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港股7月跌幅巨大。港股2021年7月份的下跌是創紀錄的。恒生指數和恒生國企指數的跌幅分別為9.9%和13.4%，分別創出2018年10月和2016年1月以來最大月度幅。恒生科技指數當月下跌16.85%，創下該指數自去年7月推出以來的最大月度跌幅。2019年到2020年，港股一方面遭遇了史無前例的社會動蕩，另一方面，疫情對香港經濟雪上加霜。港股在此期間全球表現落后，2020年大幅跑輸A股。2021年初，港股的低估值吸引了國內投資者紛紛南下。但隨著春節過后，A股抱團股的大幅下跌以及港府加征印花稅，港股再度陷入萎靡。而7月以來政府推出的一系列旨在營造公平社會環境的舉措對港股的互聯網和教育板塊造成重大利空。港股可謂一瀉千里。而南下資金也創出了自開通以來連續數日凈流出的記錄。當前，無論恒生指數還是國企指數估值都處在歷史較低水平。恒生指數的靜態市凈率7月底估值為1.14倍，處在2002年以來18.3%的分位。國企指數的靜態市凈率為1.2倍，為2002年以來的39.4%的分位。我們認為中國3、4季度經濟下行對港股市場仍會有一定的壓力，但是另一方面，國內的寬松財政和貨幣政策也會對市場提供支撐。當下在港股市場可以買什么呢？我們總結了三類可投資的標的：一是價值股，包括銀行地產，估值很低，股息率很高，下行風險小；二是制造業成長股，包括新能源、電子及傳統制造業的龍頭企業，他們中很多具有全球競爭力；三是消費醫藥長線股，消費中的部分板塊競爭格局明確，醫藥中的一些創新藥也被證明具有較強競爭力，可以在估值合理的情況下買入并長期持有。國際投資人近期因政策風險而采取觀望態度，但一旦確定中國基本的開放政策不變，政策風險降低后就應該回來。港股市場因受到政治經濟等諸多因素的影響，短期獲得投資收益概率不大。最好的辦法就是在低位買進，比如當前時點，然后做時間的朋友。當然，這非?？简炌顿Y者的耐心。

上周全球股市漲跌不一。中國臺灣和韓國跌幅居前，而印度、俄羅斯和上證指數漲幅居前。美國國債收益率在Taper預期推動下上升，全球股市成長股回落，價值和周期股上漲。

How to pick stocks in HK market？HK market crashed in July. Hang Seng Index tumbled 9.9% and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 13.6%, the worst month of performance from Oct. 2018 and Jan. 2016 respectively. Hang Seng Index is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-book (TTW PB) 1.1x while China Enterprises Index is valued at TTW PB 1.2x, which is at 18% and 39% percentile from 2002 respectively. HK market performance was poor due to political turmoil in 2019 and COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In 2021 it enjoyed a short period of rally as south-bound capital flushed in due to its low valuation. But this did not last long as after Chinese New Year festival group-holding stocks fell sharply in A-share and HK market also suffered. Big tech stocks in HK were group-holding stocks as well. Then HK government announced that it would raise stamp duty for stock trading at the end of February. HK market tumbled and then bounced up and down until July when policies targeted at after-school tutoring and big tech firms were brought up. HK market would get support in 3Q and 4Q2021 as China’s monetary and fiscal policy would become more accommodative. The current valuation has partly priced in the slowdown of China’s economy. We suggest three ways to invest in HK market. The first is to invest in those value stocks in financial and property sector. Stocks in these sectors do not deliver very strong earnings growth yet offer sizeable dividend yields. The second is to invest in those leading players in new energy, electronic and traditional manufacturing sector. Some companies in these sectors enjoy competitive advantages in the world. The last but not the least is to invest in consumption and healthcare sector. Competitive landscape is beneficial for market leaders in these sectors. In short now it might be a good time to buy HK stocks and be a friend of time.

Last week both A-share and HK market rebounded. The US 10-year treasury yield went up pushed by Taper expectation. Growth stocks fell while value and cyclical stocks rose worldwide.

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