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中國(guó)老百姓的錢(qián)都花在了哪里。上周課外培訓(xùn)行業(yè)受到政策的強(qiáng)力打壓。根據(jù)券商的測(cè)算：如果從小學(xué)1年級(jí)到高中3年級(jí)全部課外培訓(xùn)都不讓在周末和寒暑假開(kāi)展的話(huà)，則上市的K12培訓(xùn)機(jī)構(gòu)46-80%的收入就沒(méi)有了。年初以來(lái)，培訓(xùn)類(lèi)上市公司的股價(jià)最大跌幅達(dá)到97%，基本上反映了政策的嚴(yán)厲程度。投資人會(huì)很疑惑: 明明年初還是朝陽(yáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)，怎么到了年中就成了夕陽(yáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)了？其實(shí)產(chǎn)業(yè)還是在的，但是過(guò)度商業(yè)化之后就變成了讓老百姓不能幸福的行業(yè)了。教育、醫(yī)療和房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)被稱(chēng)作中國(guó)老百姓的“新三座大山”，主要是因?yàn)檫@些支出占老百姓支出的比例過(guò)高。根據(jù)中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)局，我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出中，醫(yī)療支出占比從1993年的2.7%上漲到2019年的8.1%，26年間占比上漲了3倍。住房支出占個(gè)人支出比例從1993年的6.6%上漲到24.2%，26年間占比上漲了3.7倍。教育支出沒(méi)有單獨(dú)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。從個(gè)人感受看，這個(gè)支出也是剛性的。雖然我國(guó)人均GDP達(dá)到1.1萬(wàn)美金，但是城鎮(zhèn)居民花在食品上的支出仍占個(gè)人全部支出的27.6%。加上住房支出，吃和住合計(jì)占個(gè)人支出比例達(dá)到51.8%，再加上醫(yī)療支出和消費(fèi)支出，估計(jì)中國(guó)老百姓大概80%的錢(qián)花在了維持基本的生活和發(fā)展需求上。而美國(guó)個(gè)人在食品和住宿上的支出占全部個(gè)人支出的比例僅為5.75%，醫(yī)療支出為16.4%，在教育上的支出沒(méi)有單獨(dú)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，即使教育支出跟醫(yī)療支出占比相當(dāng)，也比中國(guó)老百姓在吃、住、醫(yī)療和教育上的支出占比低很多。

外資并未從香港大規(guī)模撤出。隨著中國(guó)政府對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)和教育行業(yè)的整治，港股的科技股以及教育股大幅下跌。港股也從6月底至今表現(xiàn)疲弱，但從港幣對(duì)美元匯率來(lái)看，外資并沒(méi)有明顯的撤出。2020年4月到2021年2月，港幣對(duì)美元匯率多次處在強(qiáng)方兌換區(qū)間，港府不得不入市買(mǎi)入美元，賣(mài)出港幣。從2021年2月底，港幣對(duì)美元匯率開(kāi)始走軟，到2021年4月達(dá)到7.785高點(diǎn)之后港幣開(kāi)始重新走強(qiáng)。近期中美圍繞香港不斷有針對(duì)性的制裁出臺(tái)。但美方又積極尋求同中方開(kāi)展對(duì)話(huà)，本周中美將在天津舉行高層對(duì)話(huà)。中美關(guān)系對(duì)香港股市有較大影響。2019年和2020年港股市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)疲弱，跟中美關(guān)系惡化有很大關(guān)系。當(dāng)前港股經(jīng)過(guò)連續(xù)調(diào)整，很多板塊和個(gè)股估值都回落到很有吸引力的區(qū)間，具備投資價(jià)值。

Chinese consumers’ burden is heavy. The policy that targets after-school training was a big hit to those listed training companies in both HK and Nasdaq. Some investors are bewildered as to why the training sector, which was a promising sector at the beginning of 2021, turned into a sunset sector in just a couple of months. The so-called “new three mountains” for Chinese consumers are housing, medi-care and education. According to China Statistic Bureau, spending on medicine and healthcare comprised 2.7% of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in 1993 and 8.1% in 2019. The ratio increased by 2 times in 26 years. Similarly, housing comprised 6.6% of PCE in 1993 and 24.2% in 2019. Although per capita GDP is above US$ 11000 in 2020, Chinese consumers still spent 27.6% of PCE on food. The food and housing combined together took 51.8% of PCE. There is no specific data about education and training. But from personal experience expenditure on this should not be low. If we assume education and training expenditure takes 10% of PCE, Chinese consumers spend about 80% of PCE on basic living and development needs. In comparison,the US consumers only spend 5.75% on food and housing and 16.5% on healthcare.Even if education expenditure is as high as healthcare, the US consumers would spend close to 40% on basic living and development needs, which is much less than Chinese consumers. Hence,it is understandable that policy target the "new three mountains".

There is no large international money exiting from HK. From April 2020 toearly Feb. 2021 HK to US dollar exchange rate hit strong exchange side. HK Monetary Authority had to sell HK dollar and buy the US dollar during this period. But from the end of Feb. 2021 to April 2021, the HK dollar depreciated against the US dollar. After it reached HK$ 7.785, the lowest point in two months, it began to appreciate again. Recently the Sino-US tensions rose around HK. HK market performed poorly in 2019 and 2020 when Sino-US relationship went low. Yet this situation might not last long as China and US will hold talks this week.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

滯漲的魅影。美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率近期創(chuàng)出5個(gè)月新低，其中一部分原因是投資人擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)回落。同時(shí)，美國(guó)6月份消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲5.4%，繼5月份數(shù)據(jù)后再次超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。經(jīng)濟(jì)回落疊加通脹上漲讓人聯(lián)想起上世紀(jì)70年代美國(guó)遭遇的滯漲危機(jī)。當(dāng)時(shí)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲幅度從1974年2月到1975年4月都是雙位數(shù)，最高同比漲幅為1975年12月份的12.3%。70年代的滯漲一個(gè)原因是石油供應(yīng)短缺，能源價(jià)格飆升。1973年11月到1975年2月，能源CPI同比上漲幅度驚人，最高漲幅在1974年3月到9月期間超過(guò)30%。而GDP同比增速在1974年2季度到1975年2季度連續(xù)4個(gè)季度負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。我們認(rèn)為當(dāng)前美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)狀況良好，雖然明年因今年的高基數(shù)，有可能發(fā)生GDP同比增速下降的情況，但是環(huán)比應(yīng)還是保持增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì)。石油價(jià)格有沒(méi)有可能成為通脹的推手呢？歐佩克+上周末做出了每日增產(chǎn)40萬(wàn)桶原油產(chǎn)量的決定，同時(shí)計(jì)劃在2022年9月之前，在市場(chǎng)條件允許的情況下全面取消580萬(wàn)桶/日的減產(chǎn)份額。歐佩克的減產(chǎn)決議對(duì)油價(jià)看似利空，但受經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇帶動(dòng)，一些分析師認(rèn)為油價(jià)將會(huì)上漲到80美元每桶。如果油價(jià)保持在高位，在明年的某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)，美國(guó)有可能陷入“類(lèi)滯脹”。短暫“類(lèi)滯脹”不會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)較大沖擊。但如最后不幸演繹成持續(xù)的滯漲，持有現(xiàn)金是不劃算的，債券和股票也會(huì)遭遇雙殺，只有商品是值得配置的。滯漲，但愿它只是個(gè)魅影。

周四A股小幅上漲，港股大漲。美股連續(xù)第三個(gè)交易日反彈，科技股漲幅領(lǐng)先。一些分析師認(rèn)為從去年10月以來(lái)，美股就沒(méi)有經(jīng)歷過(guò)像樣的調(diào)整，8、9月份有可能會(huì)有調(diào)整的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。野村證券發(fā)表報(bào)告表示，鄭州洪災(zāi)將在短期內(nèi)對(duì)商業(yè)活動(dòng)和通脹產(chǎn)生重大影響。但洪災(zāi)一旦結(jié)束被壓抑的消費(fèi)及投資需求將會(huì)得到釋放，特別是對(duì)汽車(chē)(因當(dāng)?shù)卦S多已損壞)和城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的需求。該行指，降雨和洪水也可能會(huì)在未來(lái)數(shù)周略微提高河南和鄰近省份食品價(jià)格。鄭州2020年GDP總量為1.2萬(wàn)億人民幣(占全國(guó)GDP的1.2%)，總?cè)丝谶_(dá)1,260萬(wàn)(占全國(guó)人口的0.9%)，中國(guó)重要的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)樞紐之一。鄭州所在的河南省人口占全國(guó)的7%，2020年對(duì)全國(guó)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率為5.4%。河南為農(nóng)業(yè)糧食和礦產(chǎn)品(如鋁及煤)的出產(chǎn)地。

The looming stagnation. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.20% earlier this week, a five-month low on the concern that economy growth would lose momentum. Moreover,May CPI in the US rose 5.4% year-on-year (yoy), higher than expected. The combination of a slowing economy and high inflation reminds investors of the stagflation in the 1970s. The monthly CPI rose at double digit from Feb. 1974 to April 1975. And oil price pushed CPI higher, which rose at more than 30% per month from Nov. 1973 to Feb. 1975. The US economy grows well currently. Yet in 2022 it might see negative yoy growth due to the high base this year. OPEC+ reached a deal last weekend to increase oil production by 4 million barrels per day and to lift the restriction of 5.8 million barrels per day in Sept 2022. While this deal hit the oil price hard on Monday, analysts believed that oil prices would reach US$80 per barrel given strong demand and supply shortage. If oil prices can be maintained at high levels, some time in 2022 we might see stagflation in the US. And if it turns into a sustained stagflation, cash, bond and stocks would all suffer. The only asset that can defend inflation is commodity.

A-share rose slightly and HK market rallied. The US stock market continued to rise for the third day in a row. Tech stocks rose the most. The US stock market has not experienced more than 5% correction since last October. Some analysts believed that it would see correction in August or September. Nomura believed that Zhengzhou flood would push up inflation in the short term in Zhengzhou and Henan Province. But it would also help car consumption and boost demand for infrastructure.Henan Province, of which Zhengzhou is the capital, is a key province that provides grain and manufactures aluminum and coal. Henan has a population of 96.4 million, 7% of the total population of China. It contributed 7% of national GDP in 2020. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

成長(zhǎng)股估值處于歷史高位。年初以來(lái)創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)是A股所有指數(shù)中漲幅最高的。截止2021年7月21日，上漲31.6%。創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)包括50只創(chuàng)業(yè)板個(gè)股，其中前10大權(quán)重股占創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)市值的73.6%。前十大權(quán)重股分別是寧德時(shí)代（權(quán)重為17.2%，下同）、東方財(cái)富（13.8%）、愛(ài)爾眼科（9.1%）、億緯鋰能（7.4%）、卓勝微（7.2%）、匯川技術(shù)（6.4%）、愛(ài)美客（3.6%）、陽(yáng)光電源（2.9%）、智飛生物（2.88%）和歐普康視（2.76%）。這10大權(quán)重股中靜態(tài)市盈率最低的是東方財(cái)富，60倍；最高的是愛(ài)美客，394倍。創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)總體靜態(tài)市盈率為84.8倍，處在歷史上86.7%的分位。當(dāng)前估值水平低于2020年7月和2021年2月高點(diǎn)的估值水平，創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)在前述兩個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)的靜態(tài)市盈率分別為102.7和95倍。創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)分別從前兩次的高點(diǎn)回落18.7%和29.8%。無(wú)論是電動(dòng)車(chē)還是醫(yī)美或者光伏板塊，當(dāng)前都處在情緒比較熱的階段，市場(chǎng)有可能隨時(shí)發(fā)生調(diào)整。將創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)與銀行指數(shù)的估值進(jìn)行對(duì)比，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)對(duì)銀行指數(shù)的估值比率已經(jīng)達(dá)到2021年來(lái)的高點(diǎn)(圖一）。當(dāng)前位置該比值為12.5，超過(guò)2021年1月下旬的高點(diǎn)12。銀行股是價(jià)值股的典型代表。這也意味著成長(zhǎng)對(duì)價(jià)值的估值達(dá)到了較高水平。全球來(lái)看，價(jià)值股在過(guò)去15年跑輸成長(zhǎng)股。成長(zhǎng)股的盈利增速總是高于價(jià)值股，問(wèn)題是高多少和投資人支付的價(jià)格是多少。根據(jù)有關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)全球2000只股票的加權(quán)平均統(tǒng)計(jì)，成長(zhǎng)股從1990年到2021年6月30日，每年比價(jià)值股的盈利增速高2.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。所以，盈利增速并沒(méi)有差太多。成長(zhǎng)股的估值貴主要是投資人對(duì)他們的盈利預(yù)期過(guò)高造成的。而根據(jù)杰里米·西格爾在《投資者的未來(lái)》中所指出的：投資收益來(lái)自預(yù)期差，即企業(yè)實(shí)際業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊倥c預(yù)期業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊僦睢?duì)于成長(zhǎng)股而言，因?yàn)轭A(yù)期高，所以估值很高，但是實(shí)際上經(jīng)常會(huì)有令投資人失望的股票。歷史上看，有成長(zhǎng)股股價(jià)下跌而引發(fā)市場(chǎng)危機(jī)的例子，最典型的就是2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂。

圖一：創(chuàng)成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)與銀行指數(shù)靜態(tài)市盈率比值

數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：WIND

周二A股強(qiáng)勁反彈，港股微跌。歐美股市繼續(xù)大幅反彈。經(jīng)過(guò)周二和周三兩天的反彈，美股收回周一的全部跌幅。經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股引領(lǐng)股市上漲。10年期國(guó)債收益率上漲8個(gè)基點(diǎn)達(dá)到1.29%，美元指數(shù)從93高位回落，原油價(jià)格回升到70美金每桶以上。

Growth stocks’ valuation to value stocks reached a new high. The best performing index in A-share is Chinext Momentum Growth Index, which rose 31.6% year-to-date. The top-ten weighting stocks in terms of market cap comprise 73.6% of the index. The biggest weighting stock is Contemporary Amperex Technology, which takes 17.3% of the index weighting. East Money Information is the cheapest stock among the top 10 at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) of 60x while Imerk Technology is the most expensive at TTW PE of 394x. Chinext Momentum Growth index is valued at TTW PE of 84x, which put it at 86.4% percentile since it was set up in Jan. 2019. This compared with 102.7x and 95x in July 2020 and Feb. 2021, the previous two highs for the index. The index then corrected close to 20% and 30% respectively from these two highs. Moreover, the ratio of Chinext Momentum Growth Index TTW PE to that of bank sector also reached a new high in 2021. The ratio was 12.5x, higher than 12x at the end of Jan. this year but lower than 14x in July 2020. According to a statistic on 2000 global stocks the weighted average earnings growth rate of growth stocks is 2.6 percentage point higher than that of value stocks on annualized basis from 1990 to June 30th 2021. In a word the growth stocks only grow a little faster than value stocks. The high valuation of growth stocks is due to the high expectation of investors. Jeremy Siegel pointed out in his famous book “The future for investors” that investment return is determined by the gap between expectation and actual earnings growth.For growth stocks it frequently turns out that the actual earnings growth is lower than expected. Hence, when growth stocks correct the impact to the market is usually quite big. A case in point is the internet bubble burst in 2000.

A-share rose and HK market fellslightly. The US and European market continued to rebound strongly and most of them recouped the losses on Monday after the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

港股疲弱。從2021年4月20日，即印度疫情爆發(fā)的時(shí)間點(diǎn)到7月20日，在全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)的指數(shù)中，恒生指數(shù)按漲幅排名倒數(shù)第二，在該區(qū)間（下同）下降6.6%，僅好于日本的下跌7.7%。在恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中，僅有兩個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，分別是醫(yī)藥生物和公用事業(yè)，分別上漲10%和1%。在下跌的10個(gè)行業(yè)中，7個(gè)行業(yè)的跌幅在5%以上。跌幅居前的行業(yè)是科技、地產(chǎn)建筑和綜合，分別下跌12%、10.9%和9.4%。港股從去年4季度到1季度表現(xiàn)較好，但是春節(jié)之后受A股下跌帶動(dòng)以及港府征收印花稅的影響，表現(xiàn)弱勢(shì)。4月下旬印度疫情爆發(fā)后，港股一路下行，7月份以來(lái)甚至連續(xù)8天下跌。反觀(guān)印度，在此期間上漲8.8%，領(lǐng)漲全球16個(gè)主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)。港股如此疲弱的一個(gè)原因是美元指數(shù)走強(qiáng)。美元指數(shù)在2021年5月25日達(dá)到低點(diǎn)89.6685之后開(kāi)始一路上行，至7月20日上漲至92.9764，近2個(gè)月時(shí)間上漲3.69%。我們?cè)凇陡酃擅髂甏蟾怕逝苴A(yíng)A股》中指出，港股跑贏(yíng)A股通常是在美元貶值的時(shí)候，這種情況下，資金會(huì)從美國(guó)市場(chǎng)流入新興市場(chǎng)，而港股估值較低，通常最先受益。而當(dāng)美元指數(shù)走強(qiáng)時(shí)，情況就恰恰相反。資金最先流出港股，回到美國(guó)本土市場(chǎng)。第二個(gè)原因是新冠疫情阻礙了經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。港股價(jià)值股占比較高，很多是受益于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的。但是新冠疫情對(duì)這些板塊構(gòu)成了較大沖擊，無(wú)論是博彩還是航空，都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有恢復(fù)到2019年同期的水平，也低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的水平。這些困境中的公司似乎永遠(yuǎn)也走不出困境，這也對(duì)港股造成了很大的壓力。再次，港股科技股去年表現(xiàn)全球領(lǐng)先，漲幅媲美納斯達(dá)克和A股的創(chuàng)業(yè)板。但今年以來(lái)，因?yàn)楸F(tuán)股的瓦解疊加中國(guó)政府對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)企業(yè)的整治，該板塊一蹶不振，領(lǐng)跌港股主要指數(shù)。最后，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)政府從5月份以來(lái)打壓大宗商品價(jià)格，相關(guān)的原材料板塊也走勢(shì)低迷。港股走強(qiáng)一方面需要市場(chǎng)跌出價(jià)值，我們認(rèn)為當(dāng)前估值已經(jīng)具有吸引力。另一方面也需要外部的催化劑，如美元走弱或者我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇超預(yù)期。當(dāng)然中美關(guān)系改善也是一個(gè)重要催化劑。

周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股微跌，港股跌幅近1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，符合我們的判斷。美股和歐洲股市均從低點(diǎn)反彈，大宗商品價(jià)格回升。

The HK market has been weak since April. From April 20th to July 20th (the same below) Hang SengIndex fell 6.3%, ranked as the 15th among the 16 major global indexes. Nikkei Index of Japan fell 7.7%, the worst performer out of 16 major indexes. Only 2 sectors,ie. healthcare and utilities sector, rose out of 12 Hang Seng sectors. Among the 10 falling sectors 7 fell more than 5%. Tech, property and conglomerate fell the most at 12%, 10.9% and 9.4% respectively. In comparison Sensex30 of India rose 8.8%, the best performer among the 16 major indexes despite that Delta variant caused COVID-19 pandemic to resurge in India in mid-April. So why HK market was so weak? The first reason is that US dollar has been appreciating since the end of May. In “The HK market would likely outperform A-share in 2021” we found that when US dollar depreciates capital would flow to emerging markets. HK usually benefits more than any other market due to its low valuation. Yet when the US dollar appreciates the capital would flow back to the US and HK is the first market that capital exits. From the end of May the US dollar index rose 3.7% and above 93 on July 20th for the first time in two months. The second reason is that the pandemic has hampered economic recovery. Stocks associated with economic recovery comprises a big component of the HK market. These companies’earnings were below expectation and hence their stock performance. The last but not the least is that Chinese government took measure to control inflation which put commodity prices under pressure. Raw material sector fell sharply. When would HK market perform again? The first is that the market falls to a level with deep value, which we believe it has done. The second is that it needs catalysts, such as better-than-expected economic recovery and US dollar depreciation. Any improvementin Sino-US relationship could drive the market up.

Both A-share and HK market bottomed out on Tuesday. The US and European market also rebounded from a big sell-off on Tuesday.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

美國(guó)股債大跌，美元上漲。周一美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率下跌到1.2%以下，為5個(gè)月以來(lái)的新低。如果債券市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)期是對(duì)的，那說(shuō)明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)很可能要下行。另一方面，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)要削減債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃。在此情況下，利率應(yīng)該上行。債券詭異的下行是因?yàn)槭裁茨兀坑幸徊糠址治鰩熣J(rèn)為是交易性因素導(dǎo)致的。今年美股表現(xiàn)很好，機(jī)構(gòu)投資者在股市賺錢(qián)之后回頭又買(mǎi)入債券，壓低了債券的利率。歸根結(jié)底是流動(dòng)性過(guò)于充裕造成的。而美元指數(shù)在5月25日達(dá)到89.6565低點(diǎn)，之后一路反彈上沖到92.8285，周一略有回落。因OPEC+達(dá)成石油增產(chǎn)協(xié)議，疊加新冠疫情加劇可能會(huì)減少對(duì)石油的需求，石油價(jià)格周一大跌。美債、美股和石油下跌結(jié)合美元上漲，給人感覺(jué)是避險(xiǎn)情緒在發(fā)生作用。我們認(rèn)為主要是市場(chǎng)對(duì)Delta病毒的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。但根據(jù)美國(guó)知名對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理比爾·阿克曼，Delta病毒將會(huì)促使更多的人去接種新冠疫苗，其實(shí)對(duì)疫情控制是有利的。比爾·阿克曼認(rèn)為美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率最終還是會(huì)上升，并認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)在秋季有強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)。但另一方面，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)同比增速在今年2季度達(dá)到高點(diǎn)之后，3、4季度將會(huì)下行。如同中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在1季度同比增速達(dá)到高點(diǎn)之后，2季度開(kāi)始下行一樣。但這并不代表經(jīng)濟(jì)失去了增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力。環(huán)比來(lái)看，中國(guó)2季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速是比1季度要高的。美國(guó)的情況也應(yīng)如此，特別是美國(guó)股市上漲幅度巨大，居民財(cái)富增值很多。同時(shí)，巨額財(cái)政刺激下，老百姓手頭也很寬裕，且有可能是史上最寬裕的時(shí)期。這意味著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)3季度的環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)比較強(qiáng)勁。未來(lái)有可能是國(guó)債收益率上升和美股上漲疊加美元指數(shù)回升。市場(chǎng)還擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和財(cái)政部手里沒(méi)有多少?gòu)椝幙捎茫绹?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)從此一蹶不振。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和財(cái)政部聯(lián)手實(shí)施的現(xiàn)代貨幣政策理論其實(shí)意味著量化寬松沒(méi)有上限，但是對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的后果就是增大債務(wù)量，將問(wèn)題發(fā)生的時(shí)間后移。

周一A股微跌，港股大跌。今年以來(lái)，因中國(guó)政府收緊流動(dòng)性，A股和港股漲幅落后于全球股市。受中美關(guān)系影響，港股7月份以來(lái)接連下跌。另一方面，我國(guó)貨幣政策已有所松動(dòng)，對(duì)股市提供支撐。而上半年缺位的財(cái)政政策下半年也將會(huì)發(fā)力，因此經(jīng)濟(jì)下行將是可控的、溫和的。因此，我們認(rèn)為A股和港股跟跌美股的可能性較小。

The US is not in another crisis. On Monday the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.206%, the lowest from Feb. 2021. The US stocks fell sharply amid the concern of rising new cases caused by Delta variant. In the meantime the US dollar rose to a new high from the end of May. As the Federal Reserve is preparing to taper the bond yield should rise rather than fall. Some analysts believed that falling treasury yield was due to that the institutional investors took profits from stock markets and put the money into bond market,i.e., the bond prices were driven up by abundant liquidity. But the combination of falling treasury yield, stocks prices tumble along with rising US dollar usually means a big risk is looming. This risk is highly transmissible Delta variant. But according to a famous hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, the Delta variant would push more American to get vaccinated. This is actually good for the economy. Moreover, with huge cash in hands the American consumers would spend and boost economy. He believed that the US economy would be robust in the fall. Contrary to his optimism, many analysts believe that the US economy is peaking in 2Q2021. The bond market is reflecting that economy would slow down gradually. It is true that on year-on-year basis the US economy would peak out in 2Q2021 due to the low base in 2020. But from quarter-on-quarter perspective the US economy would grow strongly for the 3rd quarter. The American consumers have enjoyed the big increase of fortune as the stock market rallied year-to-date. Moreover, they also have big cash on hands issued by government as unemployment compensation.

A-share fell slightly while HK stocks fell sharply. If the US market corrects would A-share and HK stocks follow suit? We believe the possibility is nothigh. Both A-share and HK stocks lagged behind other major stock markets year-to-date. Moreover, HK markets recently corrected a lot due to the deteriorating Sino-US relationship. Both have much lower valuation than global peers. As China controls COVID-19 pandemic better than any other country in the world, A-share and HK stocks should be considered as safe heaven.

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。

Delta病毒對(duì)股市是利空嗎？截止上周五美國(guó)新冠新增病例較前一周7天平均上漲了67%達(dá)到26448例，死亡病例上漲26%達(dá)到273例，美股大跌。美國(guó)前FDA主任認(rèn)為美國(guó)有可能低估Delta病毒造成的傳染情況，原因是已打過(guò)新冠疫苗的人不會(huì)再去做測(cè)試，而沒(méi)打疫苗的人都把COVID-19看成是一個(gè)普通感冒，更不會(huì)去做測(cè)試。根據(jù)美國(guó)疾控預(yù)防中心數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)48%的人口已經(jīng)完全免疫，56%的人口至少接種了一劑疫苗。65歲以上人群中79%已經(jīng)完全免疫，89%接受了一劑新冠疫苗。但根據(jù)華盛頓郵報(bào)和ABC新聞聯(lián)合進(jìn)行的抽樣調(diào)查顯示：29%的美國(guó)人認(rèn)為他們不太可能接種疫苗，其中20%認(rèn)為他們絕對(duì)不會(huì)接種疫苗。所以，美國(guó)距離80%的群體免疫還有很長(zhǎng)的一段路要走。這對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和股市意味著什么？從巴西和印度的情況看，有可能是壞消息變成了好消息。這兩個(gè)國(guó)家因?yàn)樵馐蹹elta病毒侵襲，股市都大幅回落之后又大幅上漲。從這兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)情況看，小公司和窮人受疫情沖擊較大，而大公司反而借此機(jī)會(huì)降低成本和提升市場(chǎng)份額。能夠上市的企業(yè)一般都是規(guī)模較大的企業(yè)。另一方面，疫情的再次爆發(fā)促使中央銀行繼續(xù)維持寬松的貨幣政策。印度儲(chǔ)備銀行，即印度的中央銀行，將基準(zhǔn)利率保持在4%的歷史低位，以促進(jìn)借款和建筑活動(dòng)。回到美國(guó)，因?yàn)镈elta病毒導(dǎo)致的新增病例上升，洛杉磯市加強(qiáng)了防控舉措，即在室內(nèi)需要戴口罩。根據(jù)美國(guó)FDA前主任，美國(guó)大多數(shù)地方都不會(huì)重新加強(qiáng)防控，因?yàn)椴粫?huì)有人支持這種舉措。對(duì)疫情有顧慮的人都打疫苗了，而沒(méi)有打疫苗的人都是對(duì)疫情不在乎的人。所以，美國(guó)未來(lái)疫情很有可能會(huì)加劇。參照巴西和印度的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，疫情對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不利，但是會(huì)拖延美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)退出的步伐。如果疫情一而再、再而三，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)何時(shí)能退出寬松的貨幣政策就是未知數(shù)了。也許像日本一樣再也退不出來(lái)。

A股和港股小幅上漲。港股表現(xiàn)好于A股，主因應(yīng)是超跌反彈。A股內(nèi)部估值差異達(dá)到極限，熱門(mén)板塊接連調(diào)整，市場(chǎng)風(fēng)格面臨切換。外資對(duì)中國(guó)政府整治互聯(lián)網(wǎng)平臺(tái)公司有較大擔(dān)憂(yōu)，認(rèn)為這會(huì)壓低這些公司的估值。

Is Delta variant a negative to stock markets?  The seven-day average of new daily infections standing at 26,448, up 67% from a week ago according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. The weekly average of new daily deaths is up 26% from a week ago, to 273. As of Friday, 48.3% of the country’s population was fully vaccinated and nearly 56% had received at least one dose,according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention （CDC）. More than 79% of people age 65 and up are fully vaccinated and nearly 89% have had at least one dose, according to the CDC. But accordingto a survey by the Washington Post and ABC news, 29% of respondents said thatthey were not likely to get vaccinated. Among it 20% said they would not be vaccinated definitely. Hence, it is still a long way for the US to become herd immunity as it requires 80% of population to be vaccinated. However,Delta variant is not necessarily bad news for stock markets from what happened in Indian and Brazil. Both Indian and Brazil suffered sharp fall of stock markets due to the surging COVID-19 cases caused by Delta variant. Yet both countries’ stock market registered strong bounce back after COVID-19 cases peaking out. On one hand the pandemic hit the poor and the small businesses harder than those bigger ones, which took the opportunities to cut costs and take more market share; on the other hand the central banks would have to maintain the easing policy to boost economy. Take India as an example, the India Reserve Bank kept benchmark interest rate at historical low 4% to help lending and construction activities. So if Delta variant spread out in the US the Federal Reserve might have to maintain its QE policy for a longer time than expected.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. HK market rose strongly bouncing back from low levels. Both A-share and HK market saw the divergence of valuation among sectors came to an extreme, meaning that the market style might change soon. 

聲明：本市場(chǎng)點(diǎn)評(píng)由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點(diǎn)”微信公眾號(hào)提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見(jiàn)不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對(duì)任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負(fù)任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書(shū)面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。