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美聯儲能否退出寬松貨幣政策？美國2季度GDP實際年化增速為6.4%，雖然較1季度的6.3%有所提高，但大幅低于市場預期的8.4%。同時，周四披露的上周初次申請失業救濟人數為40萬，這大概是疫情前初次申請失業救濟人數的2倍，同時高于市場預期的38萬人。雖然美聯儲在7月份的議息會議上明示將要考慮削減債券購買，但美國10年期國債收益率仍回落到1.264%的低水平。10年期國債收益率代表聯邦基金利率的終極水平。該收益率回落意味著市場不相信美聯儲能夠重復15-18年的加息周期。在這個加息周期中，美聯儲9次加息，最終聯邦基金利率在2018年11月達到3.2%的高水平。美國當前的國債規模接近30萬億美金（下同），而每年的GDP增速在2-3%之間。20萬億GDP意味著每年的GDP增量僅為4000-6000億。這就是說美國的聯邦基金利率不能超過2%，否則美國經濟增量連還利息都不夠。從歐洲和日本的經驗看，寬松貨幣政策一旦實施都很難退出。因為經濟體對低利率產生依賴性之后，流動性收緊對經濟體會造成較大風險。首先，利率上升會刺破資產泡沫。以美國為例，如果流動性收緊超出預期，股市泡沫就面臨破滅的風險。美國2008年次貸危機爆發，也是因為加息刺破了房地產泡沫。其次，歐美等發達國家消費占GDP比重較高，通常在70-80%,而消費信貸是支撐經濟的一個重要工具。如果利率上升，對消費不利，進而阻礙GDP增速。美國2008年金融危機發生后開始實行寬松的貨幣政策。2015年開始退出寬松貨幣政策，主要是因為美國經濟增速強勁，也使美國成為唯一一個能夠退出寬松貨幣政策的發達國家。而日本實行了一輪又一輪的寬松貨幣政策，經濟始終沒有較好表現，無奈只能繼續寬松。日本央行成為日本股票市場最大的持有者。從2季度GDP增速以及其他經濟數據看，美國經濟復蘇并沒有想象中的強勁。有鑒于此，美聯儲有 可能會不斷推遲退出寬松貨幣政策的時間點。

A股和港股都大幅反彈。因美聯儲維持0利率，美股上漲。Delta病毒在美國和英國造成死亡病例的抬升。英國宣布全部接種疫苗的歐美國家人員無需隔離。英國因限制海外游客，每天承擔的經濟損失達到6.39億英鎊。

It might be challenging for the Federal Reserve to exit from quantitative easing policy (QE). The 2nd quarter GDP annualized growth rate in the US came in at 6.8%, though higher than 6.3% in the 1st quarter but significantly lower than 8.4% market expected. The initial jobless claim last week was 400,000, higher than 380,000 expected too. In the meantime the 10-year treasury yield, which is considered as the terminal rate of Fed fund rate, came down to 1.264%. Traders don’t see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10-year rate of 3.2% in November 2018. The US government debt is close to US$30 trillion. Its GDP is atUS$20 trillion and could grow at 2-3% annually, meaning that the incremental value of GDP is US$40-60 million. This implies that the Fed fund rate should not be higher than 2%. Otherwise the US can not repay interest of its government debt, not to mention principal. The Bank of America forecast 10y rates at 1.9% at the end of 2021 but with downside risk. In 2013 the US gradually exited from QE that began from 2008 global financial crises due to its strong economic growth and becomes the first nation that successfully exited QE in history. Economy would become reliant on QE. Hence, if exiting it a nation would risk bubble burst and economic growth slowing down. Take the example of Japan it can not exit QE due to weak economic growth and has to pump liquidity into the economy again and again. The Bank of Japan has become the largest holder of Japanese stocks. The Federal Reserve might face the same challenges if the US economy can not grow robustly.

Both A-share and HK stocks rebounded strongly. Chinext Index in A-share and Tech Index in HK led the rally. The US stocks rose to record high as the Fed kept zero interest rate policy. Delta variant has caused death cases to rise in both the US and UK. Despite this, the UK government announced that it would not require those fully vaccinated from the US and Europe to be quarantined. 

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