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時代變了。1958年夏天，美國長期國債收益率首次明顯超過了普通股的股息收益率。根據歷史經驗，股票收益率接近債券收益率的時候，通常市場將大幅下跌。1891年、1907年和1929年的股市崩盤都證實了這一點。因此，投資人視股票的長期股息收益率高于債券收益率為天經地義的事情，因為股票的風險高于債券，因此股票的股息收益率也應該高于債券的收益率。一旦股票的價格過高使得股息收益率低于債券收益率，拋售股票的時機就到了。但是這次股票的表現并未如預期那樣大幅下跌。反而在股票收益率跌至債券收益率下方之后的12個月，股市一路飆升，并且一直上漲到20世紀60年代初。估值指標失靈了的根本原因是股票能夠對沖通貨膨脹，而債券則沒有這個功能。60多年前發生的事情讓人警醒：當時代變化的時候，原有的規則就全都不適用了。如果還墨守成規，就會錯失好的投資機會，并很有可能遭受投資損失。今天在股票市場中，也有很多改變在發生，有很多都是歷史性的。比如中美的消費者價格指數之差是歷史高點，比如今年發達國家的經濟增速和通貨膨脹率都可能是40年來最高的水平，比如百年未有之大變局下的經濟、社會、國際地緣政治關系等方方面面的改變。作為投資人，我們要時刻警醒自己，因為一句“大人，時代變了”就可能把我們之前堅信的完全顛倒過來，使“風口”變成“刀口”，使投資造成重大損失。投資要勇立潮頭，需要不斷的學習和思考，需要積極發現時代變遷中的各種機會和風險，需要迅速的調整和改變思維方式。

A股和港股上漲。白酒板塊大幅上漲，市場預期中秋白酒消費保持平穩。港股科技指數大幅上漲，美團和騰訊分別上漲8%和5%以上。新能源板塊大幅調整，鹽湖股份復牌上漲300%以上，分流了該板塊的資金。美參議院通過1萬億美元的基建法案，在卡特彼勒的上漲推動下道指和標普創出新高。國債收益率上漲，FAANG股票下跌推動納指下跌。世衛組織專家認為新冠疫情遠沒有到結束的時候。全球15%的人口接種了新冠疫苗。只有世界上所有國家都接種疫苗，新的毒株才不會出現。Delta病毒具有來的快、去的也快的特征，從印度和英國的情況看新增病例數都呈倒V字型。

It would be different times. In summer of 1958 the dividend yield of stocks was higher than bond yield. This provoked market concerns. According to what happened previously every time when stock yield was higher than bond’s yield the stock market would crash as seen in 1891, 1907 and 1929. The reason was because stocks were riskier than bonds they should offer higher yield. But this time things changed. Twelve months after the stock yield came in lower than bond yield stock began to rise until the early of 1960’s. This is because stock is a good tool to defend inflation while bond does not have this function. What happened 60 years ago sounds alarm for investors. When times turns to a new page, the previous rules do not work at all. Investors should change their mindset quickly to adjust to the new world. Otherwise, they might miss good investment opportunities or even make big losses. Nowadays there are a lot of things changing. For example: the divergence between China and the US CPI year-on-year growth rate in July could reach the largest ever. The inflation and GDP growth rate in the developed nations could be the highest in 40 years.Also there are a lot of things changed whether in domestic economy, society and the internaitonal geopolitics as the world is experiencing the changes never happened in a century. Investors should remain alert and humble to the market and try to find opportunities in a changing world.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Liquor sector rallied.Yet north-bound capital was net outflow in liquor sector. New energy sector fell due to that Qinghai Salt Lake resumed trading and absorbed capital from other stocks in the sector. Tech stocks rebounded strongly in HK market with Meituan and Tencent rising 8% and 5% respectively.  Senate passed US$ 1 trillion infrastructure bill. Caterpillar rose and pushed DOW and SP500 to record high. The 10-year treasury yield rose and FAANG stocks fell across the board. An expert from WHO said that COVID-19 pandemic was closer to the beginning than to the ending. 15% of world population got vaccinated so far. The new variant would not emerge only when all of the 200+ countries in the world get vaccinated.

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