and SP500 rose while Nasdaq fell slightly. Until Monday SP500 doubled from its low on March 23rd,2020. 

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