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股價(jià)見(jiàn)頂?shù)男盘?hào)之一。在《投資者的未來(lái)》一書(shū)中，沃頓商學(xué)院教授杰里米·西格爾描寫(xiě)了他在網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫破滅之前因發(fā)表了一篇質(zhì)疑網(wǎng)絡(luò)股估值的文章而遭受的種種質(zhì)疑。他這篇文章在1999年4月19日發(fā)表于華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)，所舉的例子是美國(guó)在線。美國(guó)在線在2000年至2009年期間是美國(guó)時(shí)代華納的子公司，是著名的因特網(wǎng)服務(wù)提供商。在2000年美國(guó)在線和時(shí)代華納宣布合并，2001年1月11日該交易被聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會(huì)證實(shí)。該公司在西格爾發(fā)表文章時(shí)靜態(tài)市盈率為700倍，動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率450倍，市值高達(dá)2000億美金。對(duì)于如此高的估值，美林的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股票分析師亨利·布洛杰特認(rèn)為這是有經(jīng)典的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)作為依據(jù)的。西格爾卻認(rèn)為他是在愚弄大眾，他認(rèn)為“為一家科技類(lèi)先鋒公司定價(jià)所需使用的工具和為IBM即過(guò)去的其他科技巨人定價(jià)所使用的工具并沒(méi)有什么區(qū)別”。西格爾的文章引發(fā)了投資人的強(qiáng)烈不滿(mǎn)。一些投資人認(rèn)為他對(duì)先進(jìn)的商務(wù)模式一無(wú)所知，在識(shí)別機(jī)遇方面的水平等同于幼兒。還有一些投資人認(rèn)為沃頓商學(xué)院應(yīng)該趕快讓他退休，否則商學(xué)院的名譽(yù)將受到損害。在遭遇這一切之后，西格爾意識(shí)到投資人愛(ài)上了他們所投資的股票，這其實(shí)也是股價(jià)見(jiàn)頂?shù)男盘?hào)之一。通常在股價(jià)接近或達(dá)到泡沫時(shí)期，投資人通常不會(huì)理性地看待股票，他們相信這次不一樣。但結(jié)果往往是泡沫破裂。周末爆出的A股半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)賣(mài)方分析師和實(shí)業(yè)界人士的爭(zhēng)論其實(shí)是西格爾所遭遇的一切的翻版。歷史不會(huì)重復(fù)，但會(huì)踏著同樣的韻腳。當(dāng)前A股的部分行業(yè)的股票估值也達(dá)到了幾百倍的市盈率，而投資人支付這么高的估值的理由也是這次不一樣。但是，歷史證明，這次不一樣是投資中最昂貴的一句話(huà)。美國(guó)在線在2015年被威瑞森通信收購(gòu)，收購(gòu)價(jià)格為45億美金，估值較2000年高點(diǎn)下跌98%。

A股巨量反彈，港股縮量上漲。A股申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中僅有鋼鐵、采掘和休閑服務(wù)板塊下跌，建筑材料、汽車(chē)和國(guó)防軍工板塊領(lǐng)漲。港股12個(gè)行業(yè)中，只有公用事業(yè)行業(yè)下跌，原材料、工業(yè)和電訊行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲。美股尾盤(pán)跳水，因投資人擔(dān)憂(yōu)疫情加劇影響經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。10年期國(guó)債收益率下跌到1.17%。

A sign that stock price is peaking. Jeremy Siegel described what happened to him after he published an article on Wall Street Journal on April 19th 1999 about the high valuation of internet stocks. He cited American Online as an example. American Online is an internet provider and combined with Time Warner in 2001. The stock was valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 700x and forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio 450x. Its market cap reached US$200billion at that time. The Merrill Lynch internet analyst Henry Blodget said that American Online was valued on classic valuation metric. Yet Siegel believed that he was just making a fool of common investors and insisted that there would be no major differences of valuation metric for a pioneer technology company such as American online and the past tech giant such as IBM. Siegel then suffered critics from many investors. Some sent email to tell him that he did not have the capabilities to understand new technology. Some asked Wharton School to let Siegel retire as soon as possible so that he would not hurt the reputation of the school. What happened to Siegel is very similar to what happened to a tech guy from a leading semiconductor company over the past weekend. He was also criticized by a sell-side analyst as knowing little about semiconductor sector. According to Siegel this usually means that investors fall in love with the stocks they invest. This is one of the signs that stock price is peaking. Currently in A-share there are also companies in semiconductor and other sectors valued at an extreme level.Investors believe that this time it is different, which turns out to be the most expensive words for investors. American Online was acquired by Verizon in 2015 at a price of US$4.5 billion, down 98% from its peak valuation in 1999.

A-share rallied with big trading volume while HK stocks rose with contracted volume. The US stocks dived at the final trading hour as investors were concerned that Delta variant could hamper economic recovery. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.17% and oil prices fell sharply as well. 

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