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股市里沒有永遠(yuǎn)的神。近期白酒板塊大幅下跌，引發(fā)投資人的熱議。我們之前曾多次在楓瑞視點(diǎn)微信公眾號(hào)中討論過這一板塊，具體請(qǐng)參見股票的定價(jià)不能建立在遙遠(yuǎn)的未來、A股市場的割裂等。在某賣方上調(diào)某著名消費(fèi)股目標(biāo)價(jià)的時(shí)候，分析了牛市中賣方分析師的作用。我們一直想傳達(dá)的是：投資中最重要的就是盈利和估值的匹配。市場火熱的時(shí)候，投資人通常都關(guān)注趨勢不關(guān)注估值。這些投資人很容易在趨勢逆轉(zhuǎn)的時(shí)候，產(chǎn)品業(yè)績受到?jīng)_擊。有投資人問追逐成長股難道不是一個(gè)很好的投資策略嗎？確實(shí)，至少在過去十年，成長股策略是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)跑贏價(jià)值股的。一個(gè)典型的例子就是作為股神的巴菲特，近些年來收益率較低，與其堅(jiān)守價(jià)值股而沒有配置科技成長股有很大的關(guān)系。但是，成長股有成長股的煩惱。一個(gè)就是快速成長的時(shí)間不會(huì)是永久的。通常而言，一家公司能有幾年的高增長就是很好的公司了。其次，由于投資人都喜歡成長股，估值一般都比較高。尤其2008年金融危機(jī)以來，成長股的估值遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于價(jià)值股。這是由于2008年金融危機(jī)以來，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)低速成長，成長股變得很稀缺有很大關(guān)系。但是，今年情況發(fā)生了逆轉(zhuǎn)。很多周期股的業(yè)績?cè)鏊俣即蟪A(yù)期，而且估值都很低。這對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的消費(fèi)醫(yī)藥成長股構(gòu)成了沖擊。今年消費(fèi)醫(yī)藥行業(yè)業(yè)績?cè)鏊儆兴啪彛F(tuán)基金逐漸減倉這些板塊，有的加倉到周期性行業(yè)上，有的選擇其他成長賽道。所以，股市里沒有一直漲的股票，也沒有永遠(yuǎn)的神。時(shí)刻對(duì)市場保持敬畏。

疫情下中美經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。中國7月官方制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)回落，美經(jīng)濟(jì)2季度增速低于預(yù)期。全球Delta 病毒肆虐，預(yù)計(jì)對(duì)3季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長可能造成一定沖擊。從周期來看，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入庫存周期的下行期，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能在3季度進(jìn)入庫存周期下行期。中央政治局工作會(huì)議釋放出的政策信號(hào)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)友好，下半年財(cái)政政策應(yīng)偏積極，4季度隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大，貨幣政策有進(jìn)一步放松可能。

上周（ 下同）A股和港股領(lǐng)跌全球。上證指數(shù)、深成指和恒生指數(shù)分別下跌4.98%、4.3%和3.69%。港股通凈流出227億人民幣，創(chuàng)下港股通開通以來的最大周度凈流出。這一方面與港股大跌有關(guān)，另一方面港股自8月1日上調(diào)交易印花稅。

There is no the invincible in stock markets. With the broad market declining that liquor sector fell more than any other sector has provoked a lot of discussion. We have discussed liquor in our official wechat “Maple Insights” in “Stocks should not be valued based on a far future”, “The divergence in A-share” and “What a sell-side analyst usually does in a bull market”. We want to convey the idea that a stock should be valued in line with its earnings growth rate. However, in a bull market few investors pay attention to valuation as the upward trend seems to last forever. As such when the trend reverses investors would suffer big losses. From 2008 global financial crises global economy was in low growth rate mode. High growth has become a scarcity and growth stocks are valued at an extreme level. Yet since the pandemic the low-valued cyclical sectors has seen earnings growth accelerate. Also in 2021 consumption and healthcare stocks saw their growth rate come down. As a result those funds huddled in these two sectors flied away. They either put their money in cyclical sectors or other growth sectors. So no stocks can rise forever. We should pay attention to valuation when investing in a stock and always remain humble in the stock market.  

Delta variant poses downside risk to global economic growth.  China July official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index showed that economy was slowing down. Moreover, Delta variant caused new cases to surge both at home and abroad. China has seen inventory cycle to begin a downward trend in March while the US is still waiting for the peak of its economy, which might come in 3Q2021. Yet China’s fiscal policy might become more accommodative in 2H2021. And if economy faces more challenges in 4Q2021 monetary policy could become more easing, for example, by cutting interest rate. Last week A-share and HK stocks fell the most among the global 16 major indexes. HK-connect saw the largest weekly net outflow since it began both due to the stock market tumble last week and that HK will raise stamp duty for stock trading from August 1st . 

聲明：本市場點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。