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美國國債收益率走低。美國10年期國債收益率本周三短暫下跌到了1.13%，周四又回到了1.2%的水平，創下六個月以來的新低，因為大量資金流入國債市場。截止本周二，國債收益率從3月31日的高點1.74%下跌了57個基點達到1.17%，但是與去年底相比仍上升26個基點。資金狂熱地涌入債券市場可以看做是一個反向指標，即債券收益率的下跌即將結束。過去幾個月債券收益率下跌反應的是經濟放緩。同時，Delta變種也助推了債券收益率的下跌。但因當前美國通脹水平高達6%，收益率略高于1%的債券其實沒有任何投資價值。另外，當債券收益率上漲時，即使10個基點的上漲，債券的本金也會遭受較大損失，足以抹掉利息的收入。當前對國債收益率的走向有很多分歧。有分析師認為30年期的國債收益率可能從當前的1.85%下降到1.2%，這將會產生24.1%的資本增值收益。分析師認為，債券收益率沒有如預期上漲，主要因為市場預期他們上漲的人太多了，而真理往往掌握在少數人手中。我們在這次也許不一樣中分析了美國10年期國債收益率的實際和名義利率與通脹的關系。我們判斷由于通脹的持續上升，即使名義利率上漲，實際利率作為名義利率和通脹的差值，還是會往下走。但現實是10年期國債收益率的名義利率持續下跌，而通脹保持在較高水平，導致實際收益率一直處在較低水平。這也意味著當下黃金有很好的基本面支撐。如美聯儲實施縮減購債規模，名義利率將會抬升。但如果抬升幅度不大，而通脹仍在高位，則實際利率仍然保持在較低水平。我們在美聯儲能退出寬松貨幣政策嗎？一文中分析過，因美國巨額債務，且長期經濟增速保持在2-3%的水平，其國債收益率即使上升，幅度也不會很大，2%有可能是極限水平。

A股和港股均下跌，美股漲跌不一。周四A股和港股再度下跌，港股科技股領跌。快手接近95%的股份在六個月限售期結束后解禁，造成股價大跌15%，帶動恒生科技指數下跌2.1%。A股的熱門板塊光伏、鋰電池和芯片均有所調整，其中一些板塊已經過熱，風險較大。美股上漲，上周首次申請失業救濟人數符合預期。市場關注周五發布的7月份非農就業數據。如果超出市場預期，則可能促使美聯儲加快縮減債券購買規模的步伐。

The fall of the US 10-year treasury yield might come to an end. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.2% on Thursday, continuing a volatile stretchof trading for the benchmark measure. The yield briefly dipped below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading. Until Tuesday when the yield fell to 1.17%, it dropped 57 basis point since the high on March 31stwhen it reached 1.74% but still rose 26 basis point from the end of last year.The fall of the treasury yield was mainly driven by the influx of capital. The fevered buying is a contrarian indicator of rising risk in bonds. Other reasons include economy slowing down and the Delta variant. Also there are so many investors who expect the yield to rise, which might be another reason that it went the other way. Yet with inflation at 6% bond offers no investment value. Also if yield goes up by 10 basis point the price decline would totally wipe out all of the interestincome for a whole year. We have analyzed nominal treasury yield and real treasury yield in “It might be different this time ” and pointed out the real treasury yield would fall if inflation rises more than nominal treasury yield.It turns out that the real treasury yield went down as nominal treasury yield fell with inflation at a high level. But the treasury yield, even if it could go up, can not rise too much. The reason lies in the heavy debt burden of the US government. With close to US$ 30 trillion debt the US cannot afford to pay for interest rate when it reaches above 2%. So we expect the rising yield but do not expect it rise too much.

A-share and HK stocks fell while the US stocks rallied. Kuaishou Technology is faced with close to 95% of its shares unlocked. Its stock price fell 15% and causes Hang Seng Technology Index to fall more than 2%. The hot sectors including chips, new energy and photovoltaic sector corrected with some sectors over-crowded and in bubbles. Last week the initial jobless claim came in line with expectation. Market pays a close attention to the non-farm payroll to be released on Friday. This data could determine the tapering timing of the Fed. The US stocks rallied with recovery stocks rising the most.

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