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別人家的股市。今年美股標普500、道指和納斯達克指數上漲幅度分別為18.4%、15.9%和14.6%，位列全球16個主要國家和地區股市(包括主要發達和發展中國家以及亞洲主要市場)漲幅榜的第3、第5和第9名。美股迭創新高，主要原因是企業盈利強勁以及流動性充裕。90%的美股上市公司發布了2季度，其中88%的企業盈利增速超預期。2季度總體上市公司盈利增速有望同比上漲92.9%。美股雖迭創新高，但卻不如法國股市。法國CAC40指數年初至今上漲23.5%，是全球表現最好的股指。法國股市可以看成一個奢侈品股市。路易威登和愛馬仕是主要成分股，年初至今股價分別上漲了38%和55%。路易威登和愛馬仕包包今年以來漲價不斷。奢侈品價格上漲，一方面是因為流動性充裕。歐央行在7月議息會議上修改了利率前瞻指引，啟用“對稱性”通脹目標，允許通脹在過渡期內略高于2%。歐央行行長拉加德強調會吸取歐債危機的教訓，不會過早收緊貨幣政策。歐央行的“對稱性”目標主要基于歷史數據，這使得歐央行面對短期通脹超調可以有充足的理由維持寬松，在操作空間上更加靈活。充裕流動性下，消費者手中現金充足，奢侈品購買需求旺盛。另一方面受到疫情影響，奢侈品原料供應、人工等都不足，導致供應受限。在此情況下，奢侈品價格一路上漲，推動法國股市遙遙領先全球其他國家和地區股市。看完別人家的股市，回到我國的資本市場。年初以來，恒生指數下跌2.6%，是全球主要國家和地區中唯一下跌的股市；而深成指和上證指數分別上漲3% 和1.5%，分別位于全球16個主要國家和地區股市漲幅榜的第12和15名。A股和港股表現落后于全球其他主要國家和地區指數，一是因為中國流動性收緊早于發達國家。去年10月份貨幣供應量增速就已經拐頭向下。另一方面，我國經濟景氣指標在今年3月份達到頂點，經濟開始下行。港股市場因近期遭到政策沖擊而調整。但未來A股和港股應有機會。剛發布的7月份貨幣供應量雖低于預期，但貨幣政策應不會更緊，而財政政策也將積極起來。所以，對自己家的股市也不應過分悲觀。

A股和港股下跌。主要受周三公布的社融數據不及預期影響。美股上漲，7月生產者價格指數同比漲幅7.8%，為2010年以來最高水平。

Other people’s stock markets. Year-to-date the US stock market reached one record high after another, supported by strong earnings growth and abundant liquidity.Listed companies are expected to deliver 92.9% year-on-year earnings growth in 2nd quarter 2021. Year-to-date SP500, DOW and Nasdaq rose 18.4%, 15.9% and 14.6% respectively. Among the 16 global major indexes they were ranked at the third,fifth and ninth in terms of gains. Yet the best performing market is CAC40 of France.It rose 23.5% year-to-date, boosted by luxury brands including LVMH and Hermes.LVMH and Hermes saw their stock price rise 38% and 55%. Their bags’ prices increased quite a lot in 2021. On one hand liquidity is abundant. The European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a dovish tone in its monetary policy meeting in July. Lagarde, the chairwoman of the bank, said that ECB would not make the same mistake in Euro-debt crises in 2011, when it withdrew supporting policies earlier and caused the European economy to dip again. Consumers have a lot of money on hands due to the easy monetary policy, boosting demand for luxury goods.On the other hand due to the pandemic both raw materials and labor were in shortage. The supply is hence limited. As a result, luxury brands raised their product prices this year again and again. As a comparison, Hang Seng Index fell 2.6% year-to-date and was the only stock index that fell among the 16 global indexes.Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index rose 3% and 1.5% respectively,ranked at 13th and 15th among the 16 indexes. That both A-share and HK stock market lagged behind major indexes in the world is mainly because China took back liquidity earlier than any other country in the world. Money supply witnessed turning point in last October. And economy peaked out in March 2021 as seen from business climate index. However, both monetary and fiscal policy would become more proactive to deal with the falling economy. Investors should become optimistic about the stock market.

The US stocks rose again. July PPI in the US came in higher than expected. 

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