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 壹 上市可能是救命稻草

      近期，不僅有房地產(chǎn)公司因多元化經(jīng)營導(dǎo)致巨額債務(wù)無法償付，還有個別制造業(yè)的民營企業(yè)也爆出因重大虧損和運營困難，無法償還債務(wù)的消息。巧合的是這兩家企業(yè)都曾經(jīng)申請在A股進行下屬公司的IPO和借殼上市，但均未得到批準。也有企業(yè)近期撤回A股的上市申請。從其披露信息看，該企業(yè)的債務(wù)水平也較高。A股的IPO也許是某些企業(yè)的救命稻草，但如果允許這些企業(yè)進行IPO，很可能會加劇系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險。

       貳 高杠桿率加劇危機對經(jīng)濟的沖擊

       前美聯(lián)儲主席艾倫·格林斯潘在《動蕩的世界》中分析了債務(wù)的重要性。他指出1987年股市大跌和2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅并沒有對經(jīng)濟造成較大沖擊，主要就是因為美國實體和金融機構(gòu)當(dāng)時的杠桿率較低，而2008年全球金融危機對經(jīng)濟造成自1929年大蕭條以來的重大沖擊，主要原因就是杠桿率過高。他假設(shè)如果2008年的房地產(chǎn)抵押貸款支持證券有低杠桿機構(gòu)持有，如養(yǎng)老金和共同基金，這些機構(gòu)也會遭受巨額損失，但是由于債務(wù)違約而導(dǎo)致的破產(chǎn)事件將會少很多，這樣對經(jīng)濟的沖擊程度也會小很多。

       叁 影子銀行幫助提高杠桿率

       我們在危機的啟示中討論了人們對危機的認識通常是不足的。而這個不足主要是因為危機初始時，監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和市場參與者很難搞清楚杠桿率的高低。2007年底，雷曼兄弟的杠桿率高達30倍以上，而其他幸運度過危機的投資銀行杠桿率也都不低，比如美林證券的杠桿率接近28倍。這是從公開信息中看出的杠桿率。但正如橋水創(chuàng)始人達利奧所說的影子銀行在加杠桿的過程中發(fā)揮了重要作用，這也使得實際的杠桿率遠高于公開信息披露的杠桿率。

      肆 我國杠桿率總體穩(wěn)定

      我們在去年底發(fā)表的信用債無序違約是股市的阿克琉斯之踵嗎？分析了我國的影子銀行，包括委托貸款和信托貸款的同比增速以及存量情況。可以看出我國影子銀行的新增規(guī)模增速是下降的，而存量也在緩慢減少。但加杠桿無處不在。如果一些企業(yè)通過上市而得以繼續(xù)加杠桿行為，那A股IPO豈不成了唐僧肉嗎？這一定不是二級市場投資人希望看到的。

     伍 上證指數(shù)上周下跌

    上證指數(shù)是全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)中唯一下跌的。美股上周上漲，好于預(yù)期的企業(yè)3季度業(yè)績暫時壓制了對經(jīng)濟滯漲的擔(dān)憂。美國11月份將會接收國際旅客，市場對經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的前景謹慎樂觀

I. High-leveraged companies' IPO were rejected

It was reported that some private company in manufacturing sector was faced with big losses and poor performance of businesses. As a result it was not able to pay big amount of debt. Before that some property company also was trapped in big debt burden. It seems coincidental that both companies ever applied for A-share IPO and was not approved. We also noticed that a well-known company withdrew its IPO application lately, whose debt burden was not low based on its disclosed information. Thanks to the decisions from supervising agencies that did not allow these companies to be listed in A-share. 

II. High leverage poses big risk for economy

Actually, debt plays a key role in economic crises. Alan Greenspan, the ex-Federal Chairman in the US, wrote in his book “Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting” that 1987 stock market crash and 2000 internet bubble burst did not cause economic to crash.The reason is that leverage levels were low during these two periods. Yet 2008 global financial crises caused the US economy to suffer the deepest recession from 1929. The reason is that leverage levels were too high. Lehman Brothers’ net gearing ratio was more than 30x at the end of 2007. Some investment banks that were lucky to get through the crises also had comparable gearing ratio. 

III. Shadow banking increases leverage

Also shadow banking makes things worse as it increases leverage levels in ways that are hard to be found out. We ever analyzed China’s shadow banking last November and concluded that shadow banking in China was in well controlled. Yet gearing ratio can be increased via many methods. If high-leveraged companies get listed in A-share, this means that their high gearing ratio can be maintained for much longer time. If this happens, the risk of investing in A-share also increases.

IV. Shanghai Composite Index fell last week

A-share lagged behind major stock indexes last week.Shanghai Composite Index was the only one to fall last week among 16 global major indexes. The US stocks rose boosted by better-than-expected 3Q2021 earnings. The worry about stagflation subdued for the moment.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹慎。

      壹 從眾心理

      格林斯潘在《動蕩的世界》一書中分析了在股價上漲和下跌的過程中投資者心理發(fā)揮的作用。他指出在美國上世紀的股市上漲過程中，從眾心理發(fā)揮了很大作用，但是股價上漲的幅度似乎一次比一次弱。我們認為這也許是因為投資者變得越來越理性。在1929年大蕭條前5年，股市年均漲幅為28%；2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅前5年，股市年均漲幅為22%；而2007年前5年股價年均漲幅為12%。

      貳 恐懼心理

      他同時指出恐懼是比狂熱強烈得多的人類心理傾向，因此，下跌往往比上漲來的劇烈。而克服恐懼是件知易行難的事情。他舉例說許多經(jīng)驗豐富的投資者都在1987年10月19日創(chuàng)紀錄的股災(zāi)中拋售了股票。雖然他們知道是錯誤的，但財富蒸發(fā)所帶來的痛苦導(dǎo)致他們想通過擺脫股市來尋求安慰。

      叁 信用利差

      恐懼或者風(fēng)險可以用信用利差來反應(yīng)。標準普爾10年期BB+級債券，即垃圾債券收益率與10年期國債收益率的利差在股價與房地產(chǎn)泡沫的高潮期收縮到2%，而在雷曼事件后的2008年金融危機高潮期則達到了近9%。在我國，信用利差也是觀察風(fēng)險偏好的一個重要指標。通常選用較低級別的利率債與較高評級的信用債利率的差異來確定信用利差。

      肆 如何克服恐懼心理

      對于散戶而言，恐懼發(fā)揮決定性的作用。因為一旦虧完了，散戶就出局了。而只有資金雄厚的投資者才能夠承受周期性的市場沖擊，利用股市大跌建立有效的投資組合。那作為散戶如何能夠面對大幅回撤的股價和凈值損失呢？首先，散戶炒股也要有紀律性。如果回撤到一定程度，要及時止損。其次，對于處在防御性行業(yè)的公司，如估值不高，則可以等待危機度過。這些公司一般會持續(xù)增長，股價會創(chuàng)出新高。但如估值過高，則等待的時間會很長。如上世紀70年代的美國漂亮50，投資者需要等待10年股價才回到高點。最后，最好的避險辦法是對公司有比較深入的了解，同時在估值較低時介入。這樣，就不用擔(dān)心系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險。

      伍 美股大漲

      A股微跌。美國上周初請失業(yè)人數(shù)好于預(yù)期，公司盈利超預(yù)期，美股大漲。

I. Herd instinct

The ex-Federal Chairman Alan Greenspan ever wrote in his book “Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting” that psychology plays a key role in asset prices volatility. He pointed out that herd instinct actually determined stock prices going up in the last century. Yet the price increase dwindled in bull markets.In the five years before 1929 stock crash the stock index rose at an annual rate of 28%. But it was 22% and 12% per annum on average respectively five years before 2000 and 2007, which led to internet bubble burst and global financial crises. It seems that investors become more sensible with time passing by. 

II. Horror

He also pointed out that horror is a type of psychology that comes with much more power than mania. As a result, stock prices always fall more sharply than the rise. And overcoming horror is much easier said than done. A case in point is stock crash on October 19th,1987 when stock index saw the largest daily decline. Many sophisticated investors sell stocks although they knew that it was wrong. The big pain of seeing fortune loss made them only want to get out of stock markets. 

III. Credit spread 

Horror or the risk investors are faced with can be measured by credit spread. The credit spread between 10-year junk bond and 10-year treasury yield narrowed to 200 basis point at the peak of stock and property market in 2007 and expanded to 900 basis point after Lehman Brothers went bankruptcy. 

IV. How to overcome horror?

Individual investors are manipulated by horror more than institutional investors. As the game would be over if they lose all of their money. For institutional investors who usually have more capital to leverage, they can make their portfolio better when stock market crash. So for individual investors it is important to have disciplines in cutting losses. Moreover, they should know the stocks well, which would also help them to endure the temporary losses. Lastly, it would be wise to buy good companies at low valuation levels. This can help them to tide over any market risks.  

V. The US stocks rallied

A-share fell slightly. The US stock rallied on good earnings report and better initial jobless claims last week.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹慎。

      壹 滯漲到衰退

      我國經(jīng)濟在從滯漲階段走向衰退階段。根據(jù)喬治·達格尼諾在《駕馭周期》一書中的總結(jié)，滯漲和衰退分別是經(jīng)濟的第三和第四階段；而第一和第二階段分別是復(fù)蘇和繁榮階段。滯漲階段的特點包括：貨幣供給增速持續(xù)下降；貨幣走勢疲軟；股票市場萎靡不振；經(jīng)濟增速放緩，最終位于長期潛在增長率之下；企業(yè)利潤增長見頂；大宗商品價格見頂；短期和長期利率見頂；通脹持續(xù)上漲后開始下降。而到了衰退階段，經(jīng)濟增速已經(jīng)低于長期潛在增速，并且伴隨著緊縮的貨幣政策和持續(xù)減少的貨幣供給，以及企業(yè)不斷地削減成本，經(jīng)濟持續(xù)疲軟。但是，由于成本下降，企業(yè)的邊際利潤率開始好轉(zhuǎn)。衰退期的特征包括：貨幣供給增速持續(xù)下降，但只要短期利率見頂，貨幣供給就會增加；貨幣先抑后揚；股票市場雖然低迷，但是會逐漸向好；經(jīng)濟持續(xù)下行。

      貳 衰退期債券和股票投資都有機會

      根據(jù)喬治，滯漲期不適合投資金融工具，而適合投資硬資產(chǎn)，包括能源和黃金類股票、大宗商品、房地產(chǎn)和藝術(shù)品等。而衰退期非常重要，因為之前所有下跌的指標在這個階段都會反轉(zhuǎn)，包括通脹見頂回落、短期利率和債券收益率持續(xù)下行，此時債券的投資機會開始顯現(xiàn)。而低通貨膨脹率和低債券收益率使得股票具有投資價值。最終，當(dāng)央行開始釋放流動性之后，股票市場迎來進一步的上揚，經(jīng)濟周期也進入第一階段—復(fù)蘇期。

      叁 等待隧道盡頭的光

      我國經(jīng)濟在今年3月份達到頂點之后，開始下行，經(jīng)濟進入第三階段—滯漲期。近幾個月，利率水平持續(xù)走低，預(yù)期經(jīng)濟進入衰退期，而剛剛公布的九月份的貨幣供應(yīng)量數(shù)據(jù)看，社融存量增速仍在下行，但是廣義貨幣的增速已經(jīng)觸底回升，疊加近期政策表態(tài)，預(yù)示經(jīng)濟有可能進入了第四階段。投資者在這一階段無需悲觀，要為即將到來的股市上漲做好準備。在隧道盡頭的光，一定是政策寬松的信號發(fā)出的。

      肆 市場綜述

      A股探底回升。美國9月份的消費者價格指數(shù)同比漲幅均超預(yù)期，但美國國債收益率回落，科技股上漲。

I. From stagflation to depression  

China’s economy is shifting from stagflation to depression. According to George Dagnino, there are four stages in economy. They are recovery, prosperity, stagflation and depression. The characteristics in stagflation stage include that money supply slows down, a weak currency, economy slows down and would go below potential growth rate, profit growth rate slows down, interest rate goes down and commodity prices reach peak levels. And when it comes to depression stage, the economy slows down further and remains at a low level due to that enterprises cut costs and monetary policies remain stringent. But with the cost coming down the marginal profitability of enterprise would turn positive. In summary the characteristics of depression stage include that economy is continuously weak and money supply still remains at low levels. But once interest rate comes down money supply would go up. Stock market performs poorly in depression stage. But when money supply comes up, it would perform well. 

      II. Bond and stocks would perform in depression stage 

According to George, in stagflation stage one should not invest in any financial products. Rather he or she should invest in hard assets such as commodity, gold, property and arts,etc. Depression stage is very important as all of the leading indicators would reverse. The interest rate would peak out as well as inflation. Bond is a good investment in depression. And with the falling interest rate and bond yields stocks also offer investment value. Eventually central banks would inject liquidity into the financial markets. Stock markets would go up further. 

      III. The light at the end of the tunnel 

In the case of China’s economy it peaked in March this year and entered stagflation period. Recently, we noticed that interest rate came down. Meanwhile broad money supply (M2) in September also bottomed out. The most important signal is when PBOC would cut reserve ratio for commercial banks. This would mean that economy would enter the first stage and stock markets would rise. So remain patient for the stocks.

      IV. Market summary

A-share bottomed out.The US September CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, higher than expected. But treasury yield fell and tech stocks rallied. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹慎。

      壹 上世紀的“蔡經(jīng)理”

      無論是約翰·聶夫還是彼得·林奇，在他們各自的書中都無一例外的提到一個蔡經(jīng)理。蔡經(jīng)理全名叫做杰拉德·蔡（Gerald Tsai），是上世紀50-60年代富達基金著名的基金經(jīng)理，當(dāng)時是家喻戶曉的一個名人。聶夫是與其同時代的基金經(jīng)理。當(dāng)彼得·林奇在70年代中期加入富達基金的時候，他的母親就是因為蔡經(jīng)理而聽說過富達基金，可見蔡經(jīng)理在美國投資者的影響力。

      貳 蔡經(jīng)理鐘愛題材股

      在其《約翰·聶夫論投資》一書中，聶夫?qū)懙溃翰探?jīng)理買進的都是題材股，這些題材股通常是小公司。在聶夫看來，很多小公司只是因為投資人看好未來的盈利前景而導(dǎo)致股價上漲，是“博傻投資理論”發(fā)揮號令。聶夫因此稱蔡管理的基金是“腎上腺素”支配的基金。1965-1967年三年的時間里，蔡管理的基金年復(fù)合收益率50%，這是令人瞠目結(jié)舌的業(yè)績。而聶夫堅持不參與題材股的炒作，其所管理的基金與蔡管理的狂飆基金的收益差距很大，因而被人批評為食古不化的老頑固和對市場不敏感。

      叁 熊市業(yè)績不佳

      1968年美國股市結(jié)束了10年牛市，開始走入低迷。蔡經(jīng)理的基金業(yè)績也隨即低迷。而聶夫因為做了正確的事，在1968年和1969年都業(yè)績表現(xiàn)出色。蔡從富達基金出來自立門戶后，所管理的曼哈頓基金在1968-1969年遭遇熊市，表現(xiàn)不佳，凈值最多下跌了55%，基金管理規(guī)模也從7億美金下降到5400萬美元。而聶夫管理溫莎基金長達31年，年復(fù)合收益率為13.7%。

      肆 人人都愛蔡經(jīng)理

      為什么追求題材股的基金經(jīng)理會對大眾產(chǎn)生這么大的影響力呢？因為賺快錢更能喚起大眾的情緒，而如聶夫一樣堅守風(fēng)險收益比的基金讓投資人覺得乏味。雖然長期看，聶夫的基金存活的時間要比蔡經(jīng)理的長很多，但是這不妨礙人們?nèi)プ分鸩探?jīng)理為他們在短期內(nèi)賺塊錢。通過投資賺錢很容易嗎？芒格曾經(jīng)說過：投資從來不是一件容易的事。

      伍 主要市場均下跌

      A股和港股大幅下跌，美股小幅下跌。美國9月份消費者價格指數(shù)周三公布，同時摩根大通和達爾塔航空公布3季報。

I. Tsai in the 1960s 

Both John Neff and Peter Lynch mentioned a famous fund manager called Tsai, whose full name is Gerald Tsai. Tsai was a fund manager with Fidelity in the 1950-60s and was a household name at that time. Actually when Peter Lynch began his career in Fidelity in the mid-1970s, his mother knew Fidelity because Tsai ever worked in this firm. 

II. Tsai loved small companies 

Tsai mainly bought small companies with promising prospects, i.e. theme stocks. But these stocks might have this or that kind of problems that would not guarantee a long-term earnings growth potential. Neff hence called his funds controlled by adrenaline. From 1965 to 1967 Tsai achieved 50% return for each of these three years, which was really impressive and outstanding. Neff did not chase those small stocks and his fund’s performance was far lagged behind that of Tsai. He was therefore criticized as being stubborn and having no nerve for the market. 

III. Tsai did not perform well in bear market

Yet from 1968 the US concluded 10-year bull market goal and turned into bear market. Tsai left Fidelity and set up his own fund called Manhattan Fund. The fund suffered 55% loss at the worst time and the AUM shrank from initial US$ 700 million to 54 million. Neff’s fund performed well during the bear market. He managed his fund called Windsor Fund for 31 years and achieved annual compound return of 13.7%. 

IV. Reasons that everybody loves Tsai 

So why investors only remember Tsai rather than Neff? The reason is that everyone likes those who can make money in a fast way rather than those who make money in a steady way. Even if everyone knows that fund managers such as Neff can make money for them for a longer period of time, they can’t help chasing those fund managers like Tsai with the expectation that these fund managers can make big money in a short period of time. Well, Munger ever said: investment is never easy.

V. Market sentiment is low worldwide  

Both A-share and HK stocks fell sharply while the US stocks fell slightly.The US September CPI is to be released on Wednesday. Also JP Morgan and Delta Airline will report 3rd quarter earnings on Wednesday.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹慎。

      壹 2008年金融危機肇始于次貸危機

      2008年美國的房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)生次貸危機繼而傳導(dǎo)到全球，引發(fā)全球金融危機。根據(jù)橋水公司的創(chuàng)始人達利奧的分析，美國房地產(chǎn)市場在2005年就呈現(xiàn)出泡沫的特征。具體表現(xiàn)為：資產(chǎn)價格偏高；市場預(yù)期目前的高價會繼續(xù)快速上行；普遍存在看漲情緒；利用高杠桿融資買入資產(chǎn)；賣家提前很長時間買入，旨在投機或應(yīng)對未來價格上漲的影響；新買家進入市場；貨幣寬松政策進一步助長泡沫，而收緊貨幣政策會刺破泡沫。達利歐還指出影子銀行也是泡沫時期的一個共同特征。在美國的房地產(chǎn)次貸危機中，影子銀行也發(fā)揮了作用。影子銀行使各方都受益，因為監(jiān)管缺位降低了貸款成本，降低了借款利率和還款難度，投資者的回報也能增加。但影子銀行通常會導(dǎo)致危機。

      貳 人們對危機認識不足

      2007年次貸危機剛剛發(fā)生時并沒有被認為是很嚴重的危機。時任美聯(lián)儲主席伯南克在2007年3月28日的國會聽證會上表示：次貸市場問題對整個經(jīng)濟和金融市場的影響似乎可以得到控制。2007年10月，美國道瓊斯指數(shù)創(chuàng)出了歷史新高14198點，隨后就因為美國銀行業(yè)績受到次貸壞賬計提的減值影響而股市大跌。誰也不曾料到，一年之后，股市下跌了50%以上。達利奧也坦言盡管他們進行了深入調(diào)研，考察了各類市場（特別是衍生品市場）參與者的持倉情況。但他們得出的結(jié)論是沒有人能夠掌握持倉的全部情況。很多風(fēng)險都是未知的應(yīng)該是2008年次貸危機最終演進成全球金融危機的一個深層次原因。

      叁 危機無法預(yù)防

      從達利奧的描述中，我們可以看到身處危機之中其實很難推斷危機的進程和危機影響的幅度，無論是普通的市場參與者還是美聯(lián)儲的高官，亦或是達利奧這樣的有先見知名的投資人。20世紀以來，危機總是隔一段時間來過一次。但人們除了應(yīng)對，似乎沒有任何能夠避免危機發(fā)生的辦法。所有危機背后都有人們急于逐利的心理，怕失去發(fā)財機會的恐懼以及全然不考慮風(fēng)險的盲目樂觀的情緒。如果真有能夠避免危機發(fā)生的方法，那就是遏制人性的貪婪。這顯然是無法做到的。

      肆 油價上漲壓抑股市

      A股下跌，港股上漲。油價上漲令市場擔(dān)憂經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇受阻，美股下跌。

I. 2008 Global Financial Crises  

Ray Dalio, the founder of the famous hedge fund Bridgewater, analyzed 2008 global financial crises in his popular book “A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises”. The crises were originated from property bubbles, which actually began from 2005. According to Dalio the US property market had typical bubble characteristics,which included high-rocket high asset prices, market expectation that high prices could still go higher, bullish sentiment, high leverage, new entrants to the market, and easing monetary policy that would boost bubbles while stringent monetary policy would burst bubbles. Moreover, shadow banking also played a role in the subprime crises. Due to lacking supervision measures, shadow banking provided lower cost loans to borrowers and those invested in shadow banking could get higher return. But shadow banking can lead to crises.  

II. Few people can fully understand the crises

Few people knew that subprime crises could lead to global financial crises. On March 28th,2007 when the Fed chairman Bernanke made testimony before the Congress he said that the negative impact that subprime issues had on the overall economy and financial markets were well under control. Dalio had tried to collect data on risk exposures of market participants but in vain. He concluded that nobody could have the whole picture of the risk exposure. In October 2007 DOW reached the highest point in history at 14810 and then saw itself to be nearly halved in one year. 

III. Lessons that can not be learned

In summary nobody, whether he is the highest-ranked official or common investor, can predict how far and how deep a crisis could go. While we experienced one crisis after another since the beginning of last century, we might have learned how to deal with it rather than how to prevent it from happening.Behind every crisis are those factors including the eagerness to be on board,the horror that might miss a fortune and the blind optimism. If there is a way to prevent crises, it should make people not become greedy. But there is really no way to accomplish that goal.

IV. High oil prices dented stock markets 

A-share fell while HK stocks rallied. The US stocks fell due to the rising oil prices. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹慎。

      壹 A股三季報

      首先是中美三季報的情況。7-9月份，政策頻出。有一些行業(yè)和板塊因為突發(fā)政策而造成較大沖擊，因此，三季報應(yīng)該不會有較好的表現(xiàn)。但市場總是“幾家歡樂幾家愁”，也有一些行業(yè)增長較快，上市公司業(yè)績增速會保持較快增長。不過，也要考慮因為市場已經(jīng)計入了較高業(yè)績增速，因此，季報出來反而成為利好出盡股價下跌的觸發(fā)點。我們看到個別新能源上市公司上周就遭遇了這種“利好出盡”的沖擊。另外，9月中下旬開始的限電舉措對部分上市公司的業(yè)績也會有影響。

      貳 三季報盈利增速預(yù)計下行

      今年一季度A股上市公司歸母凈利潤同比增幅為58.70%，二季度回落至41.75%；一季度和二季度凈利潤環(huán)比增幅分別為59.28%和9.66%。二季度的盈利增長主要是周期和成長板塊貢獻的。預(yù)計三季度利潤同比和環(huán)比增速都將回落。

      叁 美股三季報

      根據(jù)FactSet的數(shù)據(jù)，二季度S&P500公司的利潤同比增長89.3%，是2009年Q4以來的最大增速。其中87%的公司盈利超預(yù)期，創(chuàng)2008年以來新高。美股三季度盈利將從二季度創(chuàng)紀錄的水平下滑7.4%，成為歷史上盈利第二好的季度；預(yù)計2021年全年的美股盈利將較2020年增長62.0%，達到創(chuàng)紀錄水平。本周開始，美股市場將迎來三季報發(fā)布的密集期，達美航空、摩根大通、貝萊德、美國銀行、花旗集團、摩根士丹利等82家美股上市公司將發(fā)布三季報。

       肆 政策

      對政策而言，中美方向正好相反。中國市場投資人期待的是央行10月份或至少四季度能夠降準降息；而美國則會收緊流動性，最晚在11月份宣布縮減債券購買規(guī)模，12月份開始實行。中美金融周期逆向而行，對市場的影響如何有待觀察。近期，各種漲價也是市場關(guān)注的焦點。我們一直認為通脹是可持續(xù)的，具體可參見你在哪個陣營？、通脹漲幅回落可能是暫時的及這可能是一個不一樣的超級周期。但由于中國豬肉價格仍處在低位，總體消費價格指數(shù)的上漲還不明顯。而美國的消費領(lǐng)域通脹有可能會維持在較高水平。

      伍 市場綜述

     上周五A股和港股均上漲。美國9月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期，但應(yīng)不會影響縮減債券購買規(guī)模進程。

I.  The 3rd quarter results of A-share 

The first major focus of the market would be the upcoming 3rd quarter results of both A-share and the US listed companies. As policies targeted some sectors were brought up in July, these sectors might not deliver good results.In contrast some sectors enjoy fast growth companies in these sectors are expected to deliver strong earnings growth in 3rd quarter. Yet,there is also the risk that market would sell on good news and these companies might see their stock prices correct sharply after earnings release. It did happen to some companies last week. In 1Q2021 and 2Q2021 A-share earnings grew at 58.7% and 41.75% year-on-year respectively and 59.28% and 9.66% quarter-on-quarter. The 3rd quarter earnings might come down both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 

II. The 3rd quarter results of the US companies

The US companies would release 3rd quarter results starting this week. According to FactSet, the 2nd quarter earnings of the US listed companies grew 89.3% year-on-year, the best quarter from 4Q2009. 87% of the listed companies beat market expectation. The 3rd quarter earnings are expected to slow 7.4% quarter-on-quarter from 2rd quarter record levels. The earnings of the US listed companies are expected to grow 62% in 2021, which is unprecedentedly high in history. 82 companies would release results this week in the US including JP Morgan and Delta Airline, etc. 

III. Monetary policies 

The monetary policies of China and the US are different. Market expects that PBOC would cut reserve ratio for banks in October or 4th quarter. But Fed is expected to announce taper in November and execute taper in Dec. What A-share and the US stock market would perform as Sino-US monetary policies are divergent is still uncertain. Also another focus is on the price increases of upstream raw materials. We discussed this in “Which side do you take你在哪個陣營？?”.Inflation is to be here for some time. For China CPI might still at relatively low levels due to that swine prices are low. The US CPI might be maintained at high levels.

IV. Taper is to come soon

The non-farm payroll data in September of the US came in lower than expected. Yet this would not delay taper, which is expected to be announced in November and executed in December. 

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權(quán)，授權(quán)上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構(gòu)成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責(zé)任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權(quán)，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權(quán)的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹慎。