投資和投機。投資和投機本質的區別其實并不大。有人認為持有時間短的就是投機，持有時間長的是投資。似乎是專門針對這個不太明顯的區別，A股市場有一個詞叫做價值投機，就是指雖然是長時間持有股票，但卻是在股價泡沫中的堅持持有。投機其實是一個中性詞，在英文中的對應詞匯“speculation”沒有任何貶義。那為什么在國內明明是投機，偏要說成是投資呢。一方面，國內的投機有貶義含義；另一方面，投資更像是一個高大上的事業，而投機更像是散戶就可以做的事情。對機構投資者來說，跟散戶一樣投機至少顯得水平不太高。所以，經常能看到買了幾百倍市盈率股票的基金經理大談價值投資，其實所談的跟價值投資一點關系也沒有。價值投資兩個基本要素：一個是堅實的基本面，一個是低估值。趨勢易尋，但基本面好且估值又便宜的股票不好找。但對于堅持價值投資的基金經理，本職工作就是尋找這些股票。彼得·林奇在富達工作13年，13年如一日，從早到晚大量閱讀各種研究報告、公司的定期報告，就是為了找到這樣的股票。查理·芒格說過投資從來都不是容易的。避難趨易也是人之常情。買高估值股票的基金經理其實本質上是趨勢投資者，或者說是價值投機的踐行者。基金經理在解釋時會說對公司基本面有信仰，可以看得很遠，至于是10年后還是30年后都不重要。重要的是當前估值雖然很高，但還能上漲，能為投資人賺錢；重要的是客戶很滿意。如果堅持了價值投資，但賺不到錢，那就很難向客戶交代了。最近客戶恨不得按手買入、建議抄作業的報道流傳甚廣。A股市場作為一個趨勢市場，投機賺錢相對容易。能夠幫助客戶賺錢的投機有什么不好嗎？當然沒有。靠投機賺錢的李默弗爾曾經威震華爾街，只要及時收手就好。
A股漲跌不一。上證指數上漲，而創業板指下跌。因恒大債務問題得以解決，A股和港股房地產板塊大幅上漲。美股道指和標普500再創新高，7月消費者價格指數同比上漲5.4%，高于預期的5.3%，但除去食品和能源的核心消費者價格指數環比6月份只上漲了0.3%，預期為0.4%。二手車價格只上漲了0.2%，而6月份上漲了10%。意味著通脹很可能就是暫時的，聯儲在收縮流動性上并沒有落后于通脹。
About investment and speculation. There is no stark difference between investment and speculation.Some deems that investment means a longer holding period while speculation means a rather short holding period. A new word invented in A-share, which seems to counter this difference. It is called investment speculation, which refers to those investors who hold stocks for a long time but in bubbles. Value investment requires two factors: one is solid fundamental, the other is low valuation. Some think that it is challenging to find companies with solid fundamental and low valuation. For a portfolio manager it is his or her job to do this. Peter Lynch,the famous investor, read companies’ quarterly reports and annual reports as well as analysts’ research notes day by day for 13 years when he worked at Fidelity. Investment is never easy, as Charlie Munger said. It is also natural for a portfolio manager to seek the easy way to do investment, such as following the trend. In A-share it actually is easier to make money by following trends.The portfolio manager can still talk about value investment despite high valuation. Their excuse is that they have a firm belief in the company’s fundamentals and can hold the stock for a long time. Whether the stock’s valuation can come down in 3 years or 10 years is not that important. The most important is that they can help clients make money. Livermore in “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” made a lot of money for clients. This means that speculation is just a tool for making money. If he could stop losses earlier the results would be good.
A-share was mixed on Wednesday. Shanghai Composite Index rose while Chinext Index fell. It was reported that government is helping China Evergrande Group to relieve its debt burden. This news boosted property stocks in both A-share and HK market. The US July CPI grew 5.4% year-on-year, higher than 5.3% expected. Yet core CPI, which excluded food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month versus 0.4% expected. The used vehicle price, which rose 10% in June, only rose 0.2% in July. This supports Fed’s view that inflation is transitory.
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