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群體心理。勒龐在其著名的《烏合之眾》中闡述了群體的特點，其中有一些對股票投資也適用，包括群體是缺乏理性的，群體的智商低于個人的智商，感情主導群體的方向等。A股市場的極致割裂其實在很大程度上也是群體意識主導的。某些板塊的高估值和過熱顯而易見，但是資金仍然不斷的追捧這些板塊，其實不是基于基本面，而是真正的無腦買入。當前，無論是看好的板塊還是不看好的板塊，市場預期都驚人的一致。反應在估值上就是看好的板塊估值需要看得更遠，幾十年后的估值能提供支撐也可以；不看好的板塊，股息率也高到不可思議的水平，反應了市場對這些板塊的徹底拋棄。投資股票應該基于理性，隨大流買入熱門股也許能夠短時間賺到錢，但如果這些股票被拋棄，虧損也是不可避免的。白酒板塊從春節之后的高點下跌了32%。當初看好白酒板塊的很多基金要么承受回撤，要么紛紛遠離。市場一致預期達成之際其實就是股價到達高點之時。因此，一抱團就崩盤其實是很自然的，合乎邏輯的。

美聯儲縮減債券購買箭在弦上。上周五發布的7月美國非農就業人數為94.3萬人，超市場預期的87萬人。如7月通脹數據再超預期，則美聯儲最早在本月的杰克森年會上將明確表示削減債券購買，而正式宣布有可能在9、10月份。近期美國財政部發債規模縮減，市場認為美聯儲縮減債券購買規模將與美國財政部的發債規模縮減同步，這將消除因縮減債券購買規模而引起的市場恐慌。非農數據發布后，美元上行，10年期美債收益率也上漲到1.3%的水平。我們上周判斷美國國債收益率上行概率增加，現在基本可以得到驗證。美元有可能跟隨美債收益率一起進入上升通道，但幅度應該不會很大。強勢美元需要美國經濟基本面好于歐洲，因美元指數中歐元的占比是最高的，高達56%。歐央行已經明確要支持經濟復蘇，不會犯2011年過早撤回支持經濟的政策舉措。考慮到美國要收縮貨幣而歐元區仍處在貨幣放水階段，有可能歐元區的經濟在3、4季度好于美國，支撐歐元兌美元走強。另外，通脹的壓力將持續存在，對基本金屬、貴金屬還是其他大宗商品提供價格支撐。我們認為這些板塊也不會受到美國回收流動性的影響。

Group psychology. In “Psychology Des Foules”Le Pen described the characteristics of group psychology including lacking reasoning power, that the average IQ of group is lower than individuals (that is obvious) and feelings guide group to act. These apply to A-share market well. Some stocks and sectors are overvalued and even in bubble.Yet there are still many investors piling money into these stocks without thinking. Some sectors or stocks are so undervalued that their dividend yield can be as high as double digit. The consensus on those hot sectors is so high that analysts have to predict the companies’ earnings in 40 years. This sounds ridiculous but the reasoning behind is that a good company can operate for a very long time. We deem that investment should be based on logic and reasoning. While investors might make money on some hot sectors in a short time they risk losing a lot when these hot sectors cool down. Liquor sector fell 32% from its high before Chinese New Year festival. Those funds that liquor stocks take heavy weighting have to bear the losses or cut exposure to this sector. It always happens that when consensus is reached the stock price reaches its top.

The Federal reserve is going to taper soon. The US non-farm payroll in July came in 943,000, higher than expected. If July inflation goes above expectation the Federal Reserve might start to announce taper soon. The earliest time would be the Jackson Hole meeting in late August. Some analysts thought that the Federal Reserve could cut off the amount of bond purchase at the same time the Treasury reduces its bond sales. This would decrease taper tantrum to a great extent. 10-year treasury yield rose after the non-farm payroll data released, as we have predicted in “The 10-year treasury yield could go up very likely” last Friday.  The US dollar index went up as well. But it might not be on an upward trend. Euro, which takes 56% in the US dollar index, could strengthen against the US dollar. This is because the European central bank  still releases liquidity to support economy for 3Q and 4Q this year and European economy could be stronger than the US.

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